Osborne's tax cut dilemma
Cutting taxes could cause at least as many problems as it solves for the Chancellor.
By George Eaton Published 27 July 2011 10:46
Ever eager to distinguish himself from the coalition, Boris Johnson has called for a programme of tax cuts to "stimulate growth". The National Insurance rise, he says, should be reversed and the 50p rate should be scrapped to demonstrate that London is "open for business". George Osborne, who has long hinted that he will abolish the top rate by 2013, must be tempted to take up Johnson's call for a supply-side revolution. Even today's Sun attacks him for refusing to accept that a "dash for growth is not incompatible with reducing the deficit." (Although in a post-hacking age that may no longer be a surprise.)
But it's worth noting that cutting taxes could cause at least as many problems as it solves for the Chancellor. The Lib Dems are willing to support the abolition of the 50p rate but only if it is replaced by a range of new property-based taxes - exactly the sort of measures likely to enrage the right-wing press. Worse, the spectacle of a Conservative Chancellor cutting taxes for the richest one per cent while VAT remains at 20 per cent would be political gold for Labour. It would destroy Osborne's already dubious claim that "we're all in this together." Polls have consistently shown that the 50p rate is popular with voters. A recent Sunday Times/YouGov survey, for instance, found that 33 per cent think the top rate should be scrapped, compared to 49 per cent who think it should be made permanent. Significantly, 51 per cent would like to see the starting threshold brought down from £150,000 to £100,000, with 29 per cent opposed.
In addition, unless Osborne can demonstrate that his tax cuts would be self-financing he would either have to slow the pace of deficit reduction (something he has repeatedly ruled out) or make even larger spending cuts. The five-year departmental budgets, we have been repeatedly told, are set in stone (the average cut is 11 per cent; 19 per cent if we exclude the NHS and international development - the ring-fenced departments.), which leaves Osborne with the option of making further cuts to welfare spending, something hardly likely to appeal to the Lib Dems. The Chancellor's room for manoeuvre, it is becoming increasingly clear, is shrinking by the day.
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8 comments
One Tory pundit was saying that if tax is cut for the rich it will stop them from dodging paying their taxes. So, by the same logic, if we give poor people free designer gear- will it stop them rioting and stealing? The rich tax dodgers are breaking the law on an even greater scale, so jail them too. Lots of wealthy people pay their taxes quite happily and are taking the flak for those who avoid paying.Reminds me of why they invented socialism in the first place.
@Mike Thomas - totally agree.
Its progress, would work and it would also make the economy more competitive.
It would be extremely unpopular and Labour would not support it as the party is hostage to the public sector.
I disagree, you have forgotten one of the coalition tax policies to introduce a £10,000 income tax threshold.
Introduce the threshold sooner for everyone and cut government spending to finance it now.
I doubt that would be unpopular.
How about introducing a tax band higher than the current one. Perhaps a 70p rate for those earning over £250,000. Halve VAT making life easier for normal working people. Do this in tandem with closing tax loopholes and the deficit would be killed in months and proper necessary spending could return.
"It would destroy Osborne's already dubious claim that "we're all in this together."
Surely you mean utterly discredited claim.
I believe Boris's views are about posturing for the mayoral election. He knows that the Coalition is deeply unpopular and he thinks that setting himself apart will garner support in a city where the scrapping of the 50p tax rate would benefit a large demographic.
Most people change there behaviour over time e.g rather than trying to earn an extra buck or a fraction of it they look for better work life balances, also labour is a mobile resource and also a productive one too, most countries wish to attract the most skilled resources with open arms, there are many factors which reduce the expected gain of increasing labour taxes on mobile resources. The best tax on wealth is on immobile resources like land / country piles as this cannot move country.
@How about introducing a tax band higher than the current one. Perhaps a 70p rate for those earning over £250,000.
I am all of 100% tax provided the lazy ar**** on benefits will get up in morning and go and collect it.
The sense of entitlement of beggars writing in NSM is pathetic.