The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Huhne: Cameron’s No will prove a pyrrhic victory

Energy Secretary warns PM that the genie of electoral reform won’t go back in the bottle.

By Jonathan Derbyshire Published 08 May 2011 14:16

Chris Huhne has an interesting op-ed in the Independent on Sunday today. The conventional wisdom has it that the result of Thursday's referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV) has extinguished the hopes of electoral reformers for a generation.

Huhne certainly thinks AV is "dead and buried", but he refuses to accept that the cause of reform was snuffed out last week. On the contrary: "When change comes, as it will, it is likely to be more radical."

He rightly points out that the deep structural defects in the British electoral system, to which AV would have been only a partial remedy, remain and will continue to sap political legitimacy in this country.

The problems to which electoral reformers are responding have not gone away and will continue to demand an answer. British society is increasingly pluralist, and the trend to diversity is accelerating. In the Fifties, only 4 per cent of voters rejected Labour and the Tories. Now the figure is a third. Once Labour and the Conservatives dominated our politics. Now Liberal Democrats, Greens, Nationalists and others demand a voice.

The attempt to squeeze diversity into the fraying corset of two-party politics is likely to lead to more and more unfair results. Already, the regional representation of the parties is distorted, with the Tories under-represented in the north and Scotland despite substantial votes, and Labour similarly anorexic in the south. Both parties speak first to their regional bases, respectively ignoring urban deprivation and aspirational affluence.

And the success of the SNP in Scotland makes things even more volatile. Huhne describes Alex Salmond's victory in the Scottish elections as a further "lurch towards diversity" that the success of the No campaign in the referendum on AV will do nothing to halt, let alone reverse. And were Salmond somehow to win a referendum on Scottish independence, Huhne goes on, electoral reform would be forced on England:

The Conservative Party is so strong in England that our-first-past-the-post system tends to give it English majorities even more often than British ones. Without Scotland, the Tories would have an overall majority now, plus another two since the war. Scottish independence would force electoral reform just to avoid incessant Tory governments in England.

For Kremlinologists, the most striking part of the article comes towards the end, when Huhne warns his cabinet colleague David Cameron to learn the lessons of history:

The Conservative Party only embraces constitutional change after it has happened, but it is very likely that [David Cameron's] very personal big No will prove a Pyrrhic victory. The lessons of Irish Home Rule are clear. By resisting even the smallest improvement in our constitutional arrangements, the Conservatives set Ireland on course to the 1916 Easter rising and independence. The rejection of the Alternative Vote, combined with the rise of the SNP, is going to put our political system under unprecedented strain. The failure to release pressure means that the tectonic plates will eventually move further and faster. History shows that the Whigs were right. The world must change if it is to stay the same.

There was also a shifting of "tectonic plates", to borrow Huhne's metaphor, around the cabinet table last week, of course. But he insists (as did Nick Clegg on The Andrew Marr Show this morning) that the unpleasantness of the AV campaign, which pittedcCabinet colleagues against each other, hasn't undermined the coalition: "You do not give up on a business contract just because you catch your partner indulging in sharp practice, but there will inevitably be more formality and an insistence on proper procedure."

Clegg was singing from the same hymn sheet. He told Marr: "There's a lot of heat in an election campaign but we move on. It's not a merger or a marriage between two political parties." We can expect to hear that line a lot in the next few weeks as the Lib Dem leadership tries to placate the party rank and file.

As for Huhne, it looks as if he is going nowhere – for the time being at least.

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Tags: Chris Huhne Coalition

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22 comments

Mon, 2011-05-09 12:15 — Stroller (not verified)

Electoral Reform sits somewhere below Foxhunting on the electorate's priorities. Mind you, rather than whinging about the No Campaign, reformers should be considering the pathetic centre-left luvvie-led Yes Campaign which probably turned off as many waverers as it inspired the already committed Guardian readers.

Mon, 2011-05-09 12:48 — Ollie_paulkossoff (not verified)

Huhne is on the right lines about PR being a system on the right side of history. It will happen but it may not be a soon as many would have liked. FPTP can cause the problems of coalitions so the argument for its need is intellectually defunct.

The problem with Huhne's remarks, and the Yes campaigns literature in the referendum, is that he sees it as a party based problem. Certain parties need to be represented as the two-party dominance is waning.

The issue though is bigger than that. It is more to do with voter’s rights. Even if, and when, two parties dominant the system PR is still essential, for it gives power to the people in a democratic system that currently allows for very little power to stream downwards. It's a cliché but without that power the problem of a lack of change, voter apathy and political distrust will never be overcome.

Many voters don't see PR as a big issue. That is a fact. The question is why when it so clearly effects them and the system of governance they live in?

Education. Without knowledge of the subject the issue becomes blurred. Those with insights into political systems are all almost to a man in favour of PR. What is needed is politics as a mandatory subject is schools. Then see the change…………..

