Chávez reveals cancer treatment

"I neglected my health," says the Venezuelan president.

After weeks of speculation over the state of his health, Hugo Chávez has revealed that he has had surgery to remove a cancerous tumour. In his first video appearance since being hospitalised in Cuba, Chávez said doctors had removed "cancerous cells" from his body. "This [is] the new battle that life has placed before us," he said.

In an uncharacteristically short speech, he ruefully reflected, "I neglected my health and I was reluctant to have medical check ups. It was a fundamental mistake for a revolutionary."

The Venezuelan president was rushed to hospital on 10 June after suffering abdominal pain while in a meeting with Fidel Castro. He later underwent emergency pelvic surgery and, as we now know, a second operation to remove a tumour.

It's still unclear when Chávez will return to Venezuela and the news has dismayed his supporters, who were confident that he would win re-election next year. The opposition is arguing that it is unconstitutional for Chávez to govern the country from abroad. Others have criticised him for initially denying claims that he had been diagnosed with cancer.

But most importantly, as I wrote on Monday, Chávez's absence has highlighted the lack of any obvious successor to his Bolivarian Revolution. Aware of this fact, his supporters are discussing the possibility of a Castro-like succession which would see Chavez's older brother, Adán Chávez, take over the presidency. As today's New York Times notes: "no government figure has occupied the political void created by [Chávez's] absence more assertively than his older brother, Adán Chávez, a physicist whose radical thinking has often been to the left of the president's."

In the meantime, Venezuelan politics remains as polarised as ever. On Saturday, the Vice Foreign Minister, Temir Porras, said: "The only thing that has metastasized is the cancer of the Miami Herald and the rest of the right-wing media."

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.