Dear Ed . . .
An open letter to the leader of the Labour Party.
By John Whitting QC Published 03 May 2011 18:29
Dear Ed,
I am not a politician. I am a trial lawyer. We are both members of the Labour Party. We are both in the business of convincing our audience that our arguments are correct. While I have never fought a political campaign, I am, like you, in the business of undermining the analysis advanced by my opponent and presenting complex concepts so as to make them comprehensible to intelligent but often uninformed ears. As the chances of my ever having the opportunity to challenge the Conservative position in court are disappointingly low, I offer my trial strategy to you, in the hope that you might find an alternative perspective useful.
I care passionately that our party is re-elected. That will not happen until the public rejects the coalition's line that: 1) it inherited an economic catastrophe caused entirely by the previous administration having "maxed out the credit card" and 2) that it can only be addressed by extreme cuts to government spending. I fear that the electorate is a long way from that point.
The role of the advocate is both destructive and constructive. He exposes the fallacy of his opponent's case, then sets out his own narrative. He does both in a way that his audience can understand. He avoids the jargon and the acronyms and sets the context. He uses statistics but doesn't recite them.
People understand comparisons. Our recent political history – a Conservative administration for 17 years followed by Labour government for 13 years – enables some telling illustrations. Compare the parties' records on debt and deficit. Everyone knows there was a meltdown in the financial markets in 2008. Explain how much it cost them as taxpayers and how it caused a dramatic increase in both public-sector debt and deficit.
Nearly every family in the country has to control a household budget and has had, at some time, to deal with debt. Explain, in household terms, why the credit card analogy is so wrong and why dealing with debt solely by drastically cutting expenditure is so potentially disastrous. Once you have done this, then tie the threads together.
The Conservatives paint a simple picture. Their previous administration was a model of financial and fiscal rectitude. There was no deficit and no debt. Then, under Labour, spending (on the nation's credit card) increased wildly, become uncontrolled and led, inexorably, to financial catastrophe and our current level of indebtedness. To add insult to national injury, all of the money was wasted on the sort of trivia that we all foolishly buy from time to time (our friend the credit card analogy again). It follows that:
- Labour can never again be trusted with the national purse
- Extreme measures must be taken immediately to stop the irresponsible levels of expenditure and
- As the cuts only mean not spending money on things we don't need, they are a good thing in their own right.
Ludicrous as this caricature may be, it has considerable traction in the country. How then do we confront it?
Put debt and deficit into context
We have always had a national debt. It was neither invented by, nor accumulated solely under, the last Labour government. It has been a fact of national life for hundreds of years under administrations of every political hue, not only in this country, but across the world. Even now, in 2011, our national debt is not at historically high levels relative to our GDP or by comparison with the other major economies of the world.
It has, in fact, been considerably higher for most of our history and for there now to be an annual deficit (still less a national debt) is not therefore, of itself, a sign, or evidence, of fiscal mismanagement. Nor does it represent, of itself, a national emergency requiring an extreme response.
Myth of the maxed-out credit card
Public-sector net debt and public-sector net borrowing (as a percentage of GDP) were significantly greater in 1997, after 18 years of Conservative rule, than they were in 2008 after 11 years of Labour and just before the crisis in the financial market. Over the course of their administration, the Conservatives spent every year, on average, more than they earned. Until the financial crisis in 2008, Labour, on the other hand, was able, again on average, to balance the books.
The levels of spending (again as a percentage of GDP) were almost exactly the same in 2008 as they were in 1997. As to what the money was spent on – and contrary to popular myth – the spending under Labour in 2008 on social benefits was lower than it had been under the Conservatives in 1997, whereas the spending on other, productive items such as health and education was commensurately higher.
The NHS and state education are infinitely better resourced now than they were when Labour took power. That Labour did so while still balancing the books presumably underpinned the Conservatives' pledge, in 2008 (but now conveniently forgotten), to maintain spending at those levels.
The bailout
If it wasn't because Labour were maxing out the credit card, how then did we get from balancing the books over the 11 years to 2008 to an annual shortfall of nearly £100bn by 2011 – and a doubling of the national debt (an increase of £430bn) over the same period? Unfortunately, if a week is a long time in politics, then the market crash in 2008 must qualify as ancient history, and the sad truth is that its catastrophic contribution to the current situation no longer resonates in the public consciousness.
