Ken takes the lead over Boris

New poll puts Livingstone ahead of Johnson in London mayoral race by 45 per cent to 43.

Don't bet against Red Ken returning to City Hall in 2012. The latest YouGov poll on the London mayoral race puts the Labour candidate ahead of Boris on first preferences by 45 per cent to 43. By contrast, an earlier poll published in October showed Boris ahead by 46 per cent to 44.

The significant support for Livingstone suggests that his age (he will turn 67 in June 2012) and his political baggage aren't necessarily barriers to his re-election. There are still other candidates to come, not least from the Greens and the Lib Dems, who could cut into Ken's vote, but this poll will reassure Labour that it made the right choice.

As on previous occasions, the result is almost certain to be determined by second-preference votes. Asked who they would rather have as mayor – a question that aims to reflect second preferences – voters still favour Boris by 45 per cent to 42, although his lead has narrowed from 5 points in October.

In the coming months we can expect Boris to do even more to try to differentiate himself from Cameron and Osborne. As I noted last week, growing opposition to the speed and scale of the coalition's cuts means Labour's poll lead has widened from 3-5 points to 7-9 points. Boris's challenge is to achieve what Ken could not and prove that national unpopularity is no barrier to local success.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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If Seumas Milne leaves Jeremy Corbyn, he'll do it on his own terms

The Corbynista comms chief has been keeping a diary. 

It’s been a departure long rumoured: Seumas Milne to leave post as Jeremy Corbyn’s director of communications and strategy to return to the Guardian.

With his loan deal set to expire on 20 October, speculation is mounting that he will quit the leader’s office. 

Although Milne is a key part of the set-up – at times of crisis, Corbyn likes to surround himself with long-time associates, of whom Milne is one – he has enemies within the inner circle as well. As I wrote at the start of the coup, there is a feeling among Corbyn’s allies in the trade unions and Momentum that the leader’s offfice “fucked the first year and had to be rescued”, with Milne taking much of the blame. 

Senior figures in Momentum are keen for him to be replaced, while the TSSA, whose general secretary, Manuel Cortes, is one of Corbyn’s most reliable allies, is said to be keen for their man Sam Tarry to take post in the leader’s office on a semi-permanent basis. (Tarry won the respect of many generally hostile journalists when he served as campaign chief on the Corbyn re-election bid.) There have already been personnel changes at the behest of Corbyn-allied trade unions, with a designated speechwriter being brought in.

But Milne has seen off the attempt to remove him, with one source saying his critics had been “outplayed, again” and that any new hires will be designed to bolster, rather than replace Milne as comms chief. 

Milne, however, has found the last year a trial. I am reliably informed that he has been keeping a diary and is keen for the full story of the year to come out. With his place secure, he could leave “with his head held high”, rather than being forced out by his enemies and made a scapegoat for failures elsewhere, as friends fear he has been. The contents of the diary would also allow him to return in triumph to The Guardian rather than slinking back. 

So whether he decides to remain in the Corbyn camp or walk away, the Milne effect on Team Corbyn is set to endure.

 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.