The next financial crisis
We’ll crash again unless global leaders answer some fundamental economic questions.
By Anthony Painter Published 17 May 2011 15:36
Political leaders across the world seem already to be treating the global financial crisis as a one-off event. We were unlucky. Yes, we may have been driving at 100mph through a densely populated neighbourhood. There was an accident, but we'll keep hold of the wheel next time and improve the brakes. How quickly we forget.
It's a long road from the multilateral resolve of the 2009 G20 Summit in London to today's paranoia, small-mindedness and cowardice in the face of domestic politics. European finance ministers meet today with seismic activity along the eurozone fault lines starting to spike, while the IMF faces an uncertain immediate future at just the wrong time.
Domestically, the likes of David Miles and Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England warn us about future uncertainty, with financial crises more a matter of when than if. The Independent Commission on Banking knows how exposed we are as an economy. And yet, the commission recommends fairly small-scale action – bank shares climbed in the aftermath of its report being published. The reprt was more frightened of the City of London's competitiveness than any potential damage to the remainder of the economy.
In the UK context, the coalition has succeeded in selling its particular outlook on the economy as a consensual position. It is anything but. Its immediate policy – austerity despite financial stasis – is profoundly disputed in the economic academy and by the specialist commentariat. Moreover, the government has done little to drive towards a better global financial institutional structure.
Tasty story
Where the last government was ahead of this debate, the coalition prefers to hide behind a consumable story about debt. Meanwhile, it is failing to address the fundamental challenges of restoring strong growth and creating the right rules of the game.
We have an economic and financial system that is inherently uncertain and crisis-prone. We remain in the midst of a crisis that has gone from sub-prime mortgages to global financial crisis, to global recession, to sovereign debt crisis, and could yet become an even more ferocious debt and financial crisis. Greece, Ireland, Portugal and perhaps Spain are trapped, insolvent and capable only of a fiscal masochism that ultimately makes the problem worse as national income suffers as a result. And the whole time, the system remains fundamentally unchanged.
Two basic questions emerge that few of our leaders dare ask with the public in earshot. First, do we accept globalisation or not? Second, if we accept it, how do we ensure that it creates jobs and shared wealth instead of destroying them?
The answer to the first question is not obvious. We do have a choice. Globalisation is not a force of nature. There is a perfectly legitimate argument in favour of trying to play globalisation by your own rules. This has limits even for the world's two largest economies, China and the United States. In fact, in both economic and financial terms they are highly mutually dependent.
Unless legislators are willing to give preference to independence over economic prosperity the question then becomes: how do we do globalisation and make it consistent with democratic legitimacy and national welfare? What the ongoing global financial crisis shows is that we haven't got it right at all.
In a stark warning in this week's Newsweek, Gordon Brown argues that we have not properly addressed the cracks and friction in the global economy. Globalisation offers new markets as well as new competition. Play it right and we all prosper. Get it wrong and the global financial crisis of 2008 threatens to be the first of many.
Calamity lane
What is clear is that the world is crying out for leadership. The alternative is what we have now: mutual suspicion, fear, unenlightened national interest, race-to-the-bottom competition and uncertainty. We can neither afford this reckless evasion of the real challenges posed by globalisation nor pretend that there is a cosy retreat. Both nationalism and inaction pose serious threats to jobs, growth, climate change, social justice and global poverty reduction.
Once, in the historically recent past, leaders chose to create the institutional architecture of shared prosperity in response to the Great Depression and the economic devastation of the Second World War. These institutions were both domestic and international, and based around financial regulation and multilateral support for economic change combined with an opening of trade and exchange. What this meant is that societies could embed the global economy in domestic social institutions. It empowered democratic nations without precipitating economic calamity.
Whether the eurozone pops or not, strong leadership and institutional creativity are now needed once more. In this regard, leadership at the global level – including in the IMF, within the major economic blocs and domestically – is the most vital just as it suddenly seems so lacking. Or we could just repair the car that has just crashed, pretend we simply got unlucky, and go for a joy ride again. Somehow, that doesn't seem to be very sensible. Nonetheless, it is exactly what we seem to be doing.
