A winning message for Miliband?

The Labour leader should pledge to scrap the VAT increase, not merely condemn it.

Like 2010, 2011 begins with Labour and the Conservatives at war over the economy. Last year it was Alistair Darling attacking the Tories' £34bn "black hole", this year it's Ed Miliband condemning tomorrow's VAT rise. The Labour leader will take to the campaign trail in Oldham East and Saddleworth (the first big electoral test of his leadership) and attack the increase as the "wrong tax, at the wrong time".

On paper, this should be an easy win for Miliband. The VAT increase is unfair (as David Cameron noted in April 2009, "it hits the poorest the hardest"), unnecessary and economically reckless. In his campaign against the rise, Miliband can also count on the support of some unfamiliar allies, including the Taxpayers' Alliance and the Daily Mail. And he can handily remind voters that it was the Lib Dems who warned of a "Tory VAT bombshell" (before joining the assault) and Cameron who insisted during the general election campaign that he had "absolutely no plans" to raise the tax.

Miliband will say: "Today we start to see the Tory-led agenda move from Downing Street to your street. At midnight VAT goes up, hitting people's living standards, small businesses and jobs. The VAT rise is the most visible example of what we mean when we say the government is going too far and too fast."

But if he's to win over the voters, he will need to rebut the charge that Labour's profligacy made the tax rise "unavoidable". Miliband should point out that the VAT increase was only required to pay for tax cuts elsewhere: £12.4bn of the £13.5bn to be raised could have been saved, had the government not cut other taxes including corporation tax, council tax, National Insurance and income tax.

As Robert Chote noted in May, while he was still director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies: "When Mr Osborne said that 'the years of debt and spending' made the £13bn increase in VAT unavoidable you might just as well say it was his desire to cut other taxes that made it so."

After this, Miliband should pledge to scrap the rise, not merely condemn it. On too many issues, from the Spending Review to tuition fees to education, Labour's attack has been blunted by the lack of a clear alternative. This mistake must not be repeated.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Quiz: Can you identify fake news?

The furore around "fake" news shows no sign of abating. Can you spot what's real and what's not?

Hillary Clinton has spoken out today to warn about the fake news epidemic sweeping the world. Clinton went as far as to say that "lives are at risk" from fake news, the day after Pope Francis compared reading fake news to eating poop. (Side note: with real news like that, who needs the fake stuff?)

The sweeping distrust in fake news has caused some confusion, however, as many are unsure about how to actually tell the reals and the fakes apart. Short from seeing whether the logo will scratch off and asking the man from the market where he got it from, how can you really identify fake news? Take our test to see whether you have all the answers.

 

 

In all seriousness, many claim that identifying fake news is a simple matter of checking the source and disbelieving anything "too good to be true". Unfortunately, however, fake news outlets post real stories too, and real news outlets often slip up and publish the fakes. Use fact-checking websites like Snopes to really get to the bottom of a story, and always do a quick Google before you share anything. 

Amelia Tait is a technology and digital culture writer at the New Statesman.