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The Tory plan for a permanent majority gathers pace

Boundary changes, Scottish independence and party funding reform could prevent Labour ever winning a

Labour strategists have long warned of a nightmare scenario in which the party would likely never govern again. First, the coalition's proposed boundary changes are approved, depriving Labour of an estimated 25 seats (the Conservatives would have won 13 fewer seats at the last election and the Lib Dems would have won seven fewer).

Second, Alex Salmond holds a referendum on independence and Scotland votes Yes. Of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland that automatically would be lost, 41 are Labour-held but just one is Conservative-held. Finally, the Tories and the Lib Dems introduce a cap on party donations, depriving Labour of much of its trade-union funding and bankrupting the party.

Labour is consigned to permanent opposition and a new age of Tory hegemony is born.

So far this strategy, masterminded by George Osborne, is proceeding remarkably well (Osborne doesn't support Scottish independence but he will have done the parliamentary arithmetic). The new constituency boundaries are likely to be approved by 2013 and the Alternative Vote, which would have made the formation of a "progressive alliance" more likely, has been rejected by an overwhelming majority.

Meanwhile, an independent Scotland is more likely now than at any other point in the 304-year history of the Union. There is no doubt that David Cameron is being sincere when he vows to defend the United Kingdom with "every fibre in my body", but not everyone in his party takes the same view. A 2009 ConservativeHome poll of 144 party candidates found that 46 per cent would not be "uncomfortable about Scotland becoming independent".

Never assume

To many Tories, an independent England – economically liberal, fiscally conservative, Eurosceptic, Atlanticist – is an attractive prospect. The Conservatives have not held more than one seat in Scotland for the past 19 years – there is little political incentive to preserve the Union.

As Michael Portillo told Andrew Neil on This Week in 2006: "From the point of political advantage, the Conservatives have a better chance of being in government if Scotland is not part of the affair. You are continuing to assume the Union is sacrosanct. That is not an assumption I make any more."

The third plank of this strategy – party funding reform – is about to return to the agenda. As today's Observer reports, the Tories and the Lib Dems are advancing plans to impose a cap of £50,000 on political donations. The paper notes:

An analysis of funding conducted since David Cameron became Tory leader shows Labour would have been deprived of 85 per cent of its income since 2005 if the limit had been in place. This is because the vast majority of its funds have come from hefty union donations well above the £50,000 level.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, would have forfeited just 50 per cent of their income, as the party receives a higher proportion of its income from wealthy individuals who tend to give sums below the proposed £50,000 cap.

As I've pointed out before, Labour is now remarkably dependent on the unions for its funding. Back in 1994, when Tony Blair became Labour leader, trade unions accounted for just a third of the party's annual income. They now account for more than 60 per cent.

In the last quarter, private donations accounted for just £59,503 (2 per cent) of Labour's £2,777,519 income. Just two individuals donated to the party, one of whom was Alastair Campbell. By contrast, union donations accounted for 90 per cent of all funding.

I'm a strong supporter of the trade-union link, but it's unhealthy for a progressive political party to be so dependent on a few sources of income. Labour must broaden its funding base as a matter of urgency.

But the wider challenge is clear. If history is not to record Gordon Brown as the last Labour prime minister, the party must show as much ruthlessness, cunning and ingenuity as the Tories.

140 comments

Toby James's picture

Just as important for the Tories is to head off any reform that could make the Lords more powerful

thinkov's picture

there'll be new oppositions set up when the tories do the stitch up

A one party tory state is unthinkable

Dave C's picture

On the question of the proposed boundary changes, I'd recommend a level-headed article by Robert Worcester et al on pages 32-3 of the June edition of Total Politics. (Unfortunately, it's not online.)

Some quotes:

"If the Tories believe that they can correct the bias of the system against them simply by equalising constituency sizes they are, from their standpoint, sadly mistaken."

...