Anthony Painter is a political writer, critic and researcher. Follow him on Twitter at @anthonypainter.
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32 comments
Mrs Nobody---have you any idea how the world grain markets work in Chicago? In reality as a speculator, slightly above half will lose. There is no certainty about grain prices except in the long run, mostly caused by extra demand, or too many people!
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in the years leading up to the crisis, there was numerous warnings on the levels of debt building up in the economy. the problem was that booming finance and property sectors were bringing in alot of tax revenue and no one wanted to spoil the party.
gordon devised the golden-rules but didn't stick to them - if we had - we would have put some of that tax revenue aside and balanced the economy over the economic cycle - instead many believed the gordon's garbage that he solved boom and bust - incidently it was only cheap chinese imports that kept inflation low during that period - with china a new superpower commodity prices are rising (as they get richer).
the only thing great gordon did was make the bank of england independent but the he had to bail out his scottish banks and provided knighthoods to the likes of fred the shred (for the wonders he did for the scottish economy).
his solutions (near zero rates, even more debt and printing money) will definetly ensure the next crisis is worse (we haven't had a serious house price crash yet) - those solutions won't be available when the next crisis arrives.
this article does make a great point though about globalisation the main one is that the west needs to consume less and invest more (through savings) and the east needs to spend more and save less.
If no globalization, what's the alternative? Massive protectionism? How will that help?
What's necessary to make globalization work? Transparency and enforcing regulations. However, the banks and other rich and powerful people want none of that. Also, Cameron and others are afriad to stand up to them and actually do their jobs.
David Vinter writes, 'Mrs Nobody---have you any idea how the world grain markets work in Chicago?'
This is how the markets work Mr Vinter: “This is mostly a speculative thing,” said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Price Futures Group Inc. in Chicago. “I don’t think this has much to do with fundamentals, except the fundamental of panic.”
Presumably you see nothing strange about our lives being in the hands of people who are paid to 'panic'.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/grain-prices-plunge-as-north-af...
EDDY S The trouble was that all financial institutions were showing 'debts owing' as part of their capital, and then lending it out all over again!
Our economy has been based on growth and it has to stop. We have finite resources, the planet is only so large. If we consume more and more every year one day, with people standing shoulder to shoulder across the entire globe, we will burn the last drop of oil, eat the last plant, and wonder to ourselves "what happened?" 0% growth is not enough, at this point we need a reduction in EVERYTHING. Fewer people, lower energy use, EVERYTHING. What happens when a disease tears through our food production mono culture destroying our ability to feed ourselves. The recession is nothing. What happens when we run out for good? The end will not be gradual, it will be sudden. Most people will be surprised by it. Your gold hoarding, Magpul training videos, assault rifles, Toyota prius, heirloom tomatoes, all will not help you. Your only real salvation is that the earth can handle our population long enough that it is your children who are around when the end happens.
There is always a place for someone crying 'Woe and destruction' and sure a lot of it is eventually true. The earth will come to an end! Meanwhile we should all live within our means.
Seriously governments only know how to run an economy crying for More Groth! It must end by definition. Meanwhile getting a handle on world overpopulation would be a fine start!
@ Rebecca, a rude & unhelpful post about Mr Vintner in my opinion, after being bonmbarded for over a decade by all forms of media regarding global warmimg, environmental problems etc, whats wrong with a debate on population?
I suppose Sir David Attenborough who sponsors populationmatters is a Nazi too..
I fear Gordon Brown is so tribally political that he would use the IMF headship role to play politics with the world economy, particulalry if he can score points of his own country's government. We need a credible, seasoned expert, not a historian of economics.
'Population' is directly related to how prosperous the family is. Poorer commnities tended to have more children because of higher infant mortality rates, the more chance of some of their infants surviving into adulthood. Increase the survival rates, then the fewer children these families will have. Ini the West the average has fallen from 2.4 children to abourt 1.8. Thats not the case in the developing world.
It requires a huge amount of capital investment to raise and educate a child, which tends to mean that educated families have fewer children, and children later in life, these days.
