Labour heading for overall majority in Wales

YouGov poll indicates a political shift in Wales.

It is a year of important decisions for Wales.

On 3 March, the country voted on a referendum which asked if the people wanted the Welsh Assembly to have full law making powers on a range of 20 subjects - including health, education and housing - without having to consult the UK Parliament.

The outcome was a massive "yes".

The next big decision comes on 5 May, when the National Assembly elections take place. Thanks to the referendum, Wales will vote for an Assembly which will have many more powers than at the previous elections in 2007.

Interestingly, the first YouGov Welsh poll to be released after the referendum showed that at current ratings, on a constituency level, Labour have gained a 3 point increase on last month's poll, bringing their support up to 48 per cent, while the Conservatives have dropped 1 point to 20 per cent support.

At the regional level, Labour are up 4 points to 45 per cent, and the Conservatives remain unchanged at 20 per cent. Support for the Lib Dems remains low, but strangely the nationalist party Plaid Cymru's ratings have dropped slightly too, even after Wales celebrated a degree of further national independence from England. The party also lost the Cardiff Riverside seat to Labour in a by-election on the 3rd March, the same day as the referendum.

In the Assembly voters have one constituency member and four regional members representing them. Constituency members are elected using first-past-the-post whilst regional members use the more proportional Additional Member System.

UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells said of the poll:

On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.

Liam McLaughlin is a freelance journalist who has also written for Prospect and the Huffington Post. He tweets irregularly @LiamMc108.

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The Brexiteers have lost battles but they are still set to win the war

The prospect of the UK avoiding Brexit, or even a "hard" version, remains doubtful. 

Before the general election, the Brexiteers would boast that everything had gone their way. Parliament had voted to trigger Article 50 by a majority of 372. The Treasury-forecast recession hadn't occurred. And polls showed the public backing Brexit by a comfortable margin

But since the Conservatives' electoral humbling, the Leavers have been forced to retreat on multiple fronts. After promising in May that the dispute over the timetable for the Brexit talks would be "the fight of the summer", David Davis capitulated on the first day. The UK will be forced to settle matters such as EU citizens' rights, the Irish border and the divorce bill before discussions begin on a future relationship. Having previously insisted that a new trade deal could agreed by 29 March 2019 (Britain's scheduled departure date), the Brexiteers have now conceded that this is, in Liam Fox's words, "optimistic" (translation: deluded). 

That means the transitional arrangement the Leavers once resisted is now regarded as inevitable. After the eradication of the Conservatives' majority, the insistence that "no deal is better than a bad deal" is no longer credible. No deal would mean the immediate return of a hard Northern Irish border (to the consternation of the Tories' partners the DUP) and, in a hung parliament, there are no longer the votes required to pursue a radical deregulatory, free market agenda (for the purpose of undercutting the EU). As importantly for the Conservatives, an apocalyptic exit could pave the way for a Jeremy Corbyn premiership (a figure they previously regarded as irretrievably doomed). 

Philip Hammond, emboldened by the humiliation of the Prime Minister who planned to sack him, has today outlined an alternative. After formally departing the EU in 2019, Britain will continue to abide by the rules of the single market and the customs union: the acceptance of free movement, European legal supremacy, continued budget contributions and a prohibition on independent trade deals. Faced with the obstacles described above, even hard Brexiteers such as Liam Fox and Michael Gove have recognised that the game is up.

But though they have lost battles, the Leavers are still set to win the war. There is no parliamentary majority for a second referendum (with the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats still enfeebled), Hammond has conceded that any transitional arrangement would end by June 2022 (the sceduled date of the next election) and most MPs are prepared to accept single market withdrawal. The prospect of Britain avoiding Brexit, or even a "hard" version, remains doubtful. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.