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Cameron’s hopeless case against AV

A point-by-point rebuttal of the Tory leader’s speech against electoral reform.

David Cameron's speech against electoral reform performed a valuable service by highlighting how weak the arguments against AV (and for FPTP) are. Here's my point-by-point rebuttal.

1. AV is disproportional

The evidence shows that AV would have produced even larger Labour landslides between 1997 and 2005 . . . and larger Conservative ones in the 1980s.

Cameron is right. In a landslide situation, such as 1983 or 1997, AV does increase the winning party's majority as second-preference votes tend to follow first-preference votes. A fully proportional system is more desirable. But this is not as strong an argument against AV as some opponents suggest.

The system is designed to ensure that the government elected has the broad support of the majority of the population. Labour would have won more seats in 1997, 2001 and 2005, as Lib Dem voters preferred them to the Tories. Unlike under first-past-the-post (FPTP), it is not possible for a government with minority support to win a large majority.

In any case, the logical conclusion of Cameron's argument is to support proportional representation, not FPTP.

2. AV is too complex

I don't think we should replace a system that everyone gets with one that's only understood by a handful of elites.

How stupid does he think the electorate is? The fact is, millions of people already use the system. AV is commonly used for internal elections in businesses and trade unions, for most student union elections, for many American mayoral and district elections, and for Labour and Lib Dem leadership elections. In practice, no one has ever complained that the system is too complex.

3. AV means that some people get two votes

[I]f you vote for a fringe party [that] gets knocked out, your other preferences will be counted. In other words, you get another bite of the cherry.

What's wrong with taking second preferences into account? Cameron uses the example of the "BNP or Monster Raving Loony Party" voter who gets "another bite of the cherry". But what about the Tory supporter who wants to vote for their party in a Labour-Lib Dem marginal? Under AV, they can vote for the Conservatives without fear of enabling a Labour victory (by putting the Lib Dems as their second preference). But FPTP means they must either take this risk or hold their nose and vote for the lesser evil. AV would dramatically reduce the need for the depressing act of tactical voting.

4. Only three countries use it

Only three countries use AV for national elections: Fiji, Australia and Papua New Guinea.

But this fact has no bearing on the intrinsic value of the system. As John Rentoul has argued, this is "akin to saying that we shouldn't have an NHS because other countries don't".

5. AV means more hung parliaments

Hung parliaments could become commonplace.

Having complained that AV will lead to more disproportional outcomes, Cameron now warns that it will lead to more hung parliaments. He can't have it both ways. But that glaring inconsistency aside, he's wrong about hung parliaments. Australia uses AV and has returned one hung parliament in 38 elections. Conversely, FPTP in Britain delivered hung parliaments last year, in 1974, in 1923 and 1929 and twice in 1910.

Ultimately, whether or not AV results in a hung parliament (or a one-party majority of 200+) depends on the will of the voters. It's called democracy. Is Cameron opposed to this?

Tags: David Cameron  Electoral Reform

46 comments

Duncan's picture

Lots of people want proportional representation, but the campaign has been running since 1884 with no sign of success. The chances of a government elected by FPTP introducing PR for Westminster are about nil for the next 127 years. So we need to take a first step which makes it easier eventually.

Mango's picture

The whole thing is just a distraction by the political and media class to make everyone think it's particularly important which bunch of careerist politicians are employed to sell the corporate agenda to the public. The ongoing programme of war and the destruction of welfare and civil liberties will continue to accelerate just as it has since Thatcher.

Livers's picture

I can accept that it is too complicated for Call me Dave.

Chris Yapp's picture

I would vote for proportional representation. As that's not on offer, I feel there is a dilemma. Do I vote no to AV because I don't think the electorate will take two changes to the voting system or yes because it's marginally better that FPTP

StevenH's picture

@Lou: You say that you only want to vote on one candidate. The majority of people would have a second and possibly a third or more favoured candidates. By expressing preferences you can actually better block the BNP by casting your second preference vote for one of the other front-runner candidates. I suspect that under AV the number of first preference votes for smaller parties will go up, because supporting a weaker party isn't a wasted vote: your vote is transferred to your next least-worst candidate when your first choice is knocked out.
In my constituency at the last election, I voted for the LibDems having believed their leaflet that it was a two-horse race between them and the Tories (boundary changes meant no one could really say). Under AV I could have made my second preference vote for Labour and when the LibDem came third (as he did, surprise surprise), the Labour candidate may have picked up more second preference votes than the Tory.
Wouldn't the effect of AV on the BNP be similar to the French Presidential elections in 2002? Le Pen shocked everyone and went through to the second round of the election, only for Chirac to pick up a massive majority of (effectively second preference) votes in the second round from the vast majority of voters who would never vote for an extreme right-wing party. The main difference being that we don't get to find out the top two candidates in advance of placing our second and further preference votes.

