The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Why a Yes vote depends on Labour voters

The party’s voters are split exactly 50:50 on whether to back the Alternative Vote.

By George Eaton Published 20 April 2011 16:34

With just two weeks to go until the AV referendum, the chances of a Yes vote are rapidly evaporating. The latest YouGov poll gives the No campaign a 16-point lead, as an ICM poll did earlier this week. Among those who are likely to vote, 58 per cent say they will vote No and 42 per cent say they will vote Yes.

The result reflects the mendacious but effective campaign run by No to AV and Yes2AV's failure to identify a single winning message. What's clear from the poll is that the Yes campaign should use the time that remains to win over Labour voters. As I've noted before, while Lib Dem voters are overwhelmingly in favour of reform (83 per cent to 17 per cent) and Conservative voters are overwhelmingly opposed (84 per cent to 16 per cent), Labour voters are split exactly down the middle (50 per cent to 50 per cent).

YouGov's Anthony Wells observes that if Conservative voters continue to oppose AV in these proportions, Labour voters will have to vote Yes by 2-1 in order for AV to pass. He adds: "None of our recent polling has shown Labour voters backing AV in anything like these proportions."

If AV is rejected, we can expect many Lib Dems to accuse Ed Miliband of failing to do enough to win over his own party.

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Tags: AV referendum Ed Miliband Electoral Reform

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4 comments

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:55 — swatantra nandanwar

The fact is Labour voters aren't bothered, one way or the other, and no different from the rest of the voters. Only the activists in each camp are bothered, as is the case on most issues.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:26 — Dave C (not verified)

"If AV is rejected, we can expect many Lib Dems to accuse Ed Miliband of failing to do enough to win over his own party."

Probably so.

However, the Lib Dems have done various things to erode Labour goodwill.

1. Linking AV irrelevantly to a hasty boundary review

2. Insisting on a 5 May date at the same time as the Scottish, Welsh, and NI assembly elections and the English local elections. Labour wanted a referendum on a separate date before October 2011. It's hardly surprising that, with limited resources, Labour has decided to concentrate on getting people elected.

3. Acting as Little Sir Echo to the Tories, prompting some Labour supporters to vote No merely to spite Nick Clegg.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:32 — Stu (not verified)

I don't think Labour will do well under the AV systemand they know it so half of them want NO and the other want YES as they are probably ill-informed.

Eddy just wants to jump on any band wagon that opposes the coalition or tories to make themselves stand out as the people against government and the party you can trust to help the folks that need the most handouts...

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:08 — Susan O'Keeffe (not verified)

Given that the Lib Dems' leader is so despised that the Yes campaign will not be associated with him, they won't need to look as far as Labour when they start chucking their accusations around.

Start within their own camp.