"Depending on the precise method of calculation, estimates of the contribution of electorate size to the total Conservative-Labour bias differ very slightly, but our own calculations, and all those we have seen from academic teams, agree that the number of seats involved is in single figures."

Lou's picture

@Ricardo

No apology needed. I can't answer your questiona at the moment, I'm not in a Union and would have to look into it for you. I previously researched the issue of forced subscription which was why I was able to inform you that it is a voluntary contribution.

@Prodicus.

To the best of my knowledge, unions no longer use central funds to donate to parties. The donations are purely from the voluntary levy (plus any interest it accrues) to the political fund.

Union Steve's picture

Ther is a world out side london. Not everybody is going to vote Tory next time. We remember in the north las time

Stuart Eels's picture

Rolfthe Ganger

No I don't believe in Father Christmas. So this Scottish Office report commissioned by Westminster and the Scottish Parliament is a propaganda organ? Shame we English don't have an equivalent.

However I can't see a lot to argue with your next comment and look forward to an amicable divorce as soon as the SNP put forward their plans for a full divorce and not Independence Lite as they are now talking up!

Fergus Pickering's picture

Hugo Daddy, your irony is far too subtle for this lot. They think what you say about a Tory Hegemony is TRUE. Can you imagine it? They've never heard of Gladstone, or think he was the inventor of a bag.

Philip Davies's picture

The 2005 GE shows that the Labour can never win again if Scotland becomes independent narrative is not borne out by reality.In 2005 Labour easily won a majority of seats in the UK minus Scotland, even with a narrow vote lead over the Tories.

Seaman T's picture

Never is a long time in politics.

Fergus Pickering's picture

Steve, what on earth would your North England ocialist Republic do for money? Up to now you've been using mine.

Geraint's picture

We should have been devious and crafty when we were in power. We should have reformed party political donations, even if the other parties objected to it. And, after 2005, we should have pressed ahead with real electoral reform. Labour was too nice and too fair to it's opposition, when in government. We believe in democracy. It is clear that this ConDem coalition does not! We should have kicked them when we had a chance.

It is true what they say, no good deed goes unpunished.

Stuart's picture

This article is wrong. The changes he is talking about will not result in Tory hegemony in the new smaller UK. It will result in a shifting of the centreground of politics to the right. Labour will move to the right as will the Tories and Lib Dems. That would be unwelcome for lefties but it will not mean the end of Labour.

David Price's picture

It serves Labour right. Tories said devolution would be a stepping stone to Scottish independence; Labour said 'oh no'! They were wrong and the Tories were right. It just so happens that it suits to Tories to lose those Scottish Labour seats, but what a price! A great shame, and an immense act of political vandalism by Labour. They will, sadly, pay for this.

Labour's funding needed to change in the nineties and Blair did his best but the Brownite faction of the Labour party didn't want it; instead they always saw Labour as an exclusive party of and for the trades unions. They ran a 'closed shop' in their best traditions; the fact is that most normal people are turned off by unions and ideological politics so don't want to join - or fund - Labour. If the Tories end up changing the funding arrangements, then again it serves Labour right; they should have reached out to normal people and not been exclusively the political wing of the unions.

Olympiai97's picture

Scotland will not be independent before 2020 so that's scare tactics. The rest is simple. At least half of the Labour MP's in any parliament do no want to be in government, it's an embarrasment, and the Labour leadership know this but find it impossible to contend with. Ed Miliband needs to do something very soon to make an impression on the UK voter or he will be out after the next general election. So far there is no sign that he is even bothered.

