Osborne’s Budget provides few reasons to be cheerful

Growth revised down. Unemployment, borrowing and inflation revised up.

Unless you're Jeremy Clarkson, it's hard to see the bright spot in today's Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts lower growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment and a slower pace of deficit reduction than it did in June. Every significant economic indicator is going in the wrong direction.

Growth for 2011 has been revised down from 2.1 per cent to 1.7 per cent and growth for 2012 has been downgraded from 2.6 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Public-sector borrowing is now forecast to be £44.5bn higher across this parliament. And, as Will Straw points out, the OBR now predicts that unemployment will be higher than expected every year from now, starting with an increase of 40,000 in 2011 and another rise of 130,000 in 2012.

As expected, George Osborne announced that the personal allowance will be raised from £7,475 to more than £8,105 in April 2012. But this tax cut (worth £120 to all those earning less than £115,000) will be swallowed up by the coalition's "permanent" VAT rise, which will cost the average adult £310, and by the 1 per cent rise in National Insurance.

With an eye to the next quarterly growth figures, it's worth noting that the OBR is now predicting growth of 0.8 per cent for Q1 of this year. The forecasters were badly wrong last time, of course, but it looks like Osborne will avoid a double dip. Yet a recovery that was already set to be slower than those of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s will now be weaker still. The coalition's premature fiscal retrenchment has condemned Britain to years of anaemic growth.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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5 things Labour has blamed for the Copeland by-election defeat

Other than Labour, of course. 

In the early hours of Friday morning, Labour activists in Copeland received a crushing blow, when they lost a long-held constituency to the Tories

As the news sank in, everyone from the leadership down began sharing their views on what went wrong. 

Some Labour MPs who had done the door knock rounds acknowledged voters felt the party was divided, and were confused about its leadership.

But others had more imaginative reasons for defeat:

1. Tony Blair

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell told Radio 4’s Today programme that: “I don’t think it’s about individuals”. But he then laid into Tony Blair, saying: “We can’t have a circumstance again where a week before the by-election a former leader of the party attacks the party itself.”

2. Marginal seats

In a flurry of tweets, shadow Justice secretary Richard Burgon wanted everyone to know that Copeland was a marginal seat and always had been since it was created in 1983.

Which might be true, but most commentators were rather more struck by the fact Labour MPs had managed to overcome that marginality and represent the area for eighty years. 

3. The nuclear industry

In response to the defeat, Corbyn loyalist Paul Flynn tweeted: “Copeland MP is pro-nuclear right winger. No change there.” He added that Copeland was a “unique pro-nuclear seat”. 

In fact, when The New Statesman visited Copeland, we found residents far more concerned about the jobs the nuclear industry provides than any evangelical fervour for splitting atoms.

4. The political establishment

Addressing journalists the day after the defeat, Corbyn said voters were “let down by the political establishment”. So let down, they voted for the party of government.

He also blamed the “corporate controlled media”. 

5. Brexit

Corbyn's erstwhile rival Owen Smith tweeted that the defeat was "more evidence of the electoral foolhardiness of Labour chasing Brexiteers down the rabbit hole". It's certainly the case that Brexit hasn't been kind to Labour's share of the vote in Remain-voting by-elections like Richmond. But more than 56 per cent of Cumbrians voted Leave, and in Copeland the percentage was the highest, at 62 per cent. That's an awful lot of Brexiteers not to chase...

I'm a mole, innit.