Osborne’s Britain lags behind France and Germany

The UK economy continues to struggle but its competitors are racing ahead.

France and Germany have just released their growth figures for the first quarter of 2011 and they show that Britain continues to lag behind its main competitors. The French economy grew by 1 per cent, its fastest rate of expansion for five years, and the German economy grew by 1.5 per cent, its highest level of growth since the financial crisis.

But while France and Germany outperformed expectations, the UK grew by just 0.5 per cent in Q1 (below the OBR forecast of 0.8 per cent), failing even to recover the lost output from the previous quarter. As Sunder Katwala pointed out, "a 0.5 per cent increase on the reduced figure doesn't make up for the 0.5 per cent fall from a higher base".

When the coalition entered office the economy was growing at an annual rate of more than 4 per cent (growth in the second quarter, thanks in part to Labour's fiscal stimulus, was 1.1 per cent), but for the past six months it has flatlined. And that's before the bulk of the spending cuts has been implemented.

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Earlier this month, Osborne's team made a risible attempt to claim that the UK economy had outperformed that of the US, which grew by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter. But as I explained at the time, this is an entirely bogus comparison. As the graph shows, while the British economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter, the US economy grew by 0.8 per cent. Thus, the US experienced real growth in Q1, while the UK didn't even recover the output that it lost in Q4.

The reality is that the British economy, which was at the top of the EU growth table in the first half of 2010, is now near the bottom. It isn't just the likes of the US, France and Germany that have raced ahead of the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium have overtaken us as well. Only Portugal and Greece have performed worse over the past six months.

A recovery that was already set to be weaker than those of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s is now likely to be weaker still. There is every possibility that the Office for Budget Responsibility will be forced to downgrade its growth forecasts for the fourth time and that the coalition will miss its deficit targets. Osborne's plan isn't working.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The Women's March against Trump matters – but only if we keep fighting

We won’t win the battle for progressive ideas if we don’t battle in the first place.

Arron Banks, UKIP-funder, Brexit cheerleader and Gibraltar-based insurance salesman, took time out from Trump's inauguration to tweet me about my role in tomorrow's Women’s March Conservative values are in the ascendancy worldwide. Thankfully your values are finished. . . good”.

Just what about the idea of women and men marching for human rights causes such ill will? The sense it is somehow cheeky to say we will champion equality whoever is in office in America or around the world. After all, if progressives like me have lost the battle of ideas, what difference does it make whether we are marching, holding meetings or just moaning on the internet?

The only anti-democratic perspective is to argue that when someone has lost the argument they have to stop making one. When political parties lose elections they reflect, they listen, they learn but if they stand for something, they don’t disband. The same is true, now, for the broader context. We should not dismiss the necessity to learn, to listen, to reflect on the rise of Trump – or indeed reflect on the rise of the right in the UK  but reject the idea that we have to take a vow of silence if we want to win power again.

To march is not to ignore the challenges progressives face. It is to start to ask what are we prepared to do about it.

Historically, conservatives have had no such qualms about regrouping and remaining steadfast in the confidence they have something worth saying. In contrast, the left has always been good at absolving itself of the need to renew.

We spend our time seeking the perfect candidates, the perfect policy, the perfect campaign, as a precondition for action. It justifies doing nothing except sitting on the sidelines bemoaning the state of society.

We also seem to think that changing the world should be easier than reality suggests. The backlash we are now seeing against progressive policies was inevitable once we appeared to take these gains for granted and became arrogant and exclusive about the inevitability of our worldview. Our values demand the rebalancing of power, whether economic, social or cultural, and that means challenging those who currently have it. We may believe that a more equal world is one in which more will thrive, but that doesn’t mean those with entrenched privilege will give up their favoured status without a fight or that the public should express perpetual gratitude for our efforts via the ballot box either.  

Amongst the conferences, tweets and general rumblings there seem three schools of thought about what to do next. The first is Marxist  as in Groucho revisionism: to rise again we must water down our principles to accommodate where we believe the centre ground of politics to now be. Tone down our ideals in the hope that by such acquiescence we can eventually win back public support for our brand – if not our purpose. The very essence of a hollow victory.

The second is to stick to our guns and stick our heads in the sand, believing that eventually, when World War Three breaks out, the public will come grovelling back to us. To luxuriate in an unwillingness to see we are losing not just elected offices but the fight for our shared future.

But what if there really was a third way? It's not going to be easy, and it requires more than a hashtag or funny t-shirt. It’s about picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves down and starting to renew our call to arms in a way that makes sense for the modern world.

For the avoidance of doubt, if we march tomorrow and then go home satisfied we have made our point then we may as well not have marched at all. But if we march and continue to organise out of the networks we make, well, then that’s worth a Saturday in the cold. After all, we won’t win the battle of ideas, if we don’t battle.

We do have to change the way we work. We do have to have the courage not to live in our echo chambers alone. To go with respect and humility to debate and discuss the future of our communities and of our country.

And we have to come together to show there is a willingness not to ask a few brave souls to do that on their own. Not just at election times, but every day and in every corner of Britain, no matter how difficult it may feel.

Saturday is one part of that process of finding others willing not just to walk a mile with a placard, but to put in the hard yards to win the argument again for progressive values and vision. Maybe no one will show up. Maybe not many will keep going. But whilst there are folk with faith in each other, and in that alternative future, they’ll find a friend in me ready to work with them and will them on  and then Mr Banks really should be worried.