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Osborne’s plan isn’t working

Today’s GDP figure of 0.5 per cent means the economy hasn’t grown for six months.

George Osborne told the cabinet yesterday that the economy is "on the right track". But today's GDP figures suggest that he has no right to be so sanguine.

The preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics suggests that the economy grew by just 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, significantly lower than the forecast of 0.8 per cent from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

A stagnant economy

A

If you take into account that the economy shrank by 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2010, today's figures indicate that it hasn't grown for six months. A terrible performance, given that we experienced growth of 1.8 per cent over the previous six months. There is now a real possibility that the OBR will have to downgrade its 2011 growth forecasts for the fourth time.

Osborne may have avoided a double-dip recession (not much of an achievement), but the recovery remains stagnant. His economic strategy is to use loose monetary policy (interest rates and the exchange rate) to offset the effects of a tighter fiscal policy (spending cuts and tax rises).

But this approach works only if interest rates are high to begin with. For instance, following the savage cuts of the 1981 budget, Geoffrey Howe cut interest rates by 2 percentage points and the economy surged as a result. But when the coalition took office, interest rates were already at an emergency low of 0.5 per cent and have stayed there ever since.

There could be even worse to come. Today's figures cover the VAT rise, which came into effect in January, but not the spending cuts, which began in April. For now, there is little evidence that the coalition's austerity economics will deliver the robust growth that Britain so desperately needs.

50 comments

mike555's picture

@Matt

"Your an individual who failed to mention house prices dropped in 2008 and 2010, who cannot explain why CGT was merged in 2008. "

Pathetic cluthcing at straws again, we've covered that at length. Do you really want to go through all that again? I will if you want, though we've been there twice already.

"The line about booming house prices between 1979-1990 is extremely valid, it is a historical fact, according to you, a housing boom is " socially and economic divisive " not my words Bozo555, yours, please remember that. "

Yes, just like the 1997 - 2007 boom, though that boom hasn't yet unravelled, making it far more relevant. Shame you can't seem to acknowledge that. I acknowledge the housing boom from 1979 to 1990, I'm not a Tory so it's no problem.

"It seems you don't have a problem with a conservative housing boom, why is that Bozo555. "

Equally pathetic, see my previous comments.

"I am not surprised you have mentioned low incomes again, you have forgot that Mrs T double the number of low income households in her reign, while fuelling a housing boom."

Doesn't change what happened under New Labour.

Stu's picture

@Andre Lopes

It's very nice of you to say Labour have or nearly saved the UK from all the debt they accrued over the decade and god almighty we should thank them for their economic policies, if it wasn't for them then we would be far worse than now... I wouldn't share your opinion.

Any government would have bailed the banks if it came down to it and any government would have imposed the cuts and hike in taxes. Sure Labour would cut slowly be alittle less agressive and that might work slightly better in the short run, however lets not forget how we got into this mess.

Your beloved Labour (if indeed you are pro-Labour) had 10 years of boom in which they failed to save and invest the money properly and borrowed even more money for their incompetence thus creating the largest debt known in the history of Britain. To then turn around and apologise for the deregulation of the banks and not for the lack of foresight into the inevitable bust to follow is pretty unforgivable. Unless Labour produces some A4 with their plans for growth they are not credible.

mike555's picture

What did the housing boom under New Labour do for the low and middle earners and their ability to buy homes and raise families? I wonder if Matt will answer for once?

mike555's picture

@Matt

Can't you answer a single question rather than refer everything back to the Tories 20 - 30 years ago?

mike555's picture

@Matt

"Poor Bozo555, the only thing juvenile is your economic analysis."

More pathetic childish insults, and no answers, as usual.

mike555's picture

@Matt

"It seems you don't have a problem with a conservative housing boom, why is that Bozo555. "

Don't know why Matt keeps saying this, but for the record I think all housing booms above and beyond inflation are bad, including the 1979 - 1990 boom.

I wonder if Matt will acknowledge the disastrous boom under New Labour?

mike555's picture

@Matt

Hopefully Matt won't disappear without answering any questions, as usual.

Vic Singh's picture

Why do all the Tory trolls bother commenting here if they think we lefties are stupid?

