Economists ask: where is Osborne's Plan B?
Signatories of a letter to the Observer include several academics who backed the scheme last year.
By Samira Shackle Published 05 June 2011 13:28
A group of leading economists has called for George Osborne to change course on his deficit reduction strategy, saying that it is "stalling".
A letter to the Observer signed by 47 academics and economists said:
Recent economic figures have shown that the government urgently needs to adopt a Plan B for the economy. As economists and academics, we know the breakneck deficit-reduction plan, based largely on spending cuts, is self-defeating even on its own terms. It will probably not manage to close the deficit in the planned time frame and the government's strategy is likely to result in a lot more pain and a lot less gain.
We believe a more effective strategy for sustainable growth would be achieved:
- through a green new deal and a focus on targeted industrial policy.
- by clamping down on tax avoidance and evasion, as well as by raising taxes on those best able to pay
- through real financial reform, job creation, "unsqueezing" the incomes of the majority, the empowerment of workers and a better work-life balance.
These are the foundation of a real alternative and it is time the government adopted it.
Damagingly, several people have signed who were signatories of a letter to the Sunday Times last year which supported the Conservatives' approach. This indicates worry across the board about the slow rate of growth. Britain's economy grew by a sluggish 0.5 per cent in the first three months of this year but inflation rose by more than expected to 4.5 per cent.
The former chief economist at the Cabinet Office Jonathan Portes has also called for a change of course. Now director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, he said: "You do not gain credibility by sticking to a strategy that is not working." Sadly, Osborne does not appear to see it that way.
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31 comments
The good times are over.. It's pay-back time: Labour didn't spend wisely. Labour didn't invest it squandered. Taxes will rise, government spending cuts will happen. In all honesty, would Labour be doing anything differently!! maybe the time-scale, but the end result would be the same. A vastly reduced state! Because you can only have what you can afford...
Osborne would wonder what the problem is - he's bang on target, Labour still to blame for their wicked socialist ways when it was their half-arsed neo-liberalism that helped turn a global downturn into a crisis, the govt. are on course flogging everything including what is left of the NHS, the Post Office and gifting tax cuts to their corporate backers no-one would have dreamed possible a few years ago. For Osborne it's going swimmingly, surely.
Listening to Osborne on the Today programme, he's nowhere near thinking of a Plan B as he thinks Plan A is working.
He set great store by an IMF report that will be published later today so he expects it to be complimentary.
When your economic policies are making things WORSE and you refuse to change them then it means that what you are doing is ideologically driven rather based on what is actually happening in in the real world. This exposes Osborne and the Tories as being economically bankrupt and that is what they will end up inflicting upon the economy with those least able to adapt to the cuts being left the worst off.
Lots of pain but NO GAIN.
"This exposes Osborne and the Tories as being economically bankrupt"
Looks like the IMF disagree with you!
Even the International Monetary Fund concluded, “the idea that fiscal austerity stimulates economic activity in the short term finds little support in the data.”
See Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain etc for proof. Excessive loans at low interest rates in a currency you do not control lead inevitably to defaults.
Record debt growth is due to the finance sector’s crimes not ‘Labour’s debt crisis’, as the Conservative Party claimed, but, as George Osborne admitted, “private sector debt was the cause of the crisis’.
The government attack on public services is switching debt from the government’s books to private households.
Britain’s banks rely on us for support, to pay bonuses (£22 billion this year) and dividends, while the pay of those on low to medium incomes is forecast to flatline until 2015 – average pay will be no higher by 2015 than it was in 2001 – capitalism does not deliver the goods, unless you are a capitalist.
Total public sector net debt, including the financial interventions, that is, the £1.342 trillion we paid to rescue the banks, was £2.252 trillion.
Before 2008, the last government borrowed £350Bn. But what did our kids get for it?
Over the same time, Labour precided over the fastest decline in the UK industrial base since the 1970's. Industry is "grubby" and not the the champaign and canopes political elite.
Per the article, "through a green new deal and a focus on targeted industrial policy"
The £350Bn (two Japenese earth quakes) is enough to develop a world leading sustainable engery industry. The UK could now be a net exporter of engery and products.
Simple fiscal expansion does result in long term growth but does cause long term damage.
There isn't a Plan B.
These clueless twats haven't even got a Plan A.
Correct me if I'm wrong but 'maybe' germany and france is doing better and experiencing higher growth is due to their ability to export goods, bigger manufacturing sector to sell their way out?... something UK has very little of?...
Anyway no matter what you say... we are in this for the long haul... if you don't like it move to erm... china... :D
"Recent economic figures have shown the government urgently needs a Plan B."
Why ?
Plan A is to reduce the deficit whilst maintaining economic growth and boosting employment.
All this is happening. Despite fears to the contrary growth has not collapsed, we aren't back in recession, unemployment is falling, employment is rising and the UK is making the slow transformation away from an economy driven by its housing market to one where exports and manufacturing contribute more.
Sure, inflation is higher than expected, due to global rises in oil and food, and this is cutting into living standards, but this is largely outside of the Chancellor's control.
Though of course inflation would be very much worse with Ed Balls in charge as higher borrowing would cause the pound to fall, thus making imports of oil and food even more expensive.