terence patrick hewett1's picture

@ Hugo Daddy

It is the assumption that we all know what Victorian means: hypocritical, preachy, introverted, un-enlightened sexual repression; everything negative. But in reality the world in which we live is still fundamentally the world which the Victorians and Edwardians reformed from the horrors of the 18th century; and into which the forces of delusion are trying, with great success to drag us back. The myth of alleged Victorian prudery is no better described than in the story of the piano legs draped to prevent the male of the species going mad from sexual lust. The legs of the furniture at the time were gussied up for good practical reasons. They had no refrigerators, so they had a lot of larders, so they had a mouse problem, so they kept cats. It was to stop the cats from sharpening their claws on the legs. Secondly, they had large families because they did not abort their children; it was to stop damage to the legs of the furniture by all those wheeled wooden toys. The myth actually arose from Captain Frederick Marryat's 1839 book, Diary in America, as a satirical comment on prissiness. Nobody took this seriously at the time so they must be laughing their heads off at us. Most of our views of the Victorians are now obtained from contemporary text; what they really thought was never committed to paper, although some idea may be got from Mayhew's London Labour and the London Poor, Morrison's A Child of the Jago and The Diary of a Nobody by George and Weedon Grossmith.

Seaman T's picture

(usually about a week after the next big mistake).

trevor marwood's picture

Do you actuall believe that the North of England would just stand by and allow the south to dictate forever.Many of our armed forces are from families that live in the North it would,nt be the first time in
history that we come down and take what we want thats after starving you of food,water and engineering skills that keeps your infrastructur going.Also we may utilise a few of your weekend away places too.Be carefull what you wish for !!!!!!

Frankly2's picture

In response to some chap's request for a reference to source material on Scotland subsidizing Blighty, here you are, my dears: http://bit.ly/jNzPHS

You can also go direct to GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) here: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS

Always willing to oblige those who don't know how to Google.

Frankly2's picture

Apropos of Scotland subsidizing Blighty, you may also care to take a dekko at the Scottish Office report that was officially suppressed for 30 years because it showed that, according to its author, Professor Gavin McCrone, Scotland needed the UK like a hole in the head: "What is quite clear is that the balance of payments gain from North Sea oil would easily swamp the existing deficit whatever its size and transform Scotland into a country with a substantial and chronic surplus (...) Thus for the first time since the Act of Union was passed, it can now be credibly argued that Scotland's economic advantage lies in its repeal." (http://www.oilofscotland.org/mccronereport.pdf)

Lou's picture

Blair did his best to change funding? You're right there, he was more than happy with union funding pre election but he went from social democrat to capitalist on funding once in power. He continued Thatcher's stranglehold on unions and bowed to the greater God that is the corporate world.

I seem to recall he took huge donations from the likes of Bernie Ecclestone. Michael Levy, Lord Sainsbury, Michael Montague, Paul Drayson, Paul Hamlyn, Robert Gavron, Sir Gulan Noon to name a few - and many of them were rewarded with peerages and/or ministerial roles. So Blair and co hardly ran a closed shop on funding and with regard to union funding, I'd rather millions of ordinary men and women funded a party than the predominantly financial sector multi millionaire tax avoiders who fund the Tory party.

lusina's picture

Osborne is a failed strategist. He failed in gaining the Tories a majority in 2010 despite all the good wind blowing in their favour. He is also failing miserably in his next important strategy - to wake up the economy. So discard Osborne as a complete failure and you are on good proven ground. He has now buried himself out of sight so that at least the unpopularity of the government would not have a face to point an accusing finger at. We all know that the Scots (nor the Welsh) will ever consider breaking up from the Union. They are too clever to ever think that kind of thing. Let the Tories continue to dream of their permanent hegemony in the country. It will never happen. Nor will Labour be deprived of the Scotish vote. When it comes to national elections, the Scots will view the matter differently and we know where their heart beats. The least problematic is the funding cap. This might actually be beneficial to Labour. Be assured that the 50,000 figure will affect the Tories and the Liberals more since everyone is convinced that they receive much more in excess of that figure. There are plenty of alternatives as to how to retain the present level of funding for the Labour Party from the Unions and other donors(and, indeed,increase them) and staying within the limits of the law. One need not be an Einstein to come with such alternatives. One last thing, the Liberal vote will almost vanish by next elections. The last local elections have shown the direction where these votes will go. Most of them to the Left. The Tories have already reached the pinnacle of that source and can't obtain more in relative terms, whilst their penetration into Labour vote will be negligible. No, it's not hopeless for Labour. Indeed, as I see it, it is more hopeless for the Tories (and disastrous for the Lib-Dems). The Tories have, above all, a failed strategist at the helm who has proved more than once that he lives in a world of his own - in a rarified environment of privilege and make-believe completely out of touch with what is happening on the ground.

