Labour heading for overall majority in Wales

YouGov poll indicates a political shift in Wales.

It is a year of important decisions for Wales.

On 3 March, the country voted on a referendum which asked if the people wanted the Welsh Assembly to have full law making powers on a range of 20 subjects - including health, education and housing - without having to consult the UK Parliament.

The outcome was a massive "yes".

The next big decision comes on 5 May, when the National Assembly elections take place. Thanks to the referendum, Wales will vote for an Assembly which will have many more powers than at the previous elections in 2007.

Interestingly, the first YouGov Welsh poll to be released after the referendum showed that at current ratings, on a constituency level, Labour have gained a 3 point increase on last month's poll, bringing their support up to 48 per cent, while the Conservatives have dropped 1 point to 20 per cent support.

At the regional level, Labour are up 4 points to 45 per cent, and the Conservatives remain unchanged at 20 per cent. Support for the Lib Dems remains low, but strangely the nationalist party Plaid Cymru's ratings have dropped slightly too, even after Wales celebrated a degree of further national independence from England. The party also lost the Cardiff Riverside seat to Labour in a by-election on the 3rd March, the same day as the referendum.

In the Assembly voters have one constituency member and four regional members representing them. Constituency members are elected using first-past-the-post whilst regional members use the more proportional Additional Member System.

UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells said of the poll:

On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.

Liam McLaughlin is a freelance journalist who has also written for Prospect and the Huffington Post. He tweets irregularly @LiamMc108.

Photo: Getty Images
Show Hide image

The buck doesn't stop with Grant Shapps - and probably shouldn't stop with Lord Feldman, either

The question of "who knew what, and when?" shouldn't stop with the Conservative peer.

If Grant Shapps’ enforced resignation as a minister was intended to draw a line under the Mark Clarke affair, it has had the reverse effect. Attention is now shifting to Lord Feldman, who was joint chair during Shapps’  tenure at the top of CCHQ.  It is not just the allegations of sexual harrassment, bullying, and extortion against Mark Clarke, but the question of who knew what, and when.

Although Shapps’ resignation letter says that “the buck” stops with him, his allies are privately furious at his de facto sacking, and they are pointing the finger at Feldman. They point out that not only was Feldman the senior partner on paper, but when the rewards for the unexpected election victory were handed out, it was Feldman who was held up as the key man, while Shapps was given what they see as a relatively lowly position in the Department for International Development.  Yet Feldman is still in post while Shapps was effectively forced out by David Cameron. Once again, says one, “the PM’s mates are protected, the rest of us shafted”.

As Simon Walters reports in this morning’s Mail on Sunday, the focus is turning onto Feldman, while Paul Goodman, the editor of the influential grassroots website ConservativeHome has piled further pressure on the peer by calling for him to go.

But even Feldman’s resignation is unlikely to be the end of the matter. Although the scope of the allegations against Clarke were unknown to many, questions about his behaviour were widespread, and fears about the conduct of elections in the party’s youth wing are also longstanding. Shortly after the 2010 election, Conservative student activists told me they’d cheered when Sadiq Khan defeated Clarke in Tooting, while a group of Conservative staffers were said to be part of the “Six per cent club” – they wanted a swing big enough for a Tory majority, but too small for Clarke to win his seat. The viciousness of Conservative Future’s internal elections is sufficiently well-known, meanwhile, to be a repeated refrain among defenders of the notoriously opaque democratic process in Labour Students, with supporters of a one member one vote system asked if they would risk elections as vicious as those in their Tory equivalent.

Just as it seems unlikely that Feldman remained ignorant of allegations against Clarke if Shapps knew, it feels untenable to argue that Clarke’s defeat could be cheered by both student Conservatives and Tory staffers and the unpleasantness of the party’s internal election sufficiently well-known by its opponents, without coming across the desk of Conservative politicians above even the chair of CCHQ’s paygrade.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.