The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Are we witnessing a Lib Dem revival?

New ICM poll puts the party on 18 per cent, their highest rating since September.

By George Eaton Published 22 February 2011 11:29

Latest poll (ICM/Guardian): Labour majority of 20 seats (uniform swing)

It's just one poll, but the latest monthly ICM/Guardian survey will cheer the Lib Dems up this morning. It puts Nick Clegg's party up 3 points to 18 per cent, their highest rating in any survey since September.

ICM has persistently shown higher Liberal Democrat ratings than other pollsters, although it's notable that the Lib Dems' share of the vote has also increased in recent YouGov surveys.

At one point it looked as if Chris Huhne's prediction that support for his party would fall to 5 per cent would come true (a YouGov poll published on 7 January put the Lib Dems on just 7 per cent) but six of the last eight YouGov polls have put them on 10 per cent and today's has them on 11 per cent.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

Labour majority of 76 (uniform swing)

To be sure, this remains a disastrously low poll rating: a drop of 14 points since the election and of 24 points since "Cleggmania". But it's still worth asking the question: is the worst over for the Lib Dems? Some of the anger over tuition fees has dissipated and, as payments are made retrospectively, the party won't necessarily suffer when fees of £9,000 arrive in 2012.

It's also possible that some Lib Dems have returned to the fold as the anti-cuts backlash has begun to reduce Conservative support. As I noted last week, the Tories' "human shields" are no longer protecting them from public discontent.

It remains safe to assume that the Lib Dems will lose both votes and seats at the next election: the fees bill was Clegg's Iraq moment, a profound breach of trust for which the party will pay dearly. But for the first time in months, Lib Dem supporters have some grounds for optimism.

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Tags: Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg Politics News Polls Guide

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View the discussion thread.

34 comments

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:42 — Chris Jenkinson (not verified)

If it is Clegg's Iraq moment please could you tell us all how it was illegal or led to the deaths of millions of innocent countryment? Are we under potentially under attack with NBCs in 45 minutes? This is the worst kind of hyperbole.

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:09 — Mike S (not verified)

'BBC's anti-coalition commentary' You must be joking. Nick Robinson does a better job than Number 10's press office and is ably supported by the rest of BBC management. Not sure what programmes you listen to/watch.

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:29 — Dave C (not verified)

Based on the ICM figures, the BBC seat calculator gives a Labour majority of 62 seats.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:37 — damianneum

Hi Dave, just for the record, my figures are based on the swing calculator on UK Polling Report

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:48 — frances smith (not verified)

i think it depends where the growing lib dem support is coming from, if its tories moving to the lib dems, then it is something more interesting.

but its a little early yet for predicting trends

Wed, 2011-02-23 15:41 — Marty (not verified)

I think Nick Clegg and his Liberal Democrats are doing a good job in very difficult times. I do not agree with everything they do but it is grown-up politics and the challanges they face with the economy and the way they are dealing with has impressed me.

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:54 — hugh markey (not verified)

'When you see your enemy making a mistake don't stop him' is good advice. Why do you think the COAL guvern'rs keep asking Ed to comment with the school-yard taunt - 'Well, what would you do?' And keeping up this cheerleader chant in close harmony - the Tudor media!
Only 'events, Dear Boys and Girls' will shake these zombies out of this Blue NIghtmare masquerading as an anti-deficit dream with direct tax rewards for those holding 'loyalty cards' in their grubby greedy hands. The British electorate are naturally conservative.
Atlee's government gifted them the commanding heights of the British economy and they moaned about 'ration books', preferring rationing by price. Not to mentionn the 'Empire Loyalists'. Atlee talked the Americans out of 'escalating' the Korean War to nuclear and beyond when U Sr conventional forces with at least sixteen allies including the Turks, couldn't hack it. What can you do? Leave it to Old Father Time!

