Osborne’s Budget provides few reasons to be cheerful

Growth revised down. Unemployment, borrowing and inflation revised up.

Unless you're Jeremy Clarkson, it's hard to see the bright spot in today's Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts lower growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment and a slower pace of deficit reduction than it did in June. Every significant economic indicator is going in the wrong direction.

Growth for 2011 has been revised down from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent and growth for 2012 has been downgraded from 2.6 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Public-sector borrowing is now forecast to be £44.5bn higher across this parliament. And, as Will Straw points out, the OBR now predicts that unemployment will be higher than expected every year from now, starting with an increase of 40,000 in 2011 and another rise of 130,000 in 2012.

As expected, George Osborne announced that the personal allowance will be raised from £7,475 to more than £8,105 in April 2012. But this tax cut (worth £120 to all those earning less than £115,000) will be swallowed up by the coalition's "permanent" VAT rise, which will cost the average adult £310, and by the 1 per cent rise in National Insurance.

With an eye to the next quarterly growth figures, it's worth noting that the OBR is now predicting growth of 0.8 per cent for Q1 of this year. The forecasters were badly wrong last time, of course, but it looks like Osborne will avoid a double dip. Yet a recovery that was already set to be slower than those of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s will now be weaker still. The coalition's premature fiscal retrenchment has condemned Britain to years of anaemic growth.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May’s stage-managed election campaign keeps the public at bay

Jeremy Corbyn’s approach may be chaotic, but at least it’s more authentic.

The worst part about running an election campaign for a politician? Having to meet the general public. Those ordinary folk can be a tricky lot, with their lack of regard for being on-message, and their pesky real-life concerns.

But it looks like Theresa May has decided to avoid this inconvenience altogether during this snap general election campaign, as it turns out her visit to Leeds last night was so stage-managed that she barely had to face the public.

Accusations have been whizzing around online that at a campaign event at the Shine building in Leeds, the Prime Minister spoke to a room full of guests invited by the party, rather than local people or people who work in the building’s office space.

The Telegraph’s Chris Hope tweeted a picture of the room in which May was addressing her audience yesterday evening a little before 7pm. He pointed out that, being in Leeds, she was in “Labour territory”:

But a few locals who spied this picture online claimed that the audience did not look like who you’d expect to see congregated at Shine – a grade II-listed Victorian school that has been renovated into a community project housing office space and meeting rooms.

“Ask why she didn’t meet any of the people at the business who work in that beautiful building. Everyone there was an invite-only Tory,” tweeted Rik Kendell, a Leeds-based developer and designer who says he works in the Shine building. “She didn’t arrive until we’d all left for the day. Everyone in the building past 6pm was invite-only . . . They seemed to seek out the most clinical corner for their PR photos. Such a beautiful building to work in.”

Other tweeters also found the snapshot jarring:

Shine’s founders have pointed out that they didn’t host or invite Theresa May – rather the party hired out the space for a private event: “All visitors pay for meeting space in Shine and we do not seek out, bid for, or otherwise host any political parties,” wrote managing director Dawn O'Keefe. The guestlist was not down to Shine, but to the Tory party.

The audience consisted of journalists and around 150 Tory activists, according to the Guardian. This was instead of employees from the 16 offices housed in the building. I have asked the Conservative Party for clarification of who was in the audience and whether it was invite-only and am awaiting its response.

Jeremy Corbyn accused May of “hiding from the public”, and local Labour MP Richard Burgon commented that, “like a medieval monarch, she simply briefly relocated her travelling court of admirers to town and then moved on without so much as a nod to the people she considers to be her lowly subjects”.

But it doesn’t look like the Tories’ painstaking stage-management is a fool-proof plan. Having uniform audiences of the party faithful on the campaign trail seems to be confusing the Prime Minister somewhat. During a visit to a (rather sparsely populated) factory in Clay Cross, Derbyshire, yesterday, she appeared to forget where exactly on the campaign trail she was:

The management of Corbyn’s campaign has also resulted in gaffes – but for opposite reasons. A slightly more chaotic approach has led to him facing the wrong way, with his back to the cameras.

Corbyn’s blunder is born out of his instinct to address the crowd rather than the cameras – May’s problem is the other way round. Both, however, seem far more comfortable talking to the party faithful, even if they are venturing out of safe seat territory.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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