Romney and Bachmann 2012?

Romney wins the first debate, but Bachmann receives the biggest boost.

The first Republican presidential debate had a clear winner: Mitt Romney. As the frontrunner, all Romney had to do was sit-tight, not say anything stupid and look like a potential president. Last night, he managed all three and, as such, won by default. Tim Pawlenty flunked his chance to attack Romneycare (attempting to give healthcare to the uninsured being Romney's Achilles heel, naturally), Newt Gingrich sounded like an angry nutcase and Ron Paul, well, is a nutcase.

US blogs, however, went wild for one candidate: Michelle Bachmann. Salon gave her a rave review. As did Time. Ezra Klein is a long-standing admirer, if not supporter. The main dissenting voice was Andrew Sullivan, who thought Klein and co were buying into a Bachmann Bubble.

Sullivan, however, is being a little unfair. Bachmann won't win the nomination. She has low name recognition and her views are too far to the right for most moderate voters. But that is not the point. Where Bachmann would come into her own, however, is on the ticket with a candidate like Romney, whom the Christian right of the party regard with suspicion. She brings the same Tea Party votes as Palin, without Palin's toxic baggage.

Like Palin, Bachmann is a God-fearing, child-rearing, gun-toting, pro-life voting, homo-haranguing right-winger. Unlike Palin, however, Bachmann is able to string a sentence together and, while in the main reprehensible, her views have an ideological framework to them. Bachmann would plug many of the holes in Romney's CV, without being as much as a liability as Palin proved to be.

Romney and Bachman 2012? It could happen.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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