Yawning Man

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:55 — frances smith (not verified)

i remember reading about a poll recently, in the telegraph, that said that if cameron fell under a bus most conservative voters would prefer him to be replaced by nick clegg than by a tory.

maybe the growing lib dem vote is reflecting this preference.

Tue, 2011-02-22 13:02 — Dave C (not verified)

Hi George,

We'll let UK Polling Report and the BBC fight it out on their methods. Either way, it suggests a Labour government with a working majority, more than Cameron achieved.

Tue, 2011-02-22 13:55 — swatantra

You might as well ask: 'Do turkeys vote for Xmas?'

Tue, 2011-02-22 14:08 — Larry (not verified)

Great news. This could facilitate a future Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition, in which the Lib Dems could temper the Labour's morbidly authoritaian instincts. At the moment they're serving well to dilute the rawness of the Tories.

Tue, 2011-02-22 14:14 — mike cobley (not verified)

What dilution? What moderation? Does it come down to the difference between being spat in the face 5 days a week instead of every day of the week? Ah, so that's the Libdems' function...

Tue, 2011-02-22 15:18 — Reginald-Fah-fah

Jolly good show! Who going to support the limp Lib-Dems?

For entertainment purposes, these polls give me a good old laugh! Next week, EDL will overtake the limp Lib-Dems!

Tue, 2011-02-22 16:00 — Liberal Martin (not verified)

Why safe to assume that LibDems will lose seats? Firstly, the next election is over four years away and the polls have been pretty volatile for a number of years. Secondly, if the AV referendum is won then they should get an increase in seats.

I think it's safe to assume that their share of the vote will go down, but their share of the vote hasn't meant much in terms of seats anyway. In 2010 they increased their share of the vote and lost seats. In 1997 the opposite happened.

Tue, 2011-02-22 16:18 — Sam (not verified)

I think the NHS reforms could be what decides the next election. The coalition's reforms are along the lines of what Beveridge intended, and they are a vision of welfare state that has been dead since the demise of the Liberal Party. This vision of the welfare state is much needed given that Labour has never had a challenger to the centralised welfare state that it promotes, but the public have never got value for money out of centalised public services, nor high quality services.

The only problem is that this vision is now seen as right-wing because the Tories are the ones who are promoting it, but if the reforms are a success then hopefully the country will turn away from social democracy and embrace liberalism again.

Tue, 2011-02-22 16:54 — Union Steve

Mr Pledge will will never be trusted by anyone with a progresive bone in their body.

Tue, 2011-02-22 17:44 — Sam (not verified)

Union Steve - the poorest graduates will pay less under the new system than they previously did. Is that not progressive enough for you?

Tue, 2011-02-22 18:38 — mcquade

It's a cruel trick being played on them by the pollsters, egt their hopes up before they get a good kicking.

Tue, 2011-02-22 18:40 — mcquade

Has Chris Jenkins never heard of a metaphor? D'oh!

Fri, 2011-02-25 00:13 — manningtreeimp

Stuart Eels

I think you mean myopic...seeing as I did not refer to the last administrations policy with Lybia,and thus you do not know my opinion of it I really don't know what point you are trying to make.

Do you think Cameron touring the Middle East with arms dealers during a time when the whole region is at it's most unstable for decades isn't stupid ? I do...

You enjoy you day as well.

Tue, 2011-02-22 18:48 — mcquade

"At the moment they're serving well to dilute the rawness of the Tories."

This is the most rabidly right-wing government of the past century. Whereabouts in cloud cuckoo land does Larry live? In the part where even the cuckoos don't venture, no doubt.

Don't forget the poll is for The Guardian which got its recommendations disastrously wrong before the election and still won't fess up.

Tue, 2011-02-22 18:52 — mcquade

"The coalition's reforms are along the lines of what Beveridge intended"

The biggest rewriting of history I've ever read. Who's Sam to trying to fool? The cuckoos that live in Larry Land?

