The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

How unpopular are the cuts now?

Voters think the cuts are unfair and bad for the economy. But they still blame Labour.

By George Eaton Published 25 March 2011 14:34

Tomorrow's anti-cuts demonstration in London, which is likely to be the largest protest in the capital since the anti-war march in 2003, is an important political moment. George Osborne won't be blown off course by one demonstration, but the march, provided it's peaceful, should reinforce the sense that the government is losing the argument.

So, ahead of tomorrow's demonstration, here's a summary of where the public stands on the cuts.

The public thinks the cuts are unfair

Despite Osborne's attempts to present his programme as "progressive", the government lost the fairness argument almost immediately. In June, 37 per cent thought the cuts were fair and 33 per cent thought they weren't.

But by September, just 30 per cent thought they were fair and 50 per cent thought they were unfair. Now, only 26 per cent think the cuts are fair and 60 per cent think they are unfair.

The voters are, of course, entirely right to think that the cuts are unfair. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies has repeatedly demonstrated, the coalition's austerity measures hit the poorest hardest.

Source: YouGov

And bad for the economy

It's a similar story on the economy. At the time of Osborne's emergency Budget in June, 47 per cent thought the cuts would be good for the economy and 30 per cent thought they would be bad. By September, public opinion had switched sides and hasn't changed since. Following January's VAT rise and the grim news that the economy shrank by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2010, the gap widened significantly.

For now, a toxic combination of lower growth, higher inflation and higher unemployment means the coalition has little hope of winning this argument.

Source: YouGov

But they still think (some) cuts are necessary

YouGov has only recently started asking its panel if they think the cuts are necessary and the results are revealing. The majority of voters – 55 per cent – believe that the cuts are necessary, against 32 per cent who they think they are unnecessary.

Unfortunately for the coalition, this shouldn't be interpreted as an endorsement of their approach. Polling by YouGov also shows that the public opposes both the speed and the scale of the cuts. The most recent poll (20-21 March) found that 49 per cent think the cuts are too deep (6 per cent think they are too shallow and 27 per cent think they are "about right") and that 57 per cent think they are too fast (5 per cent think they are too slow and 27 per cent think they are "about right).

So while it's clear that the public, like Labour, agrees that some cuts are necessary to reduce Britain's £146bn deficit, people also believe that the coalition is going "too far and too fast".

Source: YouGov

And they still blame Labour

Too fast, too steep, unfair and bad for the economy. It might look like the coalition has lost the argument on every front. But Osborne continues to derive comfort from the fact that more people blame Labour for the cuts than the government.

Source: YouGov

The most recent YouGov poll showed that 38 per cent blame Labour, 23 per cent blame the coalition and 26 per cent blame both (surely the most sensible answer). Labour has made up some ground since June, when 49 per cent blamed them for the cuts, and public opinion is moving in the right direction for it.

But when Ed Balls recently admitted that his party was "behind on the argument on the deficit" this was undoubtedly the rating he had in mind. Labour might have led in every voting intention poll since January, but so long as voters continue to blame Labour, rather than the coalition, for the cuts, the Tories have every reason to remain hopeful.

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Tags: Spending Cuts George Osborne

More from George Eaton

View the discussion thread.

17 comments

Sun, 2011-03-27 16:26 — matthew fox (not verified)

@Sam

I think you miss the point Sam, this is Osborne's second budget, his first budget alleged erased the deficit, this one increases borrowings because of slowing economic growth, increased unemployment.

Are you telling me that the UK economy which grew 1.1% in Q2 and ground to a halt in Q4 is Alistair Darling fault as well.

Will you tell all those extra people who are going to lose there jobs this year to blame Alistair Darling as well.

Sun, 2011-03-27 22:59 — Sam (not verified)

Where have I said it's Darling's fault? I'm saying that the current economic conditions would have been the same under Darling's plan.

The only difference is that maybe the virtually useless crediting rating agencies would be closer to downgrading our credit rating.

Fri, 2011-03-25 15:13 — Guy Debored (not verified)

Following the extrapolated trends, the blame lines will converge by June. Or earlier depending on outcomes in May.*

*shut your yap, trolls - this is by no means scientific.

Fri, 2011-03-25 15:28 — Freeman2

'... 26 per cent blame both (surely the most sensible answer).'

Thank you for that as it is the answer I gave when YouGov asked my opinion. And they credited me with 50p as well.

Sat, 2011-03-26 16:34 — Sam (not verified)

Perhaps we should ask all the people who say they were against the cuts to put forward a better economic plan that will save jobs, increase growth and not lose our credit rating.

The fact that the average person has £17,000 worth of personal debt (excluding mortgage) shows how likely they would succeed in giving us a better plan.

If we had a minarchist state and abolished the central bank we wouldn't have to put up with politicians wrecking the economy, and central bankers like David Blanchflower constantly voting for higher interest rates when there was clearly a housing and credit boom.

Sat, 2011-03-26 16:37 — Sam (not verified)

Matthew Fox - If borrowing is up £50 billion over the next five years then that means the coalition's economic plan is less severe than Alistair Darling's. Maybe you're in denial and blaming the Tories for things that would have been exactly the same under Labour?