So you can reduce population by improving the lives and conditions of the less fortunate poor and vulnerable families. And that means the whole community/country investing in the health,welfare and education of their children, not only at home but abroad. It is in the interests of the West to increase the living standards of the developing world as well as its own country.
Brown is right: globalisation should not be seeen as a threat but an opportunity to enrich the lives of all. And, we are lacking leadership to think through how we grow together after the economic abyss that we fell into. Its not enough to paper over the cracks. It requires a whole new co-operative strategy.
I believe globalisation is exaggerated, we have always been in competition with the rest of the world.
It's used as an excuse to drive down wages and conditions and to force through the interests of the financial and banking class at the expense of the rest of us.
How many jobs have really been lost to globalisation, not many is the answer.
Its yet another Neo-liberal banking con trick.
Debt should only be entered into to support/build infrastructure, that way we get value and the politicians cannot buy votes.
Seriously governments only know how to run an economy crying for More Groth! It must end by definition. Meanwhile getting a handle on world overpopulation would be a fine star
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The truth is David that in the years leading to the crash, it was not overspending governments that crashed the system, but overspending companies and individuals.
Banks were allowed to lend extravagantly in an era of deregulation thanks to the Groupthink of neocons and neolibs, which said "governments should not regulate as the market is all-knowing". And so the debts were passed on to the financial markets through securitisation and collateralised bonds until the music stopped, and everyine stopped buying. Crash!!!!!!!
It is a spectacular turn of events that so many are denying and others forgetting this. We took decades to forget about the disaster of neoliberalism post-1929, a matter of a couple of years to forget the causes of 2007-8.
elrob, the truth is that, during boom the governments need to continue following austerity measures and not fall for "end of boom & bust" assumption. What do you mean Banks 'were allowed to'? I think that speaks volumes about how you view the world...typical oh I want to control everything. But Can you? Soviets tried, what happened?
I guess the refusal of the left to learn anything from Soviets collapse and a stupid arrogance has meant we have converted private debt into Public debt. By the same all knowing leftists.
They just do not learn. And that is the main problem with world economy.
@Pierre
....Debt should only be entered into to support/build infrastructure, that way we get value and the politicians cannot buy votes....
That is single entry book keeping. In double entry book keeping the capital that you build must payback value. Otherwise it will rot.
Erob, let us get more down to basics, a farmer can choose to spend
£20000 on either a car or a tractor.If he borrows the cash, the difference is one will earn money, the other will just keep costing. I'm sure the farmer has little interest in what the bank does with his debt. From his point of view, as long as he keeps up payments he is fine!
Swatandra, funny in my case my wife and I decided how many children we could raise , feed and educate properly, and used contraceptives to acheive our results. The world population is growing at over one and a half million every week, food prices are rising. In Europe in the middle ages, families did not raise children as 'spares',they did it because family planning was unavailable. Often a hard cold winter would limit the numbers!
@elrob
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Nice try but wrong.
Its all theory and all crappy. The idea that we should, including the government save for the rainy day is matter of conservative principle tested over centuries.
Modern organisations do not last even 100 years using all the economic theories of the world. Business families in India have lasted over 2000 years even during Mughal and British rules. Proof that all this theory business is nonsensical.
It is one of the reasons why Managers in Large private Banks are so very similar to government and they blow up. But they know their is a bottom less pit of tax payers money which keeps on saving them.
Eg. Soviet Union, North Korea and East Germany is End of argument really on the other hand.
US and Europe debt crisis are due to over spending and printing of money. To solve the problem there are many ways such as
- Print more money to pay and force the creditors to accept the revised term through financial, politic and military power.
- Rob the fortune of the creditors by creating financial crisis in creditors’ countries through speculation in currencies, shares and commodities markets.
- Selling off properties and resources to pay creditors.
- Create job opportunities and make their citizens work harder to generate more products and services to pay.
Of course the first 2 methods are easier than the rest and implemented most of the time and will continue to be used in the future unless the creditors become stronger and smarter.
Food prices are rising because of food speculation. The crisis is in the world finance system that allows money to flood from one speculative bubble to the next. A very small number of people do very well out of this system whilst the majority suffer be it because of high housing costs or high food prices.
