Labour heading for overall majority in Wales

YouGov poll indicates a political shift in Wales.

It is a year of important decisions for Wales.

On 3 March, the country voted on a referendum which asked if the people wanted the Welsh Assembly to have full law making powers on a range of 20 subjects - including health, education and housing - without having to consult the UK Parliament.

The outcome was a massive "yes".

The next big decision comes on 5 May, when the National Assembly elections take place. Thanks to the referendum, Wales will vote for an Assembly which will have many more powers than at the previous elections in 2007.

Interestingly, the first YouGov Welsh poll to be released after the referendum showed that at current ratings, on a constituency level, Labour have gained a 3 point increase on last month's poll, bringing their support up to 48 per cent, while the Conservatives have dropped 1 point to 20 per cent support.

At the regional level, Labour are up 4 points to 45 per cent, and the Conservatives remain unchanged at 20 per cent. Support for the Lib Dems remains low, but strangely the nationalist party Plaid Cymru's ratings have dropped slightly too, even after Wales celebrated a degree of further national independence from England. The party also lost the Cardiff Riverside seat to Labour in a by-election on the 3rd March, the same day as the referendum.

In the Assembly voters have one constituency member and four regional members representing them. Constituency members are elected using first-past-the-post whilst regional members use the more proportional Additional Member System.

UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells said of the poll:

On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.

Liam McLaughlin is a freelance journalist who has also written for Prospect and the Huffington Post. He tweets irregularly @LiamMc108.

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Why Theresa May can't end speculation of an early general election

Both Conservative and Labour MPs regard a contest next year as the solution to their problems. 

One of Theresa May’s first acts as a Conservative leadership candidate was to rule out an early general election. After a tumultuous 2015 contest and the EU referendum, her view was that the country required a period of stability (a view shared by voters). Many newly-elected Tory MPs, fearful of a Brexit-inspired Ukip or Liberal Democrat surge, supported her on this condition.

After entering Downing Street, May reaffirmed her stance. “The Prime Minister could not have been clearer,” a senior source told me. “There won’t be an early election.” Maintaining this pledge is an important part of May’s straight-talking image.

But though No.10 has wisely avoided publicly contemplating an election (unlike Gordon Brown), the question refuses to die. The Conservatives have a majority of just 12 - the smallest of any single-party government since 1974 - and, as David Cameron found, legislative defeats almost inevitably follow. May’s vow to lift the ban on new grammar schools looks to many like an unachievable task. Former education secretary Nicky Morgan and former business minister Anna Soubry are among the Tories leading the charge against the measure (which did not feature in the 2015 Conservative manifesto).  

To this problem, an early election appears to be the solution. The Tories retain a substantial opinion poll lead over Labour, the most divided opposition in recent history. An election victory would give May the mandate for new policies that she presently lacks.

“I don’t believe Theresa May wishes to hold an early election which there is evidence that the country doesn’t want and which, given the current state of the Labour Party, might be seen as opportunistic,” Nigel Lawson told today’s Times“If, however, the government were to find that it couldn’t get its legislation through the House of Commons, then a wholly new situation would arise.”

It is not only Conservatives who are keeping the possibility of an early election alive. Many Labour MPs are pleading for one in the belief that it would end Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. An early contest would also pre-empt the boundary changes planned in 2018, which are forecast to cost the party 23 seats.

For Corbyn, the possibility of an election is a vital means of disciplining MPs. Allies also hope that the failed revolt against his leadership, which Labour members blame for the party’s unpopularity, would allow him to remain leader even if defeated.

Unlike her predecessors, May faces the obstacle of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (under which the next election will be on 7 May 2020). Yet it is not an insurmountable one. The legislation can be suspended with the backing of two-thirds of MPs, or through a vote of no confidence in the government. Alternatively, the act could simply be repealed or amended. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have demanded an early election, would struggle to resist May if she called their bluff.

To many, it simply looks like an offer too good to refuse. Which is why, however hard May swats this fly, it will keep coming back. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.