FA's picture

"the Alternative Vote, which would have made the formation of a "progressive alliance" more likely, has been rejected by an overwhelming majority"

When this is so obvious why did so many New Statesman writers and Labour supporters oppose AV? Was giving Clegg a kicking worth it?!? A looming Conservative majority was a self-evident threat. The only solution to the party funding threat is for Labour to go further than the Tories - put the cap for annual donations at 1000 pounds a year. Only allow natural persons who are British citizens and tax resident in the UK to donate. This will level the playing field between the parties after the loss of trade union funding. Labour needs to be proactive.

Aaron Bowers's picture

no one should vote, the whole system is corrupt.

jie4v7i14's picture

Might as well post this, a girl from Tiger Bay, Cardiff, Shirley, with help from the vallies Manics. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jUnwTu35U8

jie4v7i14's picture

Might as well post a bit of vallies Tom, getting into US republican ladies knickers, as he does,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UxU8s7Au0A

Abie Vee's picture

There's a (presumably) "Englishman" here ranting on about mythical races!
My my my... I haven't laughed so much since Granny caught her tits in the mangle. Talk about chutzpah! As fine an example of English superciliousness as one could wish for. You show me a pure-bred
"Englishman" and I'll show you a flying pig.

jie4v7i14's picture

Ok Stuart Eels, so I beg to differ. You have your views, I have mine. And to me, your views are hitler-like fascist, zieg heil to you mate. Up your backside.

jie4v7i14's picture

Anyone want to follow on on the genius of Spike. They are thin on the ground on sane madness, He was a good bloke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmJSrVNKnr0

Dave C's picture

More on the effect of the proposed boundary changes in today's Guardian.

"... the Tories would lose 16 seats – 5.2% of their total; Labour would lose 17 – 6.6%; and the Liberal Democrats a crippling 14 – 24.6%."

Tory plans to redraw electoral map could hit Lib Dem seats hardest: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jun/05/boundary-review-liberal-d...

Boundary changes: how could they affect the UK? http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/datablog/2011/jun/06/boundary-change-...

reneexoc's picture

Well done all you assholes who voted no in the av referendum - you sure did stick it to Nick didn't you. Showed him what sort of a person you are (stupid ? gullible ?)

Whig's picture

Labour have got their just desserts. The Labour vote in Scotland used to be weighed not counted so they thought let's have devolution so we can run things in Scotland even more and let the West Lothian question go hang. In their arrogance they never imagined they'd have a challenger. With Scottish MSPs, Welsh Assembly Members and MEPs we simply don't need so many MPs at Westminster anymore so their numbers should be cut to reflect the new reality.

RolftheGanger's picture

The article is a mishmash of muddled thinking with doubtful propositions, perhaps to stimulate discussion? Though, I doubt it.

There is no longer a block Labour vote from Scotland to automatically return Labour MPs to Westminster. The SNP won 69 of 73 constituencies in the direct election voting part of the recent Holyrood elections. They took votes off all parties. Labour lost their top team and two other parties lost their leaders. The rump of Labour in Holyrood is only there courtesy of the list vote system.

The large number of Labour MPs from Scotland returned to Westminster at the last GE was mostly about using the party best placed to prevent Tory government. Didn't work, so the electorate are turning to the SNP. Have we seen a vigorous program of those Scots Labour MPs putting up effective opposition to the Tories, protecting Scottish interests and setting out an attractive platform for Scotland? Has hell frozen over lately? Those Labour MPs a re a hang over from a previous era. A bit like the old guard communists still in the parliament, after the Soviet Union went into meltdown. They will be gone, never to be replaced, regardless.