Do they think in their deluded Tory world that we will actually be persuaded by the Right wing law of the jungle views?

Rob the Red (football not politics)'s picture

so... your saying Labour bails out the banks = labour good... banks aren't lending in 2011 = torys bad.. oh my god. maybe with a tiny bit of foresight instead of labour bailing the banks without any contractual obligations... then saying, "oh actually, would you mind lending some money, and actually, would it be ok if you didn't give big bonuses... pretty please?" maybe, just maybe a sinsible approach would have been... "we'll bail you... but only if you sign this, legally binding contract to up the lending and down the bonuses... and by the way, if you don't like our rescue package, we'll repossess you and sign it for you! LABOUR GOT US INTO THIS MESS... FACT! I know loads of "lefties" STILL moaning about "Margaret Bloody Thatcher" get over it! it's 2011... it's hard times, but thats YOUR fault... it wont be easy n quick but the Tories WILL get us there safer and stronger than Labour would. Balls to Balls!

Rob the Red (football not politics)'s picture

and by the way... the Tory supporters suffered 13years of Blair Brown... we let you have your go... now quit whining, quit marching (costing the country even more cash it doesn't have in lost work + policing bills) and get on with your life! in around 2015 you have your chance to vote Blair Jnr in!

Labour... short term policies to look good while in power at the sacrifice of the country long term, but hey, the tories will be in by then and we can blame them.. your only mistake was winning your last term... it'd have worked perfectly without that... FACT is... up until 2008-2009 Labour MPs were sat on BBC-QT blaming the countries ills on Major in the early 90s... 11/12years ago! the Tories have been in for 5minutes and everything is their fault, NOTHING stems from 1997-2010. doesn't add up does it?

Scotty's picture

Some desperate labour mathematicians around today it seems - .5% fall takes us to 99.5% and then 5% rise takes us to 99.9975%, however ALL these figures are being rounded up so 100% is near enough for me.
The fact remains that the world is in a downspiral due to a number of factors and we are not in a good place to improve the economy - the question is why are we were we are, labour denialists say it's osbornes fault, and of course 13 years of labour not doing anything to prepare us for a bad period is not an answer they like. However it is true.
Unbalanced economy - thanks labour, massive debt - thanks labour, lack of skills in our youth - thanks labour, poor control of banks - thanks labour.
And anyone who listens to that car salesman balls and thinks he could do better, with millie mandela nodding away in the background is living in cloud cuckoo land.

matthew fox's picture

Still in denial mode Bozo555, he loves picking and choosing his housing booms.

I noticed your rowing back from the language of " economically and socially divisive " strange that isn't it Bozo555.

The only thing I see disappearing is Conservative Economic thinking.

Andre Lopes's picture

@Stu - Oh go on then, I'll bite and for the record, I'm not a a party member nor a supporter (I've voted for all major parties). All the debt they'd accrued? Up until 2008 we were either in surplus or with a healthy deficit ( < 3%). Yet again, you're just quoting the government that "Labour went made with the credit cards" over 13 years. Again, we have this idea that Labour failed to plan for disaster and save for the bust - along with the vast majority of the developed world.

I'm really lost by this argument that unilateral regulation from the government would have somehow saved the situation and that also, had the FSA not been created, it wouldn't have happened. Regulation was only one small party of the ensuing crises, other than demanding bank hold higher reserve capital ratios, I honestly can't see how they could have really prevented the original spread of toxic assets. It would have required international agreement on it and with America's commitment to the free market (and opposition to anything remotely sounding like government intervention), I don't think little Britain could really have done much.

Where I do think Labour did get it wrong was by taking too long to come with a long term plan once the initial shock to the system occurred. By this point the markets had already had too long to start doubting Britain. My issue is not with "tories" but with Osborne's blinding commitment to a plan which doesn't appear to be working as intended. Amending it won't show weakness (or that he "got it wrong") but will show that he's actually being proactive to changes in market conditions.

Cath's picture

Scotty - the difference isn't huge because the percentages involved are pretty small. But the principle stands and the media should be getting this stuff right. Imagine a fall of, say, 50% one year followed by a rise of 50% the next - that commodity or whatever is not back where it started!

mike555's picture

@Matt

"Still in denial mode Bozo555, he loves picking and choosing his housing booms."

