The coalition’s NHS headache gets bigger

Waiting times reach a three-year high following the decision to relax targets.

Iain Duncan Smith recently caused the government much embarrassment when he admitted that waiting times at his local hospital had increased since last year. Now, a new report by the King's Fund shows that the picture isn't much better elsewhere.

Hospital waiting times are now at their highest since April 2008, with 15 per cent of patients waiting over 18 weeks for treatment. Given the financial pressures on the National Health Service, these figures are hardly disastrous. But the numbers are moving in the wrong direction and cannot be simply explained by seasonal fluctuations.

The news will call into question Andrew Lansley's decision to relax Labour's waiting-time targets last June. As the King's Fund chief economist, Professor John Appleby, a co-author of the report, pointed out: "In the past the two things that kept waiting down were targets and extra money. Managers got sacked for not meeting targets. And of course in the future there won't be the same amount of extra money."

They may not have been fashionable, but Labour's much-derided targets and patient guarantees produced results. Lansley's decision to "relax" targets has had the reverse effect.

One of his first acts as Health Secretary was to pull back on the four-hour Accident and Emergency target, which has since been scrapped entirely. The result is that the number of patients waiting more than four hours has risen from 176,522 to 292,052, a 65 per cent increase and the highest level in five years.

At a time when the coalition is struggling to convince the public that the health service is "safe in its hands", a rise in waiting times is politically toxic. History teaches us that once governments lose trust on the NHS, they rarely win it back.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.