Cameron slows down the NHS revolution

PM prepares to water down Andrew Lansley’s reforms after a political backlash.

David Cameron's political survival instincts finally appear to be asserting themselves. The PM, who was surprised by the level of opposition to the coalition's NHS reforms, is planning to put the brake on Andrew Lansley's revolution.Today's Times (£) reports that, instead of transferring 80 per cent of the NHS budget to GPs within two years, Downing Street now favours a slower pace of change, with 2013 "a goal rather than a deadline".

It's not hard to see why. Cameron worked hard in opposition to convince the public that the Tories could be trusted with the NHS. But the coalition's reckless reforms (likened by the Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston to tossing a "grenade" into the health service) have had the reverse effect.

Lansley is reportedly insisting that there should be no change to the scale and speed of the reforms. But he has already performed a U-turn on price competition and that weakens his hand. If the reforms can be amended once, they can be amended twice.

The "mad" decision (in the words of the British Medical Journal) to introduce the biggest upheaval in the service's history, just when the NHS is required to make unprecedented savings of between £15bn and £20bn, was never likely to bear scrutiny. I'd wager that the coalition will look again at the "any willing provider" rule and at the decision to place the NHS under EU competition law for the first time (something Cameron seemed only dimly aware of at a recent PMQs).

Cameron will reportedly sit down with Nick Clegg, George Osborne and Danny Alexander – "the quad" – to thrash out a solution in the next two weeks.

The PM is clearly determined to blunt Labour's sharp attack on his handling of the NHS. As I noted yesterday, he moved at PMQs to insist that the coalition will not break its pledge to increase NHS spending in real terms. But this expensive promise on its own won't be enough to win back goodwill.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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