Clem the Gem's picture

The great cull of 50 seats means that all who oppose the Tories need to get a Yes victory, simply to cancel this out. Nice to see the Ham-Faced Spam Robot spouting tosh again...
http://clemthegem.wordpress.com

Katherine's picture

I am still open-minded about AV but an argument I find appealing is the idea that it will reinvigorate British democracy. At a time when people are generally very cynical about politics, knowing our MPs have had to achieve over 50% of support in their constituencies and making them engage more to achieve that 50% may contribute to a renewed faith in politics as an agent of change. I am sceptical that it will dramatically reduce tactical voting. I can think of many situations where I would still feel under pressure to vote tactically. Also, I still have reservations about a more proportional system such as AMS, AV+, STV or even pure PR. Coalitions become more likely and, as we have seen in the UK, under coalitions the power of the electorate to choose a manifesto which is then enacted (we hope) is tranferred to the few individuals who draw up the coalition agreement. No one votes for a coalition agreement... Can anyone defend PR against this point?

matthew fox's picture

@ Livers

I prefer " You Can Call Me Al "

Heresiarch's picture

"Unlike under first-past-the-post [FPTP], it is not possible for a government with minority support to win a large majority."

Presumably you disagree with the findings that Labour would have had an even larger majority in 2005 than they actually received? Or perhaps you don't think Blair's 35% share constituted "minority support"? Or that 70+ seats is a "large majority"? Otherwise, this statement makes no sense.

Lou's picture

Two thick questions re AV please....

Will AV favour parties like the BNP or EDL in certain areas?

Under AV, am I obliged to make second, third, fourth etc preferences or can I just make one preference?

I ask because last election there was one party out of five I would have put my X in the box on, the other four I would never choose politically in a million years. In the same scenario unde AV I don't want to give the Tories, LDs, BNP or Monster raving party a vote full stop but having to mark a preferential order means they would get a vote from me should the votes be carried to a second preference count.

ellieban's picture

To the tune of "she'll be coming round the mountain" (sort of):

Macedonia, Albania and Ukraine
Heard the call of democracy so they came
They thought the oldest was the best,
But they found it failed the test
So they ditched First Past The Post and tried again

Australia, Papua New Guinea and Fiji
All seem to be quite happy with AV
It may not be the ultimate
But right now it's all you're gonna get
And if it's good enough for Fiji then it's good enough for me

So when the "no" campaigners fall back on those three again
Remember the others that they forgot to declaim
For if only three use AV
Then that's more than kept FPTP
Don't forget Macedonia, Albania and Ukraine.

Lou's picture

Thank you George. I thought I could but decided to ask for confirmation.

I was going to vote against AV on the strength that it might benefit the BNP. I live in a small town where the likes of the EDL and BNP are gaining more support (currently there are no candidates for the former but you never know) and the thought that my vote along with the first preference of their supporters, might potentially put them in power is the only thing that stops me voting yes for AV

ellieban's picture

Lou,

No, you are not obliged to rate every candidate. If you wish to treat it like FPTP and put 1 in 1 box only, you can.

Lou's picture

Thanks ellieban too.

Sam Holden's picture

"Australia uses AV and has returned one hung parliament in 38 elections"

You may have forgotten that there's a Liberal Coalition already in place, so Australia is a de facto two party state and has a coalition government every time the Liberals "win".

It would be the same here if either Labour or the Conservatives went into formal coalition with the LDs.

Extranea's picture

The no campaign is full of holes, dishonesty and patronising language towards the electorate. I still can't believe that they are ing the argument of the system being "too complicated"!
http://bit.ly/gjasJI

We should hold these MP's to account who support this unsupportable system of FPTP. I am still waiting for my response from Dawn Primorolo MP http://bit.ly/dH9IBC

Andy K's picture

Brilliant post, you answered some points I haven't in my post. But anyone who stands against AV should be made to explain it and give real reasons, party politics and tactical voting is not a reason! This is about democracy as a principle, yes we wanted PR but we are getting AV - it is better and far more representative than FPTP which is just flawed with the rise of third parties, there is no way a 2 party electoral system can continue to work.

