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The Tory plan to sabotage a Yes vote

Conservative MPs could block AV by delaying the coalition’s boundary changes.

The polls may be pointing to a victory for No to AV, but Tory MPs are already working out how they would sabotage a Yes vote. One option under discussion is to delay the coalition's boundary changes.

As I've pointed out before, the 2015 general election will be held under AV only if the redrawn boundaries have been implemented.

Alternatively, the Tories could block reform by forcing an early election. The boundary review isn't due to conclude until 2013, which means that any election before this date will be fought under first-past-the-post.

Julian Lewis, the former Tory frontbencher, tells the Times (£): "I would be prepared to consider any legitimate means available to find a way of either reversing or circumventing the outcome." If AV is passed on a low turnout, with Scotland winning the day, many will be prepared to join him.

At the No to AV event yesterday, David Cameron insisted that he would not allow FPTP diehards to override a Yes vote in this way. But if the referendum is lost, Cameron's stock will be low and he may struggle to contain a rebellion. The many Labour MPs opposed to FPTP would be prepared to unite with the Tory rebels to block the introduction of AV.

For the Yes camp, the battle may have just begun.

Tags: AV referendum  Electoral Reform

16 comments

Stu's picture

If the tories didn't then this whole debate wouldn't be a debate and it won't be interesting eh? someone's gotta be the bad guys depends if you want AV or not lol...

Politicians have always been ruthless.. it's all about power and whos got it right now. Labour were just as ruthless when they were in power so swings and roundabouts

Colin's picture

There's a Dirty Little Secret they don't want you to know about AV - you can find out all about it with this short video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmP81NW9_O0

JamesB1's picture

Whatever the result, this is potentially a coalition breaker.

Yes and Cameron faces a massive Tory backlash.
No and Clegg faces a massive Lib Dem backlash.

Arturo Bandini's picture

Definitive proof of the contempt for any genuine democracy in the UK when even a plebiscite is disregarded by these arrogant 'representatives" of ours.

J Lam's picture

A referendum is, of course, not legally binding on parliament but there would be a constitutional crisis if this were to happen, even if it were only a matter of 0.1% of the vote.

Jon S's picture

Although I'm in support of the referendum for AV (with the aim, like many, of hoping to achieve PR), I think it's very unlikely that the Yes campaign will persuade voters.

The No lobby is, essentially, using an ungrounded smear campaign in its literature. Many for the No cause would argue there are many great points against the adoption of AV in this country, but they just aren't being utilised.

Instead, the No campaign seems reliant on trying to convince people of the 'complicated' nature of the system, and the horrendous 'cost' of the referendum. Neither holding particularly true, given the fact that the system involves ranking candidates in order of preference, and leaving those candidates out that one has no preference between, and the figures used on the cost are distorted and seem to have been invented from no solid facts.

There are plenty of other problems with the No campaign - citing 6/10 Australians as not liking the system, despite the survey Cameron used for this 'fact' not actually offering Australians AV and using the fact that AV is not used in many countries as some sort of over-arching conclusive point.

But the real problem comes with the campaign in London - in my opinion. The most populous city in the country is subjected to a saturation of No propaganda. Although there are debates and the Yes campaign has advertising space, No dominates. Most bus stations have 'No to av' signs, while the newspaper most commuters read on the way home from work - The Evening Standard - has included an appeal against AV from the Prime Minister and the paper's own request for a No vote from Londoners, but nothing from the side of the Yes camp.

As Cameron is against the referedum, and Clegg unable, or perhaps unwilling, to promote it (at the platform in favour of AV yesterday) the odds seem stacked against a 'Yes' from the outset. It doesn't help that many behind the campaign back it half-heartedly because they really want to see, ultimately, PR. It's hard to get completely behind a means to an end, after all.

Find me on Twitter - @legaljourno

Double Karma's picture

here have a read of these links

The secret AV escape clause
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/156447/the-secret-av-escape-clause.thtml

Why "the secret AV escape clause" won't work
http://markreckons.blogspot.com/2011/04/why-secret-av-escape-clause-wont...

mike's picture

This is why we're going for a liberal/ndp coalition if we ever have the chance in canada.
The damn tories ruin everything they touch.

Steve Swaine's picture

“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” -#MLK Martin Luther King Jr.
An article based on hot air rhetoric, hack blagging and a large bottle of helium. Conspiracy theorists rejoice, George Eaton has inflated the non-event of the year, in an unhelpful tone.
AV, STV, etc... the illegitimate offspring of the unelectable, undesirable, minority parties, envious of a twin party establishment. Bringing with it pure party branding, the eradicating of local political personalities, and a corporate make over image for each manifesto disciple.
The last vestiges of the no losers, never can win train of thought.
Lets hope that the referendum puts this and its ridiculous clones to bed and the true issues can be debated, discussed and resolved. Like this credit card bill, Nick Clegg keeps moaning on about.
He'll never be able to consolidate the debts he has incurred and favours repaid, unless AV keeps him in Sheffield... So lefties? Who wants it now with that in mind?

Hugh Markey's picture

Is John Reid any relation to the author of 'Ten Days that Shook the World?"
We suspect it's strictly 'on the nose', all or nothing, or at the least a TKO for this bonnie Scottish scrapper.
With all this talk of 'localism', we consider the break-up of the United Kingdom could lead to a loose confederation of nation states, a la Yugoslavia.
Maybe not. London encircled by the M25 would make a perfect national capitol. England, Scotland, Wales and the 'Irish' Six counties would be under the overall control of a London Federal Government. The four nations would all have their own governments; senators and representatives.
London would be a little like Washington - but without a President.

My Head Hurts

Dave's picture

I doubt it will ever come to that, but if it did then there'll be riots.
Real riots...

Dark Heart of Toryland's picture

Steve Swaine superbly demonstrates the point how the No campaign is resorting to smears and bluster, rather than reasoned argument. Obviously, small parties are opposed to the present system because they are 'unelectable' under it - but this is confusing effect with cause. 'Minority' parties are 'unelectable' only because FPTP is a flawed, winner-takes-all electoral system, which is incapable of representing modern pluralistic
politics.

The notion that opposition to FPTP derives from envy of a two-party system is simply risible - up there with the old 'politics of envy' canard. Can an electoral system which produces a two-party parliament really be said to be representative of modern British politics? This simply feeds into the 'all politicians are as bad as each other' cynicism which FPTP promotes by discounting the views of so many of the electorate. Anyway, as the present coalition amply demonstrates, FPTP is increasingly of delivering incapable of delivery the clear-cut results which its defenders claim as its chief advantage.

Stu's picture

Don't care which way it goes to be honest but for those that think the coalition is gonna break up because of... i doubt it.

Lib-Dems would have achieved their aim of having such a referendum that Labour wouldn't give them. Miserable compromise - maybe so...

Anyway the only way it would kick off is IF Labour play their 'we hate everything tory and we will oppose everything they say' card.

In which case Eddy would take to the streets with some activists and protest making himself look like he's on their side therefore achieving his aim of looking like THE real alternative but in reality he would introduce the same policies in when in government... great stuff.

Andy G's picture

@Stu Labour had a commitment to a referendum on AV in THEIR manifesto.
But you've got to admire the ruthlessness of the Tories, spending so much money & spreading so many lies to blow LibDem hopes of a change in the voting system out of the water. Clegg & the LibDem leadership have been out manoeuvred, simple as that.

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