Seeing that GE vote as pro-Labour is wishful thinking. The Scottish electorate have lost trust in Labour. And which part of the split-personality Labour persona are they supposed to support? Blairite policies aimed at 'middle england'? Or tax and spend neo-socialist profligacy and incompetence aka G Brown that got the UK into the current mess? Labour in Scotland is now an empty shell, no leaders, no vision, no policies, skin deep unity and lots of hidden nasties waiting for the light of day once the SNP wave sweeps through municipal government in the West of Scotland next year.They are comprehensively horlicksed.

So the whole argument that it is all a Tory plot, is hot air. By all means rally a true working class championship party in England but all the false logic is a failure to look at reality, start afresh and build a party that will win, legitimately, in England, on English votes, to deliver for all residents of England. Good luck and I mean it.

Ted Body's picture

You are such a cock aren't you David Price, you are big cheesy bellend...

…and Lou your bang on mate...

as for rolfthegranger 'The article is a mishmash of muddled thinking with doubtful propositions? perhaps to stimulate discussion? Though I doubt it?' Yeaaahhhh boooooooiii, and yours isn't? Is yours used to stimulate discussion? Is it?

'So the whole argument that it is all a Tory plot, is hot air' Yeah mate you should know you seem to be full of it too.

I was going to say tl;dr, but I thought I might as well read it as it took so long for you to bloody write it I might as well give you the common courtesy of reading it.

Anyway cheers for the good luck, thanks for that, and I am so glad you mean it. xXxOoOxXx

Mike Thomas's picture

Labour opened that Pandora's Box in Scotland and rigged the electoral system in their favour.

You were warned and now you reap the whirlwind.

As for independence, everything within Scotland's territorial waters is Scotland's. Everything registered legally in Scotland is Scotland's too.

So the 'oil' might help settle the debts then.

As for the boundary changes, these would be the changes to reduce (not remove) the bias in favour of Labour? It would seem over time people keep moving away from Labour constituencies to live elsewhere - wonder why?

And Labour never, ever get elected into power again too?

Brilliant, cherry on the cake.

Luddite's picture

Tom
29 May 2011 at 18:27
Good, fantastic news, in fact. After Labours shambolic immigration policy of importing millions of immigrants, at the expensive of the entire country, in return for their future votes, they deserve to be out of power forever.

Tom's makes a good point. Looks like Labour in England could be howling in the political wilderness for ever more. Here's a thought, maybe we could all move to Scotland and take our immigrant vote with us, after all
the Scots do have wide open spaces, and with the Scottish nationalists not being a racist party, well!! 'maybe a little anti-English' Maybe then we could start to build the new Jerusalem in Scotland's green and soaking land.

Helen Wright's picture

I long for they day when England is an independent nation, free from the back stabbing, racist Celts. Let them take respsonsiblity for their own actions for a change.

However, a continuous Tory government is not a logical conclusion to independence. England nas not always voted Tory. If we had, we would always have a Tory government.

Changed to the way nations are governed will also change the way we vote and bring forward a new politics and bright new future. Remember, Labour gave Scotland a Parliament, because they thought Labour would always rule over Scotland - and look how that worked out. It's a laugh a minute watching them squirm in their can of worms now.

Dave C's picture

Mike Thomas wrote, "Labour opened that Pandora's Box in Scotland and rigged the electoral system in their favour."

How exactly did they do that? For example, under the multi-member system (MMS) that Labour and others devised, the Conservatives recently won 15 seats.

In the 2010 General Election under FPTP, the Conservatives won just 1 seat.

If Labour had wanted to rig the system they would have implemented FPTP at Holyrood.

Stuart Eels's picture

Luddite you fool, they will only charge you for the water as you drown.

Wake up UK citizens, wheres your references, still waiting.