Mon, 2011-05-09 13:20 — Marcus (not verified)

I agree with him regarding voters disillusionment with the two leading political parties.

The problem with the British political system is that it fosters career politicians who hide within the confounds of political parties.

These political parties do not accurately reflect the thoughts and opinions of the UK population, who are by and large centre-right, with a libertarian outlook.

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Mon, 2011-05-09 16:27 — Rick (not verified)

The people may not have said yes to AV but they also didn't say yes to a perpetual Tory government which is what we seem to be in for.

I hope the right wing trolls enjoy it whilst it lasts because it's not going to. The best thing about right wing ideology is that it's self limited by its own greed. Your mates in the city will ruin the economy once again and you won't have the left and the liberals to hide behind this time.

Sun, 2011-05-08 15:45 — swatantra nandanwar

Huhne is absolutely right about the genie of electoral reform. But he underestimates the Conservatives. History shows that the Conservatives will seieze any opportunity to further their own interests and preserve their Party, regardless of the country. It happened with Peel and the Corn Laws; it happened with Disraeli and wider enfranchisement, when Disraeli outmanouervred the Gladstone Liberals by extending the enfranchisement more than the Liberals, and went on to win the GE.
The Conservatives will be won round eventually when they see that the very survival of their Party depends on it.
They will see that PR in Scotland helped keep their tory base instead of being completely wiped out. And they will see that the SNP won a clear majority, despite PR, so the old lie that PR leads to coalitions is a nonsense and finally nailed.

Sun, 2011-05-08 17:02 — Barny

I only hope this is correct and we can get PR asap...

Sun, 2011-05-08 17:11 — Clive Wolfe (not verified)

Huhne is an idiot... get it through your thick heads...

The British public do not want electorial reform, there is no fabled progressive majority

Sun, 2011-05-08 18:07 — Hugh (not verified)

You might not Clive, but I presume you're a reactionary.

Sun, 2011-05-08 18:25 — Clive Wolfe (not verified)

Yes, you probably would think that I am, but like 16m other people I voted No to AV...

So once again;
"The British public do not want electorial reform, there is no fabled progressive majority"

Sun, 2011-05-08 19:22 — Mr Blue Sky (not verified)

Britain would have voted for PR. AV was a "grubby little compromise". Most people agreed with Nick!

Sun, 2011-05-08 19:54 — mary8

Both Huhne and Clegg seem to be singing the "A week's a long time in politics" mantra by try to gloss over the outrageous NotoAv campaign. To dismiss it as sharp practice sounds weak and pathetic, when there is evidence of blatant lies and a calculated attempt to deceive the electorate (Samira Shackle-05 May). If the referendum were covered by the same rules as elections, then there could well be grounds for legal action over the campaign literature of the No's. Yet again, the financial might of the Tory funded campaign has shown just how dirty it likes to play. Perhaps the law on campaign literature needs to be extended to cover referendum literature, then we might see the same punishment meted out as that given to Labour in Oldham.

Sun, 2011-05-08 20:11 — hugh markey (not verified)

AV was a great rabble-rouser, as far at the Conservatives are concerned. It got out the dormant Tory voter! Of course the pairing of a general election with a local election has motivated voters of all persuasions to turn out.
Next step for the Tories - redrawing the electoral map. The Isle of Wight will certainly need a magician's touch.

Core Voters

Sun, 2011-05-08 22:12 — Clive Wolfe (not verified)

Mr Blue Sky: "Britain would have voted for PR. AV was a "grubby little compromise". Most people agreed with Nick!"

No they wouldn't, there is no silent progressive majority... nobody wants PR with colalition governemtns and shady back room deals as the norm.

The British people do not agree with you, please come to terms with this.

Sun, 2011-05-08 22:40 — Luddite (not verified)

The British people said NO!! the political-left needs to start fucking listening.

Sun, 2011-05-08 23:32 — mcquade

Slight flaw with Huhne's argument: with Lib Dem wipeout, we're as good as back to a two party. They will of course recover, but for a very long time.

Sun, 2011-05-08 23:34 — mcquade (not verified)

Luddite, the British people said no to AV. You need to start reading what's written on ballot papers.

Mon, 2011-05-09 01:00 — Greg3

mcquade "Luddite, the British people said no to AV. You need to start reading what's written on ballot papers."

and electoral reform is so high on the list of priorities for the average person.

Most people didn't give a shite, this was a soft-left, guardian run campaign and that's why it lost

Mon, 2011-05-09 10:04 — petes (not verified)

Clegg blew this chance in a generation by accepting a referendum on AV instead of PR. We're stuck now with PFTP for decades more. Lib Dems and others should accept the logic of the system in which they operate and join one of the two main parties.