“The Shoe Thrower’s Index”

A new index by the <em>Economist</em> gives an evidence-based insight into unrest in the Arab world.

Indexes help us to understand the world. Since 1986, the Economist has published the Big Mac Index, which reveals discrepancies in exchange rates, using the tasty medium of the price of a Big Mac. Guido Fawkes has attempted to revive the Misery Index, which measures how unhappy we are by combining the rates of inflation and unemployment (plus the deficit divided by GDP).

David Cameron wanted a more optimistic measure and so attempted to launch a Happiness Index, to much criticism.

The latest index thought up by the Economist goes beyond economics, however, and looks at the turmoil in the Middle East. Behold, The Shoe Thrower's Index:

There are few surprises. Yemen, Libya and Egypt, Syria and Iraq top the list, while small, oil-rich, pro-western states in the Gulf are near the bottom. The only misplaced presences appear to be Jordan, whose government has been rocked by recent events in the region, and Tunisia, which triggered the turmoil when a popular uprising removed President Ben Ali from power.

Here's how the Economist compiles the chart.

The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25.

The events of the past few weeks have led to a flurry of speculation, not much of it evidence-based. The Shoe Thrower's Index goes some way to remedying this – albeit in a frivolous fashion. It's not foolproof, but it is fun.

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Calm down, everyone – of course Nigel Farage is in the running for TIME Person of the Year

The former Ukip leader has been shortlisted for the iconic magazine list.

While your mole is no fan of former Ukip leader and triumphalist frog Nigel Farage, it has to scurry to his defence in this instance. There's been a big brouhaha (ie. some people on Twitter have posted a few half-hearted opinions and crap jokes) about the bonvivant Brexiteer being shortlisted for TIME's iconic Person of the Year.

He is one of 11 contenders for the position listed by the magazine, alongside the likes of Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg and Beyoncé. (What a dinner party that would be. We hope Zuck puts the photos up on Facebook.)

Why are people surprised by this? Farage is the reason the UK is leaving the European Union, and by doing so has made a big impact on national and global politics. Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin famously won the award, so we know it's not an endorsement, simply a measure of impact. And others on this year's list suggest this too: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump – all dubious political figures who have caused controversy.

So why the big deal about Farage?

Read more about TIME's shortlist here. The winner is announced tomorrow.

I'm a mole, innit.