Steve 5/6 at 12:56
Thank you for confirming my stereotypes of the typical intellectual capacity of a labour supporter with your offensive and useless opinion.
Growth of 0.5% after a retraction of 0.5% leaves us at zero.
When every major economy in the world seems to be showing genuine growth we are stuck at 0.
Surely Osbourne should prove he understands figures by finding a way of helping the economy rather then creating the highest youth unemployment of all time and attacking the public sector for the mistakes the banks (his backers) have made!
Stu, I will correct you, your definitely wrong.
Anything else old man?
@Indu
"But what did our kids get for it?"
Massive improvements in infrastructure, from hospitals to be born and die in to schools and universities to be taught in. Not being born into poverty, having trains that don't crash every 5 minutes.
"Over the same time, Labour precided over the fastest decline in the UK industrial base since the 1970's. Industry is "grubby" and not the the champaign and canopes political elite."
LOL! Are you stuck in a time warp in 1979? Did the whole Thatcherite revolution pass you by? Free markets? Picking winners? Lame ducks?
"The £350Bn (two Japenese earth quakes) is enough to develop a world leading sustainable engery industry"
Rather poor taste to be using the tragic events in Japan as a scale.
@CD
"Thank you for confirming my stereotypes of the typical intellectual capacity of a labour supporter with your offensive and useless opinion"
Yawn, this is the internet pal.
John A
1) UK growth is pretty much in line with our peers. Germany has been strong recently but is weakening rapidly, America despite its massive deficit and QE is weak and Australia is back in recession. So who is having all this genuine growth ?
2) Which bankers are Osborne's backers ? A genuine question. Having imposed a permanent bank levy and through the Vickers Commission agreed to split the banks up Osborne has done more to rein in the bankers than any other country and far more than Gordon Brown ever did. So why the cheap abuse ?
'change course on his deficit reduction strategy, saying that it is "stalling" NOW!! what deficit reduction strategy would that be?
Germany and France have both shown growth of around 4% in the time period Britain has shown 0% growth. Yes, let us cut cut cut Mr Osbourne it is clearly the right way to go, to be honest I dont think he is cutting enough, how much money is spent keeping the Lib Dems a seperate Party? If we cut the Lib Dems im sure we would save a few quid to chuck at the moaning middle and lower classes.
"Plan A is to reduce the deficit whilst maintaining economic growth and boosting employment. All this is happening."
Economy has flatlined in the past six months, output lost in Q4 2010 not fully recovered in Q1 2011, OBR growth forecasts downgraded four times, May's manufacturing, exports, consumer confidence figures, all down. Where do you live Nick, La-La-Land?
Matty your back! nice one old man... was just a maybe but hey we are lacking in that area anyway something that labour neglected.. again...
Luddite writes, 'what deficit reduction strategy would that be?'
What is the purpose of what Osborne is doing if it isn't to reduce the deficit? Surely it couldn't be to privatise everything that moves.
"UK growth is pretty much in line with our peers"
Nonsense. Germany grew by 1.5% in Q1 2011, France by 1%, and neither of them had negative gowth in the previous quarter. i.e. germany is growing at three times faster than us and France twice as fast. They're a country mile ahead of us.
George has a fail-safe strategy. Plan 9 from Outer Space! He hasn't got a Plan B - the plan he has is out of this world. No, Ronnie is not on the cast list - too flaky!
Black & White
we need an economy diversified away from government spending and private sector borrowing (in the last decade we were happy to see booming tax reciepts from bouyant finance and property sectors - but that is not a recipe for long term economic health).
what we do need is low and stable taxes for the productive sectors of the economy and higher taxes from the non-productive sectors - i.e. property taxes higher, income and business taxes lower.
in particular the north, northern ireland and scotland need lower business and corporation taxes to diversify there economies - some of these are economies are built on 50% government sector.
investment in infrastructure should be held or increased at the expense of other types of government spending which should be lowered.
lower government spending will also help keep interest rates lower - this will also help the economy diversify into export sectors and help keep households solvent.
i would also like to see lower taxes for the least well off via increases in the tax-free threshold - taking many people on the lower income scales out of tax altogether.
bingo - a sensible economic policy very similar to the coalitions - there on the right path but need some minor tweeks
It looks like Eddy S has never heard of VAT or National insurance, otherwise, he would have mentioned both have been increased by Osborne.
@chris
You've accounted for £30Bn. What about the other £300Bn Labour borrowed? Where has it gone (a clue is China)?
That thick cnut aint got a plan owt. I'd sack him, but it would tek 4 more years.
George Osborne's Plan B should be to resign because he is economically illiterate.
@ Trueblue - re. your comments:-
If you must denigrate the "middle and lower classes" at lest try to use correct spelling and punctuation. My family, with degrees in Physics and Engineering, contribute greatly to the economic recovery. Your crude, divisive remarks contribute nothing.
Red-faced apologies for my 'lest' typing error - at least (got it right that time) it will make you all smile!
If plan A fails the Tories will be out for a generation.
The cost will be the millions unemployed and a truly broken society.
Does this sound like a repeat experience to anyone??? (1997?)
when i say cost I mean the cost of plan A, not the tories being out (lol)
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