Fri, 2011-03-25 16:37 — Graeme (not verified)

The government with no mandate is cutting our services and attacking our income, especially the poorest and the most vulnerable. And they are driving our economy into ruin. So, it is hard to conclude otherwise that the Tories and the LibDems are the ones to blame. It will take generation for them to be recover from the toxic damage they are doing.

Fri, 2011-03-25 17:38 — mittfh

So YouGov still haven't got around to adding "The Financial Services Industry" or "City Bankers" to their list of scapegoats. Chances are the results would look slightly different if those were valid options...

Fri, 2011-03-25 18:49 — Scotty

The most left wing right wing goivernment that this country has ever had is dong what need to be done - time is the test and the pain will be worth it in the end - as long as labour dont then get back in and destroy our economy again.

Fri, 2011-03-25 19:08 — ang (not verified)

While the Labour party were immersed in electing a new leader, the conservatives were busy bad-mouthing Labour and because the mainstream media swallowed the Tory line, the general public were well and truly sold!
Sad, but true.

Fri, 2011-04-01 18:35 — ruth (not verified)

Coalition plans to create a "flexible " ie cowed workforce by privatising and outsourcing jobs will put billions in the pockets of private agencies, cost the tax payer dear and cause misery for millions of workers.
Shame on this corrupt government,Both they and their greedy cronies- waiting to profit out of public services and shame on their rotten ideology. The anger at the injustice of their policieabove all the cynical privatisation of the NHS will make the TUC dem of 26th march seem inconsequential. I hope there are more and bigger protests and I will go on each and every one until the tories and their opportunist libdem collaborators are removed from being in charge of anything more than a lavatory.

Fri, 2011-03-25 19:29 — mike (not verified)

Labour are in complete denial - it as pretty clear in 2005 that the money created was paper only and had no substance. As usual people also are in denial and think it can be spread over a longer period. The organistaions we owe the money do are the ones that dictate thus labour are just as usual trying trying to appeal to the baser opinions of the electorate. It was'nt only the bankers it was all the others who thought that they could get money on the cheap while it lasted and are now too embarassed to own up.

Fri, 2011-03-25 20:01 — matthew fox (not verified)

The only people in denial are the Conservative movement.

Borrowing up by 50 Billion over the next five years, 130,000 extra on the scraphea, Government revenues down, record fuel prices and all we get is BLAME LABOUR.

Sad isn't it.

Fri, 2011-03-25 20:33 — elrob

mike
Labour are in complete denial
---------
The country is in denial. Just look at house prices, asking prices. Most of these people believe 2003-07 was no bubble. They do not ant to see the truth. Labour definitely takes some of the blame, but all? P-lease.

Line up all of you: Those taking out liar loans, the economist profession, which claimed that yes, neoliberalism and all that Smith nonsense about rational economic actors (you, me Dupree and the bankers) needing no regulation; the politicians who also believed it: include Labour and Tory - anyone remember Gideon calling for regulation? or Cameron for paying down govt debt in 2005-07? The BoE for keeping interest rates so low so long especially in 2005 when a correction seemed to be about to appear, and then not cutting in 2008 as Lehmann's approached - although it was probably too late by then; the shadow banking industry, a compliant financial press, almost all of which failed to warn of the impending abyss.

Oh but if you prefer the simplicity of saying Labour, as the government does nothing to address the failures of the system, and instead pretend the whole problem is merely the consequences - a budget deficit, then you go ahead.

There there...

Fri, 2011-03-25 22:59 — Rob Marchant (not verified)

It's ok to march. But we have to bear in mind that Labour demonstrating against the cuts when we are not only seen as to blame for them, but are also proposing cuts ourselves, results in a logical disconnect in our position. Argument in detail at Labour Uncut.

Sat, 2011-03-26 04:41 — mike (not verified)

A ComRes/ ITV News poll shows that two thirds of the public feel that the Government should reconsider its cuts programme

Following Chancellor George Osborne’s Budget statement earlier this week, the latest Cuts Index conducted by ComRes and to be broadcast on ITV News at Ten, shows that two thirds (64%) of the public agree that the Government should reconsider its planned spending cuts programme. Just one in five (20%) disagree.

Since the Cuts Index began, the number of people who agree that the coalition Government is cutting public spending too much and too quickly has risen from 45% last October to 58% this week.

Moreover, nearly three quarters of the public (71%) think that Chancellor George Osborne should have done more to help tackle rising fuel prices. 16% disagree and 13% don’t know.

Asked if Osborne was right to describe Wednesday’s Budget as a ‘Budget for growth’, only one in four (26%) agree. Nearly half disagree (44%) with 31% of people unsure. 44% of people believe that the state of the UK economy will get worse in the coming months, while 34% believe there will be no change following the budget statement.

Finally, more than half of the population (51%) thinks that their personal financial situation will worsen over the next six months. Just 22% are optimistic that it will improve.

Sat, 2011-03-26 09:35 — Arthur Williamson (not verified)

It's all very conducting these polls, but as for those who took part in the poll, why don't the pollsters ask the additional question "who did you vote for in the last election and why?"

At the end of the day, any government is only as good as the people who vote for them, but I strongly believe any research carried out would reveal that most people are not interested in politics, in other words, most people don't know what they are voting for at an election. Frightening isn't it.