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What we can learn from Harold Camping

“People will often go to extraordinary lengths to maintain prior beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary.”

By Nelson Jones Published 25 May 2011 17:27

Much fun has been had over the past week at the expense of Harold Camping, the elderly American evangelist whose prediction of the "Rapture" – the taking up to heaven of the saved amid earthquakes and other manifestations of doom – turned out to be somewhat premature.

It may have been the first apocalypse of the Twitter era, but in other respects Camping's prophecy and its aftermath conformed to type. The pattern was laid down on 21 March 1844, when thousands of followers of William Miller gathered on hillsides – many wearing special "ascension robes" supplied by an enterprising local textile manufacturer – waiting for Christ to come in glory. When nothing happened, Miller set a new date of 22 October that same year.

The second failure became known as the Great Disappointment.

While many drew the obvious conclusion that Miller had been wrong, others believed that the prophecy had been fulfilled "spiritually", or that it would happen on some other date. From the Millerites sprang the Adventist movement, one of whose lineal descendents was the Branch Dravidian Church of Waco, Texas.

Many others have played the game, too. Pat Robertson announced in 1980 that the End would come within two years. He recovered quickly enough from the embarrassment.

Each new prophet can explain why his prediction is going to come true where all previous predictions (sometimes including his own) have not. Camping – who already has one failed prophecy behind him in 1994 – is no exception. After the briefest of recalculations, he has now announced that the great event has occurred unseen – and that the End will happen (for real, this time) on 22 October this year.

It's Miller again, almost to the day.

Crack code

So Camping fits into a recognisable religious mould, albeit not an orthodox one. We shouldn't be too surprised. Date-setting emerges naturally from three widespread themes in fundamentalist Christianity: the "young earth" view, which sees history as short and dominated by an interventionist God; belief that the Bible contains an answer to every question; and attraction to the dramatic Apocalypse narratives of Revelation and the Book of Daniel. Together they give a sense of living inside an unfinished story whose end has already been written.

If the Bible is both true and complete, it follows that it ought to be possible to decode it and so work out when the End will come. Books such as Revelation are full of symbols and numbers that invite just such decoding. And if you already believe the world is going to come to an end, it's obviously tempting to figure out the date.

What makes a physical Second Coming different – psychologically – from a purely spiritual afterlife is not that it will happen on earth but that it will happen soon. Hence the urgency. It's natural to view the present moment as uniquely important, as the culmination of history or a moment of supreme peril, largely because we happen to be living through it.

Apocalypse Now is a much more interesting prospect than Apocalypse Some Time in the Distant Future.

Psychogymnastics

You don't have to be a far-out evangelist to think this way. In a modified form, we can see it in the claim that we have only a few short years to "save the planet", or in the Millennium Bug panic (remember that?) of 1999. Democratic politics, especially at election times, feeds off a similar rhetoric of urgency, rival leaders promising salvation and warning of the doom that will ensue if the other side wins.

Something else that isn't confined to the Harold Campings of this world is his response to the failure of his prediction. Faced with an obvious mismatch between the theory to which he had publicly committed himself and the facts on the ground, Camping found it easier to cling to his theory – modifying it only slightly – rather than admit that he was wrong.

This sort of mental gymnastics is all too common. In all areas of life, people will often go to extraordinary lengths to maintain prior beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary.

To take a relatively uncontroversial example, it's now generally accepted that Dr Andrew Wakefield's linkage of the MMR vaccine to autism was wrong. Whatever merit his original study may have had (and it attracted criticism right from the start) later findings have largely discredited it. Yet this has not altered the views of many of Wakefield's supporters.

I don't want to single out Wakefield; it happens everywhere. Politicians stick to failed policies, academics cling to unsustainable hypotheses, business leaders throw good money after bad. It's the triumph of hope over experience.

Harold Camping may be a fringe figure whose version of Christianity is seriously warped, and good comedy material to boot. But in his overconfidence, his endless ability to clutch at straws rather than changing his mind, and his capacity for attracting followers happy to share his delusions, he is a more typical specimen of humanity than many people would like to admit.