I've outlined more points in my post at http://andykinsey.me

Paul's picture

Steven H, that is precisely the reason why AV is undemocratic. The BNP has as much right to representation in parliament as any other legal party and to say we should choose an electoral system specifically and only to deny that party representation is profoundly illiberal and undemocratic.

An electoral system should be chosen on the basis of what is the most fair to ALL parties.

Robert W's picture

Paradoxically Paul Guy has just made the case for AV. Given five puddings and cheese and biscuits people would choose one pudding and put cheese and biscuits second as a compromise. On first past the post one pudding (say lemon sponge) would win on very few votes and all those who hated lemon sponge would have to settle for it. Perhaps cheese and biscuits is fairer.
On another issue it seems that, under AV, if you are interested in a fringe party you will have to put it at 1 because if you make it your second choice that choice will be wasted since the party will have been ejected on an earlier round. Could this favour fringe parties ?

Mark Edwards's picture

A vote for AV means the Liberals will constantly be part of government. Who the hell (apart from Liberals) wants to see that?

No, I think you’ll find that public hostility to the Liberals will see a resounding “No” vote. Remember, this is what they sold their souls for – don’t let them get what they want. Anything that hurts the Liberals is by definition a good thing.

Mike's picture

Under AV, the 'X in one box only' will still count as it will be a clear indication of preference.

In other words, if you only want to vote for 1 party anyway, you might as well vote yes to AV and carry on as normal while still enabling other people to have a vote that counts.

The no campaign appears to be entirely incompetent. It's adverts are silly (the equivalent of 'this baby needs a hospital, therefore lets not have any trains, schools or an army) and their spokesmen are dire.

It's also clear that Call me Dave isn't really interested, and I suspect he actually quite likes the idea of AV, especially after tactical voting destroyed the Tories in the Oldham by-election.

The real reason that hung parliaments are going to happen more often under any system is that we are no longer a 2 party state. We have 5 parties (Con,Lab,Lib,Grn,UKIP) with representation in the EU parliament and over 40% vote for a party that isn't one of the big 2.

Given I will never vote Lab or Con, I don't see why a hung parliament where greens or lib dems get to influence policy is a bad thing.

If 1997 had been a hung parliament with a few more libs and greens, we might've seen proper progress on an elected lords, gay marriage, maybe the Iraq war would've even been stopped.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

NO TO AV!!!I'm a die-hard Tory and would not like to put a number next the Labour member, nor a Lib Dems.

My good friend William Hague send me an e-mail asking for my support to say NO to AV!

barbie's picture

I, like many, don't know what to do. I do know who and what I like voting for, and it's none of the main three. I shall have two parties I'll vote for, and take my chances. However, we have been, again, denied a democratic referendum on all systems available for voting. The one I favour PR is not on the list, why? Who are politicians to decide what system we can have? Where is our democracy, where is our freedom to choose? Why do we quietly accept what we're told we can have? There is no democracy here in England, and there's no mettle to fight for it either.

Katherine's picture

To Mark Edwards: AV would not mean the LibDems were constantly part of government. As pointed out in the article, the majorities in 1983 and 1997 would have been even more resounding under AV. Also, AV would not have changed the governing party in any election since 1983 (see Clegg's speech). I share your concern that a ranking system biases politics towards the middle-ground but in constituencies where any particular view fails to win 50% support perhaps that is appropriate...

To Reginald-Fah-fah: Under AV you would not have to put a number next to a Labour or LibDem - if you prefer you could put a number 1 next to a Tory and leave it at that (ie. treat it like FPTP).

Katherine's picture

Re my last comment - slight amendment - the resulting government in 2010 may have been different under AV. It could have been a Lab-Lib coalition instead of a Con-Lib coalition.

Simon Gardner's picture

I'm intending to do a US-style 'write-in vote' for STV on my May 6 ballot. The supposed "choices" we are being given are no proper choice and a politicians' shabby fix.

Simon Gardner's picture

I remind Labourites of the Labour manifesto betrayal of 1997 when it solemnly promised it was “committed to a referendum on [a proportional alternative to] the voting system for the House of Commons”.

Dave C's picture

Simon Gardner,
The actual wording appears to have been:

"We are committed to a referendum on the voting system for the House of Commons. An independent commission on voting systems will be appointed early to recommend a proportional alternative to the first-past-the-post system."

http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1997/1997-labour-manifesto.shtml (unofficial site)

Blair did the second, but 'forgot' to the first. Another reason I despise him.

