Beltway Briefing

The top five stories from US politics today.

1. Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney has released a new video on unemployment a day after he was criticised as "out of touch" by the Democrats for telling a jobless crowd in Florida that he too was unemployed.

The video, titled 20,000,000 Bumps In The Road, attacks Barack Obama's claim that "there are always going to be bumps on the road to recovery." A seies of unemployed figures in the film declare: "I'm an American, not a bump in the road."

The Romney camp calculated that "President Obama's 20 Million Bumps In The Road Would Stretch From The White House To Los Angeles".

2. Rising GOP star Michele Bachmann has received a poll boost after her impressive performance in Monday's debate. A poll of New Hampshire voters had Bachmann tied for second place with Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination.

The survey by Magellan Strategies put frontrunner Mitt Romney on 42 per cent, followed by Paul and Bachmann at 10 per cent each. Sarah Palin is on 7 per cent, with Rudy Giuliani on 6 per cent, although neither has confirmed whether they will enter the race.

Tim Pawlenty received 5 per cent in the poll, followed by Newt Gingrich with 4 per cent, Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman with 3 per cent each, and Rick Santorum with 2 per cent.

28 per cent of those surveyed said that Bachmann gave the strongest performance at this week's debate, with 39 per cent preferring Romney.

3. Sarah Palin has made her first TV appearance since the release of 14,000 emails from her time as Alaska governor.

"It certainly shows the priorities in what was once a respected cornerstone of our democracy, our mainstream media and we see that priorities are quite skewed," said Palin on Fox Business Network's "Freedom Watch". "I hope folks who read the emails learned a lot about energy independence, fish and game conservation, protecting second amendment rights, why I opposed Obama's stimulus package." The emails were released in response to freedom of information requests filed by the media during the 2008 presidential election.

Palin also commented on the downfall of Democratic congressman Anthony Weiner, who resigned his seat after posting lewd photos of himself to women online.

"Anthony Weiner, from henceforth after his personal indiscretions were disclosed, he was going to be rendered impotent basically in Congress and he wasn't going to be effective," she said. "So obviously [resigning] was the right thing to do. Day late dollar short, though. I think he should have resigned when all of this came to light."

4. Republican challenger Tim Pawlenty has admitted that he was wrong not to challenge Mitt Romney over his support for health-care reform at Monday's debate. Pawlenty, who coined the term "ObamneyCare" on Sunday to describe the similarities between Obama's plan and Romney's, told Fox News's Sean Hannity: "I should have been much more clear during the debate ... I don't think we can have a nominee that was involved in the development and construction of ObamaCare and then continues to defend it. And that was the question. I should've answered it directly. Instead I stayed focused on Obama."

The former governor of Minnesota acknowledged his mistake in a tweet on Thursday night.

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5. Barack Obama has said that he and his wife Michelle have no plans to have another child in addition to their two daughters. The US President told ABC's Good Morning: "I think Michelle's general view is 'we're done' ".

Obama joked that he's prepared for a crisis in the White House next month - his eldest daughter becoming a teenager. He said: "I understand that teenage-hood is complicated. I should also point out that I have men with guns that surround them, often, and a great incentive for running for reelection is that it means they never get in a car with a boy who had a beer."

Commenting on Anthony Weiner's resignation, Obama said: "I wish Representative Weiner and his lovely wife well ... Obviously, it's been a tough incident for him, but I'm confident that they'll refocus and he'll refocus, and they'll end up being able to bounce back."

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May's U-Turn may have just traded one problem for another

The problems of the policy have been moved, not eradicated. 

That didn’t take long. Theresa May has U-Turned on her plan to make people personally liable for the costs of social care until they have just £100,000 worth of assets, including property, left.

As the average home is valued at £317,000, in practice, that meant that most property owners would have to remortgage their house in order to pay for the cost of their social care. That upwards of 75 per cent of baby boomers – the largest group in the UK, both in terms of raw numbers and their higher tendency to vote – own their homes made the proposal politically toxic.

(The political pain is more acute when you remember that, on the whole, the properties owned by the elderly are worth more than those owned by the young. Why? Because most first-time buyers purchase small flats and most retirees are in large family homes.)

The proposal would have meant that while people who in old age fall foul of long-term degenerative illnesses like Alzheimers would in practice face an inheritance tax threshold of £100,000, people who die suddenly would face one of £1m, ten times higher than that paid by those requiring longer-term care. Small wonder the proposal was swiftly dubbed a “dementia tax”.

The Conservatives are now proposing “an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs”. The actual amount is TBD, and will be the subject of a consultation should the Tories win the election. May went further, laying out the following guarantees:

“We are proposing the right funding model for social care.  We will make sure nobody has to sell their family home to pay for care.  We will make sure there’s an absolute limit on what people need to pay. And you will never have to go below £100,000 of your savings, so you will always have something to pass on to your family.”

There are a couple of problems here. The proposed policy already had a cap of sorts –on the amount you were allowed to have left over from meeting your own care costs, ie, under £100,000. Although the system – effectively an inheritance tax by lottery – displeased practically everyone and spooked elderly voters, it was at least progressive, in that the lottery was paid by people with assets above £100,000.

Under the new proposal, the lottery remains in place – if you die quickly or don’t require expensive social care, you get to keep all your assets, large or small – but the losers are the poorest pensioners. (Put simply, if there is a cap on costs at £25,000, then people with assets below that in value will see them swallowed up, but people with assets above that value will have them protected.)  That is compounded still further if home-owners are allowed to retain their homes.

So it’s still a dementia tax – it’s just a regressive dementia tax.

It also means that the Conservatives have traded going into the election’s final weeks facing accusations that they will force people to sell their own homes for going into the election facing questions over what a “reasonable” cap on care costs is, and you don’t have to be very imaginative to see how that could cause them trouble.

They’ve U-Turned alright, but they may simply have swerved away from one collision into another.  

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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