Truly dismal comment, even by your standards, I think we can all see who's in denial and who answers nothing.

"I noticed your rowing back from the language of " economically and socially divisive " strange that isn't it Bozo555."

What on earth are you talking about now? I don't need to backtrack on anything, my argument is consistent and clear. Your efforts to ridicule my posts are increasingly pathetic.

mike555's picture

@Matt

Hopefully you'll get round to answering that very long list of questions, but I very much doubt you will.

I'm happy to keep on answering your pathetic posts all day long, you should know that by now. Keep it coming.

Stu's picture

@Andre Lopes
Whatever the argument or debate there's no running away from fact. We are in debt, Labour simply carried it over from the Tories and topped it right up.

Other countries are fairing much better in these harsh times, why can't Britain? what happened? Clearly something could have been done that wasn't!

maybe if Labour would have developed our manufacturing business sector so we have business through trade instead of reducing it and investing in the financial (eventually relying on) sector, we could have dealt with it better?

Any deficit is not 'healthy' just because we are deemed to be able to pay it back doesn't mean we are ok to be in debt as you can see in reality we can't pay it back and even today it's still increasing.

I would also like to see a proactive government and an Osbourne that can change his plans but we all know all political parties are more concerned about popularity and electability.

The coalition know that as soon as they do another u-turn Labour will waste no time in laying into them instead of saying 'well done chaps we've helped Britain closer to recovery than before, team Britain!' they will most certainly use it as a tool to bring them down thus increasing their own popularity and electability and worm their way back into power. - and the cycle repeats itself...

matthew fox's picture

Another none response from Bozo555.

If I need a lesson in being pathetic, I will ask you, your the expert.

There is no effort needed in ridicule you, I leave that task to you.

Remind me which genius kept talking of the housing boom 1997-2010, even though house prices decline in 2008 and 2010?

mike555's picture

@Matt

"Another none response from Bozo555. "

In what way? Funny comment coming from someone who can't answer anything.

"Remind me which genius kept talking of the housing boom 1997-2010, even though house prices decline in 2008 and 2010?"

Pathetic, remind me what happened to the average house price between 1997 and 2010, even though prices declined in 2008 and 2010 (very slightly)? Or better still, what happened to house prices between 1997 and 2007? Any answer will do (though we won't get one).

Gracie's picture

@ Al Bonte 10.06

Can you please tell me how David Blanchflower, Ed balls and Ed Miliband being right all along is losing the argument?

The economy did not only flatline this past 6 months, perhaps one of the economists on the NS can actually explain it contracted by about 0.25% I believe.

mike555's picture

Note how Matt hasn't answered any of my questions. What a surprise.

mike555's picture

@Matt

"There is no effort needed in ridicule you, I leave that task to you."

You still haven't managed to find any flaws in my arguments, despite your feeble claims to the contrary.

mike555's picture

@Matt

"If I need a lesson in being pathetic, I will ask you, your the expert."

Post up some examples of me being 'pathetic'?

Gracie's picture

Cameron and Osborne were the ones playing games with the economy and talking it down for 2 years BEFORE they got into power, and then they stepped it up once they wormed their way in after not winning the election. They systematically and deliberately talked down the economy, comparing us with the PIIGS, using silly analogy's like we were "maxed out on the nation's credit card" and that we were "almost bankrupt", when they know perfectly well we were not. Cameron and Osborne helped by that other hapless wonder Clegg, have destroyed consumer confidence ahead of their certifiably insane austerity package - just how sensible was that? Now their mad chickens are beginning to come home to roost.
If the economy doesn't do better than at least 1.75% in Q2 then this government have got us into terrible trouble and they cannot blame labour, labour actually handed the economy over in recovery with strengthening growth, low inflation, falling unemployment and now Osborne's own OBR looks like it is going to have to downgrade growth yet again. This is the Tory's doing, they are useless, thank God they were not in charge when we had the GLOBAL financial recession and the international banking crisis, if they were then we would have been bankrupt by now.

jie4v7i14's picture

0.5% is pretty pathetic, isn't it, when last month they were saying it would be 0.8%.

