Beltway Briefing

The top five stories from US politics today.

1. Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney has released a new video on unemployment a day after he was criticised as "out of touch" by the Democrats for telling a jobless crowd in Florida that he too was unemployed.

The video, titled 20,000,000 Bumps In The Road, attacks Barack Obama's claim that "there are always going to be bumps on the road to recovery." A seies of unemployed figures in the film declare: "I'm an American, not a bump in the road."

The Romney camp calculated that "President Obama's 20 Million Bumps In The Road Would Stretch From The White House To Los Angeles".

2. Rising GOP star Michele Bachmann has received a poll boost after her impressive performance in Monday's debate. A poll of New Hampshire voters had Bachmann tied for second place with Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination.

The survey by Magellan Strategies put frontrunner Mitt Romney on 42 per cent, followed by Paul and Bachmann at 10 per cent each. Sarah Palin is on 7 per cent, with Rudy Giuliani on 6 per cent, although neither has confirmed whether they will enter the race.

Tim Pawlenty received 5 per cent in the poll, followed by Newt Gingrich with 4 per cent, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman with 3 per cent each, and Rick Santorum with 2 per cent.

28 per cent of those surveyed said that Bachmann gave the strongest performance at this week's debate, with 39 per cent preferring Romney.

3. Sarah Palin has made her first TV appearance since the release of 14,000 emails from her time as Alaska governor.

"It certainly shows the priorities in what was once a respected cornerstone of our democracy, our mainstream media and we see that priorities are quite skewed," said Palin on Fox Business Network's "Freedom Watch". "I hope folks who read the emails learned a lot about energy independence, fish and game conservation, protecting second amendment rights, why I opposed Obama's stimulus package." The emails were released in response to freedom of information requests filed by the media during the 2008 presidential election.

Palin also commented on the downfall of Democratic congressman Anthony Weiner, who resigned his seat after posting lewd photos of himself to women online.

"Anthony Weiner, from henceforth after his personal indiscretions were disclosed, he was going to be rendered impotent basically in Congress and he wasn't going to be effective," she said. "So obviously [resigning] was the right thing to do. Day late dollar short, though. I think he should have resigned when all of this came to light."

4. Republican challenger Tim Pawlenty has admitted that he was wrong not to challenge Mitt Romney over his support for health-care reform at Monday's debate. Pawlenty, who coined the term "ObamneyCare" on Sunday to describe the similarities between Obama's plan and Romney's, told Fox News's Sean Hannity: "I should have been much more clear during the debate ... I don't think we can have a nominee that was involved in the development and construction of ObamaCare and then continues to defend it. And that was the question. I should've answered it directly. Instead I stayed focused on Obama."

The former governor of Minnesota acknowledged his mistake in a tweet on Thursday night.

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5. Barack Obama has said that he and his wife Michelle have no plans to have another child in addition to their two daughters. The US President told ABC's Good Morning: "I think Michelle's general view is 'we're done' ".

Obama joked that he's prepared for a crisis in the White House next month - his eldest daughter becoming a teenager. He said: "I understand that teenage-hood is complicated. I should also point out that I have men with guns that surround them, often, and a great incentive for running for reelection is that it means they never get in a car with a boy who had a beer."

Commenting on Anthony Weiner's resignation, Obama said: "I wish Representative Weiner and his lovely wife well ... Obviously, it's been a tough incident for him, but I'm confident that they'll refocus and he'll refocus, and they'll end up being able to bounce back."

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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Why Chris Grayling is Jeremy Corbyn's secret weapon

The housing crisis is Labour's best asset - and Chris Grayling is making it worse. 

It feels like the classic Conservative story: wait until the election is over, then cancel spending in areas that have the temerity to vote Labour. The electrification of rail routes from Cardiff to Swansea – scrapped. So too is the electrification of the Leeds to Manchester route – and of the Midland main line.

But Crossrail 2, which runs from north to south across London and deep into the capital's outer satellites, including that of Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, will go ahead as planned.

It would be grim but effective politics if the Conservatives were pouring money into the seats they won or lost narrowly. There are 25 seats that the Conservatives can take with a swing of 1 per cent from Labour to Tory, and 30 seats that they would lose with a swing of 1 per cent from Tory to Labour.

It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Conservatives were making spending decisions with an eye on what you might call the frontline 55. But what they’re actually doing is taking money away from north-west marginal constituencies – and lavishing cash on increasingly Labour London. In doing that, they’re actually making their electoral headache worse.

How so? As I’ve written before, the biggest problem for the Conservatives in the long term is simply that not enough people are getting on the housing ladder. That is hurting them in two ways. The first is straightforward: economically-driven voters are not turning blue when they turn 30 because they are not either on or about to mount the first rungs of the housing ladder. More than half of 30-year-olds were mortgage-payers in 1992, when John Major won an unexpected Conservative majority, while under a third were in 2017, when Theresa May unexpectedly lost hers.

But it is also hurting them because culturally-driven voters are getting on the housing ladder, but by moving out of areas where Labour’s socially-concerned core vote congregates in great numbers, and into formerly safe or at least marginal Conservative seats. That effect has reached what might be its final, and for the Conservatives, deadly form in Brighton. All three of the Brighton constituencies – Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion – were Conservative-held in 1992. Now none of them are. In Pavilion they are third, and the smallest majority they have to overcome is 9,868, in Kemptown. The same effect helped reduce Amber Rudd’s majority in Hastings, also in East Sussex, to 346.

The bad news for the Conservatives is that the constituencies of Crawley, Reading, Swindon and in the longer-term, Bracknell, all look like Brightons in the making: although only Reading East fell to Labour this time, all saw swings bigger than the national average and all are seeing increasing migration by culturally-driven left-wing voters away from safe Labour seats. All are seeing what you might call “Hackneyfication”: commuters moving from inner city seats but taking their politics with them.

Add to that forced migration from inner London to seats like Iain Duncan Smith’s in Chingford – once a Conservative fortress, now a razor-thin marginal – and even before you add in the appeal of Jeremy Corbyn’s person and platform, the electoral picture for the Conservatives looks bleak.

(It should go without saying that voters are driven by both economics and culture. The binary I’ve used here is simplistic but helpful to understand the growing demographic pressures on the Conservatives.)

There is actually a solution here for the Tories. It’s both to build more housing but also to rebalance the British economy, because the housing crisis in London and the south is driven by the jobs and connectivity crisis in the rest of the United Kingdom.

Or, instead, they could have a number of measures designed to make London’s economy stride still further ahead of the rest, serviced by 5 per cent mortgages and growing numbers of commuter rail services to facilitate a growing volume of consumers from London’s satellite towns, all of which only increase the electoral pressures on their party. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.