Clem the Gem's picture

Hmm, so Tories are against it, Ham-Face doesn't like it, and the (Non)Taxpayers Alliance are voting No?
Sounds like a good argument for voting yes, despite Little Nicky...
http://clemthegem.wordpress.com

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

@ Katherine

What a clear Idea! No.: 1 next to my fantastic member Mattrew Offord MP.

Putting numbers next to that lying Labour candidate and them Lib Dems parking permits nutters would not be British!

FPTP will get my Vote!

gerry's picture

Help - what is a progressive person like me meant to do?

To AV or not to AV? To back the hideous Cameron or the even more hideous Clegg?

I fear voting for AV will mean permanent shoddy Lib Dem presence in shoddy coalition government...and I fear voting against AV will mean permanent Tory/Lib Dem government.

Help!

Pozorvlak's picture

Chris Yapp, JP, Simon Gardner: as a supporter of PR, you should vote Yes to AV, shabby compromise though it is. Here's why: http://www.betternation.org/2010/12/whos-who-in-the-four-av-campaigns/ .

There's an IMHO much better argument against the nonsensical claim that "AV means that some people get two votes", which I've written up at http://pozorvlak.livejournal.com/161509.html .

Simon Gardner's picture

This is what the Electoral Reform Society USED to say about AV until recently:
* It can be less proportional than First-Past-the-Post.
* It does very little to improve the voice of traditionally under-represented groups in parliament, strengthening the dominance of the 'central' viewpoint.
* There is no transfer of power from party authority to the voters.
* It is prone to a certain amount of 'Donkey voting', where voters rank candidates randomly, not knowing enough about all of them to make an informed decision.
* Under certain circumstances, a shrewd voter can get a better result by lying. If, for example, it is known that the contest will be fought between two strong candidates, supporters of one might rank third parties above the other, even if the other is technically their second choice. See Wikipedia's worked example.
* In a broadly three-way race, where there are two strong parties who actively dislike each other and a third 'compromise' candidate sitting in between, the compromise candidate is likely to be defeated in the first round, despite the fact that they could well be the most universally acceptable option.

Dave C's picture

Simon Gardner,

Your text above has just been copied and pasted from the Conservative Action for Electoral Reform web page: http://www.conservativeelectoralreform.org/TheAltVote.htm

It's misleading to attribute it to the Electoral Reform Society.

Simon Gardner's picture

@Dave C NOT TRUE. This was the exact text that was at the ERS then which I took May 14 2010. I have a few ideas why they might have withdrawn it since. I'm guessing your Tory source copied it at sometime similar to when I did.

It is completely accurate to attribute it to what the ERS was saying - which is what I did.

JP's picture

I think we should use single transferable voting, since it would be much more proportional and give smaller parties a chance, instead of forcing you to choose between two or three larger ones.

Simon Gardner's picture

@Dave C
Try this archive AFAIK from December 31 2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071231231932/http://www.electoral-reform.or...

Simon Gardner's picture

@Dave C
Well that got mangled so try http://is.gd/h2i2BM and click December 31 2007.

Paul Guy's picture

A poll was taken using AV on the participants' favourite pudding. Of the six choices nobody placed Cheese and Biscuits first and yet after second preferences it emerged as the winner! How fair (or sensible) is that?

lil lord fauntleroy's picture

i shouldnt worry either way, after this lots 'cock ups' we will have a progressive proper government back in power anyway(sooner the better)

Eddy Anderson's picture

Good post. I don't think AV is necessarily the 'best' electoral system, but I can't see how a No vote is anything other than a vote for FPTP.

If we don't get a Yes in this referendum, electoral reform will be off the agenda for a generation.

BarryS's picture

The Electoral Reform Society used to say that the Alternative Vote was only suitable for a single position and NOT a parliament as that should reflect the nation as a whole. Conveniently, they have taken this off their webpage and you can now only see this by using the internet's wayback machine

Dave C's picture

OK, Simon, Your integrity is unimpeachable.

Adam Blane Richards's picture

George, what happens if a candidate doesn't achieve 50% after all rounds of voting have taken place?

Say, for example that each Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem candidate achieved 33% in the first round of voting but none of them achieved the remaining 17% in the second and third round of voting because the populace abstained!

I am still undecided on AV, but I do like the idea of a candidate having to obtain 50% of the electorates vote, It's not PR [which I oppose] but it is better than FPTP I feel, because it would go some way to restoring a sense of democracy and credibility that has been lost.

I just hope the populace realise that they don't HAVE to vote for more than one candidate!

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