Next thing Osborne will be telling us is not to bother leaving the house in the morning. He is pathetic.

mike555's picture

Oh look it's Matt with more childish insults and no answers as usual.

"I see Bozo555 fails to understand there was no economic growth over the last six months."

Er, no I don't. How do you arrive at that conclusion? Your logic is truly baffling.

"I wish he would remember how house prices boomed between 1979-1990."

Still carrying on with that line I see. I was 4 in 1979 Matt, you know this because I've told you several times, it is not for me to justify the housing boom under the Tories. That boom has been and gone, houses were releatively affordable in 1997. The effects of the boom under New Labour are still with us.

matthew fox's picture

I see Bozo555 fails to understand there was no economic growth over the last six months.

I wish he would remember how house prices boomed between 1979-1990.

matthew fox's picture

As usual Luddite is way off the pace.

The deficit plan was suppose to eliminate the deficit within 5 years. One year on, the forecast for 2015 is £23 Billion.

With the economy failing to grow over the last 6 months, we are on the road to nowhere.

ang's picture

Well said matthew fox.
Luddite fails to mention that the economy was growing at 1.7%Gdp in May 2010. Labour said they would start their programme of cuts when the economy was robust, (I would imagine that to be around 2%GDP), wheras Osborne is cutting even deeper while the economy is flat-lining, what an utter nonce!

mike555's picture

I'm sure we could get the economy growing at 1.7% again if we just print a load of money again.

PeteyMcPeterson's picture

When you consider how much of the Tory economic plan hinges on growth this year; growth which, it was pointed out at the time, was never likely, it seems like we need Michael Kaine back, perhaps he would like to reconsider his political alignment now.

ang's picture

A 4.7% dip in construction was due to cancellations of building projects, of new schools, new hospitals, you know, the things that ordinary folk like and appreciate and rely on.
Labour didn't just print money, they invested it in people and that is why I will always vote Labour.

mike555's picture

@ang

"Labour didn't just print money, they invested it in people and that is why I will always vote Labour."

That GDP was rising as Labour left was surely at least partly down to the printing of £200bn in the way of QE? If you print such a colossal amount of money you would expect a jump in GDP, much more than we actually got perhaps?

Unfortunately the huge rise in house prices undid a lot of the good New Labour did, pricing the low and middle earners out of buying a home to raise a family in and leaving consumers heavily in debt, which is why I didn't vote for them last time around.

Ekcol's picture

Please, please, someone in the media tell me you understand how percentages work. Please, at least 1 journalist, point out that shrinking by 0.5% then growing 0.5% makes the economy smaller than 6 months ago, not the same size.

Al Bronte's picture

So, is Ed Balls the man to solve all our economic woe?

I think not, i think not.

The ever-shrill Blanchflower, Balls and Miliband lost the economic argument.

Playing party political games with the economy and trying to take political advantage of the situation the left got the nation into in the first place is a disgrace.

Stan's picture

Ah, so being correct all along is the new "lost the economic argument". Oh how entertaining is the deluded tory mind.

mike555's picture

@Matt

I fully acknowledge the housing boom under the Tories was a disaster for many, though inflation offset it somewhat.

I wonder if Matt will acknowledge the disaster of the boom in house prices under New Labour and the effects it has on the low and medium paid?

Nick9's picture

Osborne is no chancellor, he just doesn't get it. All these radical reforms, white & green papers, consultations, studies, efficiency reports, upping taxes, cutting jobs, - they're getting us no where!

No growth = no deficit reduction.

The biggest worry is what's round the corner. High unemployment, people moved off the sick and on to JSA with more crazy money being wasted on welfare to work when it should be spent on real jobs. Not to mention the tsunami of repossessions which await.

All Osborne's predictions are wrong because he doesn't know what he's doing.

These policies are just based on the ideals of an out of touch bunch of toffs playing Tom Brown's schooldays with all those they see as beneath them.