You can hardly blame them. The Conservative narrative has expunged the inconvenient contribution of the collapse of the banking system to our financial predicament so comprehensively, and so implausibly, it would have made a Maoist historian blush. In any event, the figures involved are almost beyond comprehension and the intricacies of both the causes of the crash and the measures taken in response to it would challenge the mind of a PhD in economics.
However, without a cogent and concise explanation of the effect of the crash on the economy, Labour will continue to attract an unfair measure of blame for its consequences.
Some straightforward propositions could hit home. The breakdown in the financial markets was a worldwide phenomenon. To stave off a collapse of the financial system, almost all of the governments in the developed world had, to a greater or lesser extent, to intervene. This caused a dramatic increase in our national debt (and annual deficit).
Hundreds of billions of pounds were spent bailing out Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Northern Rock and were pumped generally into the system The interest that we are paying every year on the money that we borrowed to do so runs to the tens of billions. At the same time, the recession triggered by the banking crash (together with emergency measures taken to stimulate the economy, such as the temporary cut in VAT) caused a slump in government revenue.
This perfect storm has challenged the economies of industrialised countries across the world and the UK has been no exception. It would have been a miracle if any economy could have ridden that storm without increasing their debt and deficit. To ascribe that inevitable effect, sustained globally, exclusively to the spending policies of the Labour administration in the UK is not only misleading, it is absurd.
The strategy
There is a seductive appeal in the Conservatives' analogy of the household with the credit card bill that must be paid off as soon as possible – and whose repayment takes priority over any other consideration. It is a simple message to which the public can relate and which, of course, provides the narrative cover for a programme of cuts at which even Margaret Thatcher would have blanched at the zenith of her power.
Unfortunately for the country, the economic fallacy of treating the deficit like a credit card debt is now plain to see as, a year into the coalition, the tentative recovery of the early part of 2010 has been stopped in its tracks, even before the cuts have really begun to bite. For that reason, the public could now be somewhat more receptive to an alternative approach. How then to explain that alternative in a compelling and comprehensible fashion?
It is safe to assume that not everyone is familiar with Keynes's General Theory, nor is a dry exposition of competing economic analyses likely to gain traction with the electorate. A more profitable avenue may lie, as the Conservatives discovered, with an analogy with the household budget. The critical distinction would lie in the characterisation of the debt.
Rather than an outstanding bill on a credit card, the UK's debt can, and should, be seen as the national mortgage which, for reasons very largely outside the control of the government, had to be increased vastly to enable the economy to continue to function.
There will be few members of the public (particularly among the "squeezed middle" to which Labour should be reaching out) who are not familiar with the extension of mortgage borrowing to meet a financial challenge: whether to fund the care costs of an elderly relative, an extension of the home to accommodate a new (or returning) member of the family, to cover a period of unemployment, or to fund a business venture. They would rightly be resistant to charges of fecklessness for doing so: for those of us without the luxury of a generous trust fund, it is a commonplace in life that one sometimes has to borrow additional funds to tide the family over during a difficult period or to get a venture off the ground that will in time generate an income.
Neither would they consider the overriding imperative in their household budget to be the immediate repayment of that borrowing. Certainly they would plan for the debt to be repaid, but they would aim to do so in the long term, over a period and a rate that the household could reasonably bear.
To apply the Conservative remedy in this context is to demonstrate its absurdity: the elderly relative would be removed from the care home, the nascent business and its assets sold off, the mortgaged property sold off and the family home sold off. The household may now be homeless with no means of generating an income, but at least the mortgage would have been paid off.
Labour has been too defensive for too long about its economic record. In the months after last year's general election, it allowed the coalition to set the mood music with its endless repetition of the mantra of the maxed-out credit card and the "inherited financial mess". It may be that a new administration would always have had the exclusive ear of the public for a honeymoon period. Be that as it may, the time has come to strike back.
