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Hilton, Osborne and the fight for Downing Street influence

Are we seeing the rise of the realists?

During Gordon Brown's brief summer honeymoon of 2007 David Cameron headed off to Africa for one of his many rebranding/detoxifying exercises. The timing was terrible. Floods had hit parts of the UK including his own constituency of Witney. He should not have gone, or at least cut short the trip, and he knew it, turning to his adviser Steve Hilton (according to Andrew Rawnsley's account in "The End of the Party") to declare: "I should have stayed at fucking home."

Hilton, now director of strategy to PM Cameron, is the man behind many of those set pieces, the very acts of public relations -- hugging hoodies and huskies -- that Ed Miliband now is being urged to copy as his personal ratings suffer. Ironic, therefore that Hilton's own position is being widely discussed this weekend.

The current talk appears to be prompted by a recent piece in the Spectator in which James Forsyth wrote:

Steve Hilton, the Prime Minister's guru and Downing Street's reformer-in-chief, is increasingly frustrated by this backsliding [on public sector reform]. One Whitehall ally worries that he could soon walk away in frustration if all these policies carry on being delayed and diluted.

Writing in today's Mail on Sunday, Forsyth says:

Hilton might be only an 'adviser', but in the Coalition's first year in office he has been a far more powerful figure than most Cabinet Ministers. The opinions of few others matter more to the Prime Minister than those of his long-time friend and ally.

Hilton's frustration apparently stems from the achingly-slow pace of the civil service machine. There exists particular animosity with Ed Llewellyn, Cameron's chief of staff who is said to "disapprove of Hilton's combative approach to officialdom", according to Forsyth's sources.

ConservativeHome editor Tim Montgomerie comes at the story from a slightly different angle. In a piece in today's Sunday Telegraph -- "How the realists eclipsed the radicals inside Downing Street" -- Montgomerie writes:

The big U-turns on health and prison sentencing reflect the rise of the realists, led by George Osborne, and the partial eclipse of the radicals, led by Steve Hilton, David Cameron's political guru.

John Rentoul chips, writing in the Independent on Sunday:

Hilton is the advocate of always going further and faster, which was also the mantra of the Blairites in the later New Labour years. His attitude to public opinion is that it is there to be led. This is not entirely reckless, although on the NHS it was hard to see how public opinion could have been turned round (at least, not without a new health secretary).

A picture is emerging of George Osborne exerting more and more influence on decision making. It's a picture that the Chancellor will find agreeable and one probably that he is more than happy to see disseminated. Here's the uber-strategist taking the pragmatic course when necessary.

All of which suggest trouble ahead when "Osborne the realist" meets "Chancellor Osborne the ideologue" if economic growth fails to materialise and the private sector fails to deliver jobs as he's promised it will.

To retreat from Andrew Lansley's NHS plans is one thing. To retreat from his own economic Plan A, something else altogether.

 

 

 

 

9 comments

Shaun's picture

I really don't understand why the media attempt to depict Osborne as some politically astute and profoundly Machiavellian figure. The author is guilty here too when he says "Here's the uber-strategist taking the pragmatic course when necessary." In reality, Osborne is a shrill, pallid embarrassment of a Chancellor. He's the great pretender.

matthew fox's picture

@ Shaun

I think your being charitable, the man has single-handed killed the recovery, and added tens of billions to the national debt.

yuccaplant's picture

The media love a mandleson type figure i guess they'll take anyone at the moment

Problem for the New Statesman's picture

Trouble is, the coalition has already delivered jobs in the past year. It is true that 130,000 public sector jobs have gone (let's be honest, these people added nothing to the economy); but 520,000 private sector (and therefore value-added to the economy) jobs have been created. It's half way through the first half and the Coalition is 2-0 up. George Osborne's defence is great and it's almost game over.

Guy Debored's picture

Look at that photo.
What an effing square.
Bar ends, indeed!
I'm no fan of Boris - but at least he looks like a proper Tory on a bike.

Mr. Divine's picture

Bar ends are quite useful on a cross bike but what is more important are toe clips. His bike doesn't have any of those which leads me to suspect that he doesn't know how to ride properly.

mcquade's picture

"but 520,000 private sector (and therefore value-added to the economy) jobs have been created"

Break that figure down and you find that 70% were created before Osborne's CSR while the government was till enjoying the rewards of a growing economy left to it by Labour and 30% afterwards. In other words, Osbornomics has contracted job creation by over 50%. That is be far a clearer indication of the impact of the ideologue.

Mr Damage's picture

Mr Divine,"he doesn't know how to ride properly".
I think your spot on mate, For a blloke who is painted with such glory, he should have stayed at fucking home, where the fuck is your helmet mongoose!, and those shorts look like my grandmothers panties, a seven year old could do this blokes job.

EMT's picture

A realist who shows what he is realy like, wonder what he has in his back-pac, could be his helmet - whoops!

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