Mike S's picture

Stan - it's not entertaining, its scary. These idealogues will not be happy until the country's economy implodes.

swatantra's picture

Damn. Its back to the drawing board and Plan Bee, if there is one.
At least Balls has more idea of running the economy than novice Osborne.
Govts have been telling Bankers to lend to businesses and stimulate economic growth, but they still won't. So more pressure needs to be applied, or incentives offered.

Pat's picture

I think the ones playing politics with the economy are the Tories - they AGREED with Labour's spending plans until 2008. If the plans were so irresponsible, why did they do this? And why did they suddenly call for massive cuts in 2008? Naked political calculation.

Giuseppe's picture

@Ekcol

"shrinking by 0.5% then growing 0.5% makes the economy smaller than 6 months ago, not the same size."

Thankyou!! I have been tearing my hair out at this error!

THE ECONOMY HAS SHRUNK OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS!! (marginally)

Stu's picture

Economy is rubbish, whats new? at least we're not in the likes of PIG! (portugal, Ireland, Greece) yet... Spain will be the next one to go and then the UK will suffer even more.

@swatantra nandanwar
You honestly think Ed Balls is equipped? he's the one that helped GB put us in this mess and you want more of him. All he's going to do is borrow more money and hope everything picks up enough for him to then put up taxes at a later date to repay the debt! thats Labour for you... put it off until the end which is where we are now!

@Pat
I'm not sure anyone knew the exact extent of the damage Labour imposed on us. For all you know in that budget report they could put any mickey mouse figures and hope we turn a blind eye very much as it is now.

@Al Bronte
Agree :D

matthew fox's picture

Poor Bozo555, the only thing juvenile is your economic analysis.

Your an individual who failed to mention house prices dropped in 2008 and 2010, who cannot explain why CGT was merged in 2008.

The line about booming house prices between 1979-1990 is extremely valid, it is a historical fact, according to you, a housing boom is " socially and economic divisive " not my words Bozo555, yours, please remember that.

It seems you don't have a problem with a conservative housing boom, why is that Bozo555.

But let me give you some more historical date on 1997, inflation stood at 3.1%, interest rates stood at 6.25%, unemployment was a 2.5 Million.

I am not surprised you have mentioned low incomes again, you have forgot that Mrs T double the number of low income households in her reign, while fuelling a housing boom.

Your not one for facts are you Bozo555.

Luddite's picture

It's early days, the defict was over a decade in the making. Who ever said debt reduction would be easy or painless, and let's be brutally honest here, if Labour was still in government, it to would be doing very much the same.

Indu Pendent's picture

Please stop air brushing the causes of the UK's mess out of history.

The last government borrowed £350Bn before 2008 (what did our kid get for the money) and was responsible for the fastest decline in UK industry since the 1970s.

We have a sprawling unaffordable public sector which needs cutting and a depleted private sector which in a lot of areas no longer has a critical mass.

Living standard have been propped artifically up by huge borrowing - all the Tories are doing is slowing down the rate of borrowing they have no plans to repay any of it.

Labour policy is developed to win power by maniputalting votes of sections of the population rather than focusing on the national interest. The party lacks the right Balls to deal with unpopular decisions.

Nick9's picture

Oh and furthermore, the picture at the top of this article does rather look like Osborne is sitting on the pan:- kind of severely constipated? Which I guess is further evidence that he's just full of shite?

Andre Lopes's picture

@Stu

Could you be a bit more specific in the "extent of the damage Labour imposed on us" - I'm intrigued to see whether you're simply quoting government minsters or have actually come to that conclusion through independent means....

If by that you mean potentially saving the British modern banking system from collapse (and the knock-on effect it would have on other countries) followed by an economic stimulus plan to keep the economy running followed by a phasing in of cuts and taxes (at a much less regressive ratio than the tories), then christ, you might be onto one there.

Jack's picture

Labour have nothing to say beyond rebuttal and smear (sounds like a law firm). They hide behind their Union paymsters with accompanying hysterical shroud waving, with only one aim in mind. To get back into power, whatever the cost. The Tories have many faults but that doesn't make Labour worthy or credible.

Hasson's picture

It is the rest of us that will suffer as Osborne cannot grasp that without growth, the deficit will never be dealt with. You cannot deal with the deficit by cuts and austerity alone. http://bit.ly/hBfySD

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