The public now knows the extent of the coalition's programme of cuts and knows not only that theyse go infinitely beyond a prudent trimming of the household expenditure but that they hit the poorest hardest. It is also starting to see the folly of wholesale and arbitrary retrenchment when the economy is at its most vulnerable. It is now ready to lend Labour its ear.
Our message to the public must be coherent, comprehensible and compelling. It if is not, the public will not be giving us its vote.
John Whitting is a QC and member of the Labour Party.
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24 comments
The problem is that the country is of the centre-right.
The Labour Party leadership by being deficit deniers and playing the obvious political card of WE WOULD NOT CUT THIS OR THIS OR THIS has lost the argument in the minds of the voter.
The voters know and understand the situation.
It will take a generation for the Labour Party to get that trust back. It will take a generation for voters to forget. It will take a generation for Labour to win again.
Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister.
Well. They may not represent all views, or even the majority views. But they're the options we have.
As for tribal politics -- funny how its perceived as an "issue" now the blues have scraped together the keys to no. 10. I'd say the same for the debate on 'fairness'. We weren't debating these before, eh? Maybe something changed on that fateful day almost a year ago?
Your last question is too broad for an internet forum. But would recommend you pay more attention to the news and go find out information for yourself to answer it.
"The problem is that the country is of the centre-right."
Then why did the majority (52%) of said country vote for one of the two main centre-left parties (Labour or Lib Dem) compared to a mere 36.1% for the Conservatives?
Well Marcus,
Given the Tories couldn't win an election outright I'm not convinced you are correct.
We will see the outcomes of the Coalition's approach before the next election, no rhetoric will be able to disguise that.
The Govt approval and voting intention polls certainly contradict you and have done for some time.
Taxi for Marcus
The mortgage analogy is a good one.
You're Mr. UK and you're earning a £100,000 a year and servicing a mortgage of £37,000, a very small mortgage by most standards.
In 2007 and 2008, events force you to borrow more and you're now servicing a mortgage of £75,000 - still quite small.
Just to make it interesting, unlike mere mortals Mr. UK will live indefinitely and will never retire so he's got until the end of time to pay off the £75,000.
Great letter John.You are right to be concerned that we have been too defensive for too long on the economy.
@John Whiting.
I think it was a huge mistake, for Labour to allow the coalition to 'set the mood-music'.
I remember feeling very frustrated at the time, that the news channels did not question the Tory rhetoric/lies, they just went with it and took the general public with them.
Labour were fixated with their leadership contest and quite simply were not there to fight their corner.
I believe that people are wising up to the lying toffs and economic data is talking volumes.
Cameron needs an economic recovery to survive, but their policies are achieving the complete opposite.
@Marcus.
Cameron will never be a 'real prime minister'.
What is Labour policy on the economy? Keep funding the public sector on borrowed money and debt in the hope that it will give people money in their pockets to spend in the private sector? People on benefits etc spend in the local economy so it all goes back to government etc. I get that, but we are in so much debt, that we can not sustain public sector wages and on a very topical note, public sector pensions. At least the coalition are looking in to this. I fear Labour lives for the day and one day when Ed goes to get his own public sector pension, the cupboard will be bare.
Haven't we done the massive public sector bit for the last 10 years? Fine, but we are still in debt. Worse still, the banks and utility companies are taking us all for fools and Labour just propped them up. Rather than take them on, they prefer to support the unions and promise them things they can't afford for votes.
Labour have no alternative economic policy to the coalition. At least in 5 years time we will be less debt ridden and can spend what we have, rather than borrowed.
Economics has changed, as has the workplace. Labour need to modernise.
of course, the banks will still win in the end.
@C Baker.
I'm afraid you are a perfect example, of a person who has fallen into the 'Tory trap'.
'At least in 5 years time we will be less debt ridden'. How? Have you not been following the economic data? Osborne is heading in the wrong direction and sacking hundreds of thousands of people will only make things worse.
Whether you cut deep and hard now, or less deep and slightly slower, you're fiddling while Rome burns.
The country and the world needs heavy investment in climate and energy security measures, these are the real issues we SHOULD be looking at. Arguing one way or another about how to balance the books is like arguing about the mortgage whilst your home is burning.