RK
ob, the truth is that, during boom the governments need to continue following austerity measures and not fall for "end of boom & bust" assumption. What do you mean Banks 'were allowed to'? I think that speaks volumes about how you view the world...typical oh I want to control everything. But Can you? Soviets tried, what happened?
----------------
Rk, what a ramble.
First: during boom the governments need to continue following austerity measures..
I'll be generous and assume you mean that governments should be cautious during booms so they have funds for the bust period.
Then yes. They should, and especially a govt of the Left. The Left has a history of understanding that markets boom and bust: Far Left Marx predicted it all, and explained minutely how it would happen thru competitive industries investing in advanced technology to produce better products for market share, rather than in more wealth- and profit-producing labour and so losing profits until crash! ...or more moderate LeftKeynes who explained that people are more emotional than rational, and over-extend themselves in boom times until financing is impossible and crash! that followed by emotional fear and lack of borrowing, investment or spending by the populace leading to an even greater slump than is necessary.
For a chancellor of the "left" to call end to boom and bust was frankly ignorant of the left. Brown became a neoliberal's wet dream, and the nightmare of the Left.
If you meant that austerity should be permanent, you're a fool.
and second: What do you mean Banks 'were allowed to'? I think that speaks volumes about how you view the world...Soviets blah blah
Yes, banks should not have been allowed to. They should have been regulated; constrained by the cold steel hand of government from disastrous short-term proft-taking at the expense of the people, and ultimately the whole economy.
President FDR in the 1930s passed a law to constrain banks, which was lifted in the 1990s. Not one bank went bust in over half a century under that regulation in the US.
After it was lifted, it took a decade for hundreds - yes hundreds - to go bust, including one of the world's biggest Lehmans (others would have gone and the world have suffered a far worse slump but for bailouts).
Of course, there is only two alternatives aren't there big man? Free marklet capitalism or Stalinist Sovietism.
Grow up you neoliberal child! Your childish group think that markets should be free from any interference because they see all has been proven spectacularly wrong with the world's deepest financial crisis since the First World War.
And you still believe?
You're pathetic.
The banks must be controlled, because unregulated markets are not free.
They imprison us into following the crowd into debt or being left behind: 1980s to 2008 to enormous private sector debt (British private sector debt equals 250% of GDP, public sector: 58%.)
thru
And I did not support the NewLab govt in office, nor voted them in 01 or 05.
Food prices are rising because of food speculation.
----
It's not just speculation. The world population is growing, and the East is getting richer and changing its diet.
As Chinese want more meat, more feed is required for cattle and pigs. More feed is required, then demand for soybeans, maize etc is going thru the roof.
'Save for a rainy day' - current Conservative policy appears to contradict this principle. We are currently experiencing a rainy day - cutting public spending will not solve the problem as OBR growth forecasts rely on private debt increasing. This is unsustainable and cannot lead to a rebalancing of the economy, which requires individuals to deleverage.
Governments should spend in a downturn when interest rates are low and when the paradox of thrift holds; especially as credit spreads are still historically high, which combined with a lack of domestic demand is holding private sector investment in capital and labour. However, governments must save in an upturn. The last government made a mistake by overspending amidst a boom in tax revenues; but two wrongs do not make a right.
Countercyclical not procyclical.
Addressing the main point of the article: sensible financial sector regulation is needed not unfettered capitalism; moral hazard is a major problem.
REPAY
17 May 2011 at 15:52
I fear Gordon Brown is so tribally political that he would use the IMF headship role to play politics with the world economy, particulalry if he can score points of his own country's government. We need a credible, seasoned expert, not a historian of economics__________________
Well that's nonsense for a start because he has ruled himself out of the running. yet again I feel that Cameron has helped crash the UK economy, just as he did when he was in opposition with his constant nonsense rhetoric. Brown would have been what the world needed at the IMF, but hey-ho whatever, it is only our livelihoods let's all keep stupidly blaming one man for the world's financial ills.
it is NOT Gordon Brown that is behaving tribally it is DAVID CAMERON, the blithering incompetent fool.