Ivan White's picture

"It is the assumption that we all know what Victorian means"

terence patrick hewett. Your message was very interesting, but perhaps the problem is that there was no such thing as "a Victorian". Victoria was queen for 64 years, and although the pace of change was slower than it is today, Britain in 1840 bore little resemblance to Britain in 1895.

http://cuttingedgeuk.proboards.com/index.cgi

Hugh Markey's picture

Watching the vainglorious English nationalists belting out 'Rule Britannia' was instructive.
If viewing such intense English patriotism does not send blood rushing to the heads of Celts on the fringe of these isles we'll be Dutchmen.

Balkanisation

Tom's picture

ha, ha, ha.

So Labour failed to introduce proportional represntation when it had the chance, failed to reform party funding when they were virtually selling peerages to big donors, campaigned against AV to punish Clegg, lol, as if it was his fault that Labour had messed up the economy and so much else and now as they sow, so shall they reap.
Oh and who says independence would remove 41 Labour seats in scotland, with the momentum the SNP has, it could be removing say 10 Labour seats and 50 SNP.

Aaron Bowers's picture

helen you have alot of issues, please place a comment of fact instead of rasist low-intelligence based swill pig shit please.

Stuart Eels's picture

Frankly

Thank you for your references, I stand corrected you Scots are Gods and we simple English are so stupid.

Tell you what I am so astounded that I will willing come up to Scotland and give you all the help that I can on your Independence Campaign.

I do however find it strange that a present Scottish Office Report is not accepted by a previous Scottish posters and yet you are quoting one thirty years old.

Luddite's picture

What the fuck is the "progressive alliance" Look you political pimps.
Labour no longer represents anyone outside the self-loathing multicultural appeasement lobby. But don't get me wrong. I still believe in social justice, full employment, womens rights, the NHS and quality education for all. That's why i left the Labour party.

bobby's picture

Please do something soon. Another period of socialist government will put us all in the gutter.

Abie Vee's picture

Love it. This is just the manifesto one would expect from a "Little Englander" political party... "Get the waggons in a circle, boys". They can't be serious, can they? Is it really true that these backwoodsmen are eagerly anticipating the break up of the United Kingdom? Wow! Well I'm sorry to sound like a party poop-er, but, in such a scenario, it is highly unlikely that The Little Englander Party will control the huge multi-cultural cities at the heart of their English Utopia... the great manufacturing, wealth-generating, industrial and commercial centers, will remain obstinately red and yellow politically, and, of necessity, outward-looking and internationalist... a cash milk-cow surrounded by a hostile, uncomprehending, parasitic, sea of Tory-blue rustic shires, wholly dependent on city-generated money for their survival. What a recipe for civil strife... what a recipe for disaster. Bring it on I say! I hope I live long enough to enjoy the fun.

jie4v7i14's picture

The way it is going, Scotland's hand is going to be forced towards independence, perhaps eventually total. And down the line, what with planned reductions of Westminster MP's in Wales, as with Scotland in the recent GE, same could very well happen there, especially if discontent with Westminster rises.

The Queen, it has been reported, is seriously concerned about all this - I don't think she wants to be known in history as the last monarch of the UK. And having to hand over the keys of Balmoral too, one supposes.

zsremrxc's picture

United we stand divided we fall...everyone kind of knows this and anyway there is more than enough common evil for us all to get togther and do something,lets get rid of the first evil (wicked Liars)and make some progress.

Luddite's picture

Labour's already damned for it's divisive politics, and let's be brutally honest, there's no greater cheerleader for Scottish independence then the English. Labour in England are in serious danger of ending up the party of the immigrant and the mouthpiece of Islamic-fascism.

DeanB's picture

Does anyone know how the UK's debt would be divided up, if Scotland does vote for independence? How much goes straight onto the books north of the border?

What's the standard practice when parts of countries secede peacefully?

Is it divided up by population? Or by where the debt was issued? Or by where the money was spent?

Bottom line: how much will Scotland owe on Day 1 as an independent country? And what will be the likely interest rates?

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