I agree with the article. The Tories have been allowed, virtually unchallenged,to perpetuate the myth that Labour cannot be trusted on the economy to the extent that most voters now accept this as the truth. Labour need to get on the front foot on this issue as once the public finally accept these lies as the truth they will be doomed at the next election. Time is running out.
Labour can't be trusted with the economy.
I can't trust Luddite to stay in his cage.
"There will be few members of the public (particularly among the 'squeezed middle' to whom Labour should be reaching out) who are not familiar with the extension of mortgage borrowing to meet a financial challenge."
Including George Osborne who extended the mortgage on his second home paid for by the taxpayer to make improvements.
Yeah.. Im not an economist but i wouldnt sell my car to clear my debts if I needed it to get to work..
Lots of lovely words but all these words don't cover up the lies and incompetence of the labour gang past and present - end of boom and bust, lies - education education education ,badly failing standards of education = lies - "invest" in NHS and doctors paid massive amount for less work, spin and incompetence - gold sold foolishly and incompetently: pensions destroyed: welfare system abused: wars fought on lies: Kelly killed by labour spin: brown the bumbling buffoon insults people from labours heartland.
The deficit is massive thanks to the incompetence of brown and his gang and the deficit deniers find all sorts of spin to try to deny this.
The coalition may make some mistakes, but there is an honest attempt with minimum spin being used to try and recover the economy - and he who never makes honest mistakes has never achieved anything.
Labour made mistakes, but were dishonest about their role, left whingers dont like to find out they are incompetent.
So that is where we have been...but where are we going John and Ed? That is what the electorate wants to know. What is your strategy for growth and investment in the economy - the real parameters for considering the deficit ratio.
@Scotty
Well said... Labour is done for I'm afraid, Eddy is no leader, wasted too much time and couldn't find his feet fast enough. They can go on about the their simple measures but in the end if they were in power I would doubt they would have a clue and probably do what the tories are doing. 'Cut slower and less' wow great alternative!
People have simple minds and the credit card analogy is just that. easy to understand and devastating words like DEBT and INTEREST we all understand all too well.
Rob
You are making the mistake of assuming that *all* LibDems at the last electino are of the left.
If you believe today's ComRes poll, the LibDems have 15% of the vote. You can probably assume a significant proportion of these (say 10-15%) are right of centre (Orange Bookers). This is assuming that the 10% or so of the LibDem election voters who have dropped them are more likely to be left of centre.
That means there is 44%-49% centre-right. Add in say 2-3% for the UKIP (they achieved 3.1% share in 2010 but not all their supporters are right wing) that means that you end up at around 46-52% for the centre-right.
Not as clear cut as you might think.
Charles -
Of course, I know I was over-simplifying it horribly and not all Lib Dems are or were centre-left - but I do maintain that it's fair to describe the pre-2010 Lib Dems as, generally speaking, a "centre-left party", especially considering how many times they seemed to be positioning themselves to the left of Labour when in opposition. Put it this way: I doubt that many people voted Lib Dem because they wanted a right-wing government.
But even with your statistics, it's hard to argue the case - as the author of the first comment to which I was replying did - that "the country is of the centre-right".
@Scotty "The coalition may make some mistakes, but there is an honest attempt with minimum spin being used to try and recover the economy - and he who never makes honest mistakes has never achieved anything"
They are gambling with the British economy and losing. Trying to pay off the debt by placing it all on black and its coming up red.
"Honest" "mistakes"? Don't make me laugh. They're lightweight and deceitful. Toxic combination. Forests? Empty Aircraft carriers? NHS reforms? Schools sports? Pensions from CPI/RPI? Boundary gerrymandering?
People like Livers, Rob, Nick and the ever insightful Ang make the mistake in believing that the three main political parties in England actually represent the political views of the population.
They most certainly do not and have more in common with the views of the political classes and so-called liberal elite.
I am no Tory, but i am also no fan of either of the other two parties. I believe we can and need to do much better.
Britain is failing because of these political parties, these career politicians who have never worked in the real economy and these silly tribalist sympathizers who enable the status quo.
Perhaps someone could enlighten me about what the Labour Party, the Tories, or even the Lib Dems would actually do for them?
Any takers?