Nelson Jones runs the Heresy Corner blog. He was shortlisted for the 2011 Orwell Prize for blogging.

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17 comments

Wed, 2011-05-25 20:55 — Woland (not verified)

nothing like cognitive dissonance...

Wed, 2011-05-25 20:59 — matthew fox (not verified)

It tells us God is a lousy timekeeper.

Tue, 2011-12-13 08:44 — ChurchillDexter

The idea of a 'rapture' is recent, American and also heterodox, since it rests on some very dubious exegesis, mainly resting on the text about the two working in the field - one taken and the other left. A text out of context is a pretext - in this case, for a wacky eschatology that is de rigeur in various American denominations - particularly those with a 'dispensationalist' view. http://www.bathroomremodelingtips.net/

Thu, 2011-05-26 08:56 — NucMed

"matthew fox
25 May 2011 at 19:59
It tells us God is a lousy timekeeper."

Or uses a different calendar ....

Thu, 2011-05-26 09:55 — Acamar (not verified)

Some people confuse their own mortality with the end of the world, projecting their inevitable death into a cosmic drama.

Thu, 2011-06-02 04:50 — DayONices (not verified)

Silliness exists. Perhaps if we allowed false prophets to be stoned after they had falsely prophesied, we would have fewer wackos leading other folks down the rabbit hole.

Oh wait…this is America! LOL we have the constitutional right to be wackos when we want to, and to follow whatever fanatic we care to. Maybe I should sew up some Rapture robes and place them on EBay. I could fund the kids college.

Thu, 2011-05-26 12:40 — Mulligrubs (not verified)

Personally I can only think that there must be a never-ending supply of gullible folk who are only too willing to believe these false prophets (who must be -likewise - in never-ending supply - 'never ending' - geddit?) - regarding the much heralded 'End Of the World.'
It would be a breach of human doolarly rights to stifle these cranks by law but perhaps it would be realistic to make it an offence to declare that the end of the world is imminent, without adequate insurance cover for all the disappointed dupes that sell up everything and head for the hills in pre-rapture blindness - or faith - or desperation. After all it's a believer's confidence that is being betrayed and suckers do deserve an even break - despite US folk wisdom proclaiming the contrary.

N.b. Under my compulsory E.O.T.W fully comprehensive insurance scheme - failure of prediction cannot be wriggled out of as ' Non-act of God'.

Fri, 2011-06-03 16:37 — Makarios Eshoo (not verified)

Found this article while doing some research, thought I'd drop a line.

It's quite amusing how Mr. Nelson Jones uses nonfactual assertions to push his personal beliefs in place of the truth.

First point I'd like to comment on is when he stated:

"If the Bible is both true and complete, it follows that it ought to be possible to decode it and so work out when the End will come. Books such as Revelation are full of symbols and numbers that invite just such decoding. And if you already believe the world is going to come to an end, it's obviously tempting to figure out the date."

The Bible is true and complete, but it does not follow some method to have itself decoded and thus postulate when the end is coming. The Bible makes that very clear in numerous ares such as; Acts 1:7, Matthew 24:36, and Mark 13:36.

Second Point:

"What makes a physical Second Coming different – psychologically – from a purely spiritual afterlife is not that it will happen on earth but that it will happen soon. Hence the urgency. It's natural to view the present moment as uniquely important, as the culmination of history or a moment of supreme peril, largely because we happen to be living through it."

This paragraph really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The rapture is a different event from the second coming of Jesus Christ, but it is intertwined. The Bible teaches that the rapture will occur before tribulations, removing the body of Christ (true believers) from the earth momentarily while the earth goes through events unprecedented in human history. After a period of seven years our Lord Jesus, will return to earth in His second coming and will rule as King of Kings and Lord of Lords. Psychology is not he deciding factor between the rapture and the second coming of Jesus.

Third Point:

"So Camping fits into a recognizable religious mold, albeit not an orthodox one. We shouldn't be too surprised. Date-setting emerges naturally from three widespread themes in fundamentalist Christianity: the "young earth" view, which sees history as short and dominated by an interventionist God; belief that the Bible contains an answer to every question; and attraction to the dramatic Apocalypse narratives of Revelation and the Book of Daniel. Together they give a sense of living inside an unfinished story whose end has already been written."

