Cameron's NHS spending pledge is worthless

The PM claims that spending will rise but the figures show that it will be frozen or even cut.

One of David Cameron's "five guarantees" on the NHS is that spending on the health service will rise "in real terms" over the course of this Parliament. In his speech on the NHS today, the PM boasted that there would be "£11.5 billion more in cash for the NHS in 2015 than in 2010". He added: "We are not cutting the NHS. In fact, we are spending more on it."

Cameron is referring to the fact that spending on the NHS, which currently stands at £102.9 bn, will rise to £114.4bn by 2014-15, a cash increase of £11.5bn. But what he ignores is that all of this increase will be swallowed up by inflation. The purchasing power of the NHS will be progressively reduced as the price of drugs and equipment continues to rise.

Once we take inflation into account, health spending will be frozen or even cut. As Professor John Appleby, chief economist at the King's Fund, writes in the latest edition of the British Medical Journal, "by 2014-15 the amount of money the NHS has to spend in real terms, its purchasing power, will have gone down by 0.9%." Thus, not only will Cameron fail to meet his flagship pledge to increase spending on the NHS "in real terms", he will fail to even protect it from the cuts.

Of course, George Osborne could announce an inflation-busting increase in health spending to ensure the government keeps its pledge (although that would mean even larger cuts elsewhere). But for now, it's simply dishonest of Cameron to claim that he is raising spending on the NHS. Without any new money, his "spending guarantee" is worthless.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.