When we do get a new leader at the IMF and the UK economy is single out for short sighted political opportunistic short termism then I think Cameron and the dolt chancellor Osborne will only wish that they recommended Gordon Brown.
In my view any uncertainty at the margins is probably best understood in the common sense, by the common sense and for the commons sense. Thus said; making the most of expansionary austerity in the short term means we have to put up with testing times in order to get ahead of the curve, later on ie in the long term.
Personally, I like to think this means that at best we can reclaim the so-called margins for the common good, including all that discretion we would normally put to good use at the margins when necessary and appropriate to avoid any frustrations and to keep things buzzing along nicely.
However, in my view the most important question of today is about the so-called extra mile, notably mentioned by the head of Tata. Just thinking about this question, and where it's coming from seems to me a very good way to look at the questions about globalisation generally and how it is supposed to expand all our freedoms as citizens without fear or favour, in the end;
Now I know the term extra mile can be found in the Bible and most people look into it and accept the Biblical story about going the extra mile at face value. But on this occasion I prefer to refer to the bit of the same book where Jesus asks the question as to which son is most obedient, in the parable about the two sons Matt 21:28-32 . I have always found this parable hard to understand because the end is so surprising - but in the context of margins/discretion/ globalisation/ going the extra mile - I reckon it may turn out to be a profoundly useful way to help deal better with all kinds of clumsy and awkward situations.
"it is failing to address the fundamental challenges of restoring strong growth and creating the right rules of the game"
The reason for this is quite simple...its that their own personal safety and future is first and foremost,they would get over it in an instant if half the population were to perish and anyway that would reduce the strain on world resources.
Judging by the poor state of finances in many countries world wide, plus the ever-growing numbers of individuals / families experiencing financial problems, perhaps the real problem is that although humans have the capacity to plan ahead for the future, they tend to be notoriously poor at doing so. Hence people tend to overspend when times are good, not realising that at some point in future their income may drop. It's happened to individuals, families, businesses and governments.
But it can also be said it's not a new concept - one of the earliest written Judeo-Christian texts contains an example of an Egyptian minister who ordered the construction of barns so excess grain harvested during years with decent weather could be used to feed the population during years with terrible weather.
Never mind the backstory about dream interpretation - I wonder to what extent that tale has been used as a parable of wise resource allocation and planning for the future...
We do need much more reform than we are getting. I read a good blog post earlier today which described the reform that banking systems need and pointed out that so far measures in the Euro zone has moved us further away rather than nearer to a solution.
"Because it is a fantasy which market professionals will see through immediately the banks concerned will be treated as if they have made losses. Europe will have created its own equivalent of Japan’s zombie banks and the problem with that is that they helped lead her into the twenty year debacle that is called “the lost decade”.
In an answer to a comment on this blog yesterday I offered my opinion that the UK banking sector has had no real reform over the period of the crdit crunch and that for genuine economic improvement we will need to reform it. The same is true of Europe except that their moves so far rather than maintaining a status quo have actually made things worse. They now have a weaker banking sector than the one they started with whilst many individuals in it get wealthier."
http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/author/shaun-richards/
If he is right and so far he has been very accurate on our economies we have a long road ahead to recovery...
We have this philoshpy that money generated from growth will trickle downwards to benefit all in society ? hmmm well i`m thinking the only thing that trickles downhill in this world is poverty .. human`s by nature have become greedy, greed is good it would seem .. the whole system needs turning upside down for a while ... life has become a lottery, i`m lucky , i was born in northern England so i can comment here but still realise i have no answers just comments .. paygap
David Vintner: maybe you should find some friends, go to a villa next a lake near Berlin and hatch your plans on how you will limit human population. I have an idea for the title for your plan: "The Final Solution".
Gordon Brown argues that we have not properly addressed the cracks and friction in the global economy. I don't think Gordon's the man to be asking? Britain failed, because of our over reliance on the financial service industries, combined with our acceptance of de-industrialisation. We should of being enjoying the best of both worlds, but because of our appalling lack of quality management and politicians, we aren't, and in all honesty, i can't see things improving with this bunch. We need our politicians to stop thinking globally and start thinking nationally, after all we can't solve the problems of the world by ignoring our own.