It is truly sad that Mr. Jones links Harold Camping to "fundamentalist Christians". Your not reading your Bible Mr. Jones, are you? Harold Camping is not a Christian. Just like members of the Watch Tower Society, Mormons, Catholics, and the list can go on and on...It's not because I say so, it's because these religious cults haven deviated from the Word (the Bible), added to the Word, and have just entirely thrown it out. How can you be called a Christian if you do not believe in the Bible? Or you only believe in the parts you chose to? A fundamentalist Christian is a true Christian, one who asserts the Bible's authority, and the truths found only in scripture. What a would we world we live in now that takes a true Christian and calls him a radical...

Last Point:

“People will often go to extraordinary lengths to maintain prior beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary.”

Mr. Jones I can admire this quote from your article. It speaks of many a great multitude of people who choose to deny truth and choose to live their lives blind to it. Their is one religion which has gained notable popularity as of late and has even integrated in certain number of religions. The one I'm speaking of is called the religion of Evolution. One of its most popular prophets is Charles Darwin, and the name of their god is "time". In place of authority and order is chance and probability.

Wed, 2011-05-25 17:45 — Arturo Bandini (not verified)

It's called cognitive dissonance,is it not?

Wed, 2011-05-25 17:50 — Theresa (not verified)

actually... Harold Camping can not be blamed for all this... because 5/21/2011 @ 6:PM is actually Biblical... as the day of completion... perhaps God was a no-show.

Wed, 2011-05-25 18:07 — Caedmon's Cat (not verified)

Mr Camping's attempt to pin down a date and time to the Last Day is - as your article states - nothing new. However, it's not orthodox Christianity in the least, since in Matthew's Gospel (24:13) Christ tells His disciples that they do not know the date or time. The idea of a 'rapture' is recent, American and also heterodox, since it rests on some very dubious exegesis, mainly resting on the text about the two working in the field - one taken and the other left. A text out of context is a pretext - in this case, for a wacky eschatology that is de rigeur in various American denominations - particularly those with a 'dispensationalist' view. If people like Camping heeded the lessons of church history, they might learn something..

Wed, 2011-05-25 19:30 — Barny

@ Arturo - "It's called cognitive dissonance,is it not?'

I think not. Cognitive dissonance is something else where one changes one's beliefs and attitudes to fit facts rather than this example where there is no retraction of the 'facts' (Armageddon), rather an amendment, however ludicrous, about how we get there.

A bit of fun here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9KlMWzKj4s

Wed, 2011-05-25 19:42 — DannyHaszard

If at First You Don't Succeed, Spin It Off
Harold Camping sounds like he plagiarized Jehovah's Witnesses
Jehovah Witnesses are a spin-off of the second Adventist which all came from the Millerite movement

**Feed your faith and starve your doubts.**
What keeps doomsday cults going after repeated prophetic failures?
Jehovahs Witnesses are still expecting the end because their rational mind no longer works it has become irrational because the desire for a new world is so potent it overwrites everything else”~ Greendawn
Cognitive dissonance:In brief, the theory of cognitive dissonance holds that contradicting cognitions serve as a driving force that compels the mind to acquire or invent new thoughts or beliefs, or to modify existing beliefs, so as to minimize the amount of dissonance (conflict) between cognitions.

Watchtower doctrinal structure has had many flip-flops and back ups.
If the leaders owned up to their errors instead of white washing they would have more respect.They set bogus dates over and over...
The Watchtower JW has made apocalyptic proclamations profitable.
The end of the world is coming someday..... but it wont be the Watchtower society Jehovahs Witnesses fulfillment.

Actual news releases on Armageddon 1975 prediction
http://www.dannyhaszard.com/1975.htm

Wed, 2011-05-25 20:15 — Dave C (not verified)

The Millennium Bug was real. (Early computer systems stored years in YY form to save space. The year 2000 would have been stored as 00, making calculations in existing code incorrect.)

That the Millennium Bug didn't manifest itself greatly was because programmers spent thousands of man-hours amending the code in their systems.