Tue, 2011-02-22 20:15 — ang (not verified)

Hung parliament. Lab-Lib coalition. On one condition. Clegg resigns.
Tories are history. They are too inexperienced and have an arrogant toff for a leader, who thinks that making televised speeches as often as possible, will make him respectable. He's a joke, let's face it.

Tue, 2011-02-22 20:16 — Larry (not verified)

Terminating Labour's repugnant control orders which were a manifestation of deeper authoritarianism. Scarcely right wing. Ken Clarke's rehabilitation revolution. Liberal. The end of child detention centres. Liberal. Certainly there is much to despise from the Tory-led government, namely tuition fees and the abolition of EMA, but the Tories alone would ravage the economy into plutocratic destitution. The Lib Dems are a bulwark against this. Similarly, in a future Labour-Liberal coalition, the Lib Dems will temper the disgusting authoritarianism and war-lust of Labour.

Tue, 2011-02-22 21:19 — matthew fox (not verified)

With tax rises, more cuts and a downturn Lib Dems will be cannon-fodder.

I can't see public-sector workers, the elderly, the young really be in a forgiving mood to Clegg and Huhne.

Tue, 2011-02-22 21:25 — matthew fox (not verified)

@ Larry

War Lust, Kosovo, Bosnia and Sierra Leone do you remember these theatres of conflict.

Blair stood up to Milosevic and without his intervention, the Kosovo people would have been wiped off the face of the earth.

Tue, 2011-02-22 21:28 — Reginald-Fah-fah

Tories are here forever! We have the greatest Prime Minister in British Political History. David Cameron best Prime Minster!

I agree, we need to let Clegg resign and Osborne is upsetting to many people!

Lets hear it for our Greatest Prime Minister David Cameron!!!!

Tue, 2011-02-22 23:11 — manningtreeimp

David Cameron...off flogging arms in the Middle East because "even democracies need to defend themselves"..what a chump.

Thu, 2011-02-24 11:56 — Reginald-Fah-fah

Watch this space...Prime Minister David Cameron will have the biggest slice of the cake above! He will think it's his birthday and christmas at once!

Tory power!!!!!

Wed, 2011-02-23 01:09 — Jan Cosgrove

LibDems as bulwark against the Tories? Look, the only reason the Tories are able to implement a single one of the regressive policies is because Clegg joined them in coalition, one they sprung after the election without having put their joint manifesto to us. People won't forget. It's Tories defecting to LD and LD to Labour. The Tories need to be reduced to the grubby anachronistic right-wing rump they really are. Now if it were Social Democrat v Liberal two-party we might get somewhere. 2 progressive parties vying for votes. But the LDs need to dump their orange revolution, Labour needs to deepen its shade of pink. All we have now is coup-by-coalition.

Wed, 2011-02-23 01:50 — Chris (not verified)

F*cking hope not, those back sliding bastard libdems deserve a pounding at the ballot box.

Wed, 2011-02-23 09:45 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

manningtreeimp

What a myoptic view of the world you have, was it not the great Leader who twisted the arm of the Scottish Government to free the biggest murderer in Britain to the great Leader of the Arab world who is currently bombing his own people?

If we can stop the Tories showing such stupidity we might make the world a better place, enjoy your day.

Mon, 2011-03-21 22:49 — Drew(Sydney) (not verified)

The Lib Dems are Middle Class wankers who have sold out the Left in their ugly coalition with the Conservative side of politics.

VOTE 1 LABOUR

GO ED!!!!!

Tue, 2011-02-22 12:02 — Marcus (not verified)

Labour should be way ahead here, but they are not. My tip would be for Ed to keep his mouth shut for the next three years and see how it goes.

Its the only way they will win. If they only have +3 over the Tories now, with all the bad news and the BBC/C4's anti-coalition commentary kicking them at every opportunity then they stand no chance in 4 years time when they'll have some brighter news for the electorate.

Labour should be extremely worried by this.