Oliver Letwin apologises to Sheffield. Or does he?

Tory minister’s slip of the tongue shows what our Old Etonian rulers really think of the north.

A few days ago, Oliver Letwin got into trouble after he said he did not want to see people from Sheffield using cheap flights to go on holiday. He had been talking to Boris Johnson about airport policy. Only the two men knew who said what and one of them leaked what had been said.

The remark caused huge offence in South Yorkshire, with Nick Clegg saying Letwin was not very popular in Sheffield. (Clegg is a bit of an expert on politicians and popularity in Sheffield.)

I wrote to Letwin asking him to apologise to people in South Yorkshire after his patronising insult. Today, I received a reply in which he writes:

I don't think it would be appropriate for me to comment on what is alleged to have been said in a private conversation. However, I can assure you that I would never knowingly say something offensive to the people of Sheffield.

I have been trying to deconstruct his letter. Letwin, after all, has the reputation of being an intellectual. Yet this is the oddest not-quite-an-apology I have ever seen from a minister. Letwin says he would "never knowingly say something offensive" about the people of Sheffield. That sounds as if he is admitting he did make the remarks attributed to him which have caused such offence in South Yorkshire – but that he did not make them "knowingly".

Letwin was silly to assume any conversation with his fellow Old Etonian Boris Johnson would ever remain private if Boris could turn it to his advantage as part of his campaign to distance himself from his other Old Etonian mate David Cameron, in order to stay on as Mayor of London.

The notion of a private conversation is not one that this generation of Old Etonian Tories understands – especially where there is political advantage to be gained. I think it is safe to assume that Letwin did make the offensive remarks attributed to him, but would not make them in public.

Is not this double standard – sneering at South Yorkshire people in private but saying he would not "knowingly" do so in public – precisely what this present government stands accused of? In public, its members claim to support the National Health Service, help poorer students, keep our forests public or work constructively in Europe. Behind the veil, however, the private view of our new governing elite is very different.

I guess we must thank Boris for breaching a confidence and showing what our Old Etonian rulers really think of the north.

Denis MacShane is the MP for Rotherham (Labour) and a former minister for Europe at the Foreign Office.

Denis MacShane is MP for Rotherham and was a minister at Foreign and Commonwealth Office
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Who will win in Stoke-on-Trent?

Labour are the favourites, but they could fall victim to a shock in the Midlands constituency.  

The resignation of Tristram Hunt as MP for Stoke-on-Central has triggered a by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stoke on Trent Central. That had Westminster speculating about the possibility of a victory for Ukip, which only intensified once Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was installed as the candidate.

If Nuttall’s message that the Labour Party has lost touch with its small-town and post-industrial heartlands is going to pay dividends at the ballot box, there can hardly be a better set of circumstances than this: the sitting MP has quit to take up a well-paid job in London, and although  the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs voted to block Brexit, the well-advertised divisions in that party over the vote should help Ukip.

But Labour started with a solid lead – it is always more useful to talk about percentages, not raw vote totals – of 16 points in 2015, with the two parties of the right effectively tied in second and third place. Just 33 votes separated Ukip in second from the third-placed Conservatives.

There was a possible – but narrow – path to victory for Ukip that involved swallowing up the Conservative vote, while Labour shed votes in three directions: to the Liberal Democrats, to Ukip, and to abstention.

But as I wrote at the start of the contest, Ukip were, in my view, overwritten in their chances of winning the seat. We talk a lot about Labour’s problem appealing to “aspirational” voters in Westminster, but less covered, and equally important, is Ukip’s aspiration problem.

For some people, a vote for Ukip is effectively a declaration that you live in a dump. You can have an interesting debate about whether it was particularly sympathetic of Ken Clarke to brand that party’s voters as “elderly male people who have had disappointing lives”, but that view is not just confined to pro-European Conservatives. A great number of people, in Stoke and elsewhere, who are sympathetic to Ukip’s positions on immigration, international development and the European Union also think that voting Ukip is for losers.

That always made making inroads into the Conservative vote harder than it looks. At the risk of looking very, very foolish in six days time, I found it difficult to imagine why Tory voters in Hanley would take the risk of voting Ukip. As I wrote when Nuttall announced his candidacy, the Conservatives were, in my view, a bigger threat to Labour than Ukip.

Under Theresa May, almost every move the party has made has been designed around making inroads into the Ukip vote and that part of the Labour vote that is sympathetic to Ukip. If the polls are to be believed, she’s succeeding nationally, though even on current polling, the Conservatives wouldn’t have enough to take Stoke on Trent Central.

Now Theresa May has made a visit to the constituency. Well, seeing as the government has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, it’s not as if the Prime Minister needs to find time to visit the seat, particularly when there is another, easier battle down the road in the shape of the West Midlands mayoral election.

But one thing is certain: the Conservatives wouldn’t be sending May down if they thought that they were going to do worse than they did in 2015.

Parties can be wrong of course. The Conservatives knew that they had found a vulnerable spot in the last election as far as a Labour deal with the SNP was concerned. They thought that vulnerable spot was worth 15 to 20 seats. They gained 27 from the Liberal Democrats and a further eight from Labour.  Labour knew they would underperform public expectations and thought they’d end up with around 260 to 280 seats. They ended up with 232.

Nevertheless, Theresa May wouldn’t be coming down to Stoke if CCHQ thought that four days later, her party was going to finish fourth. And if the Conservatives don’t collapse, anyone betting on Ukip is liable to lose their shirt. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.