News that Tube drivers are threatening to walk out on the day of the royal wedding offers a good opportunity to examine the fate of Boris Johnson's long-promised "no-strike deal".
In his 2008 manifesto, the Mayor of London pledged:
I will look to reduce the disruption caused by strikes on the Tube by negotiating a no-strike deal, in good faith, with the Tube unions. In return for agreeing not to strike, the unions will get the security provided by having the pay negotiations conducted by an independent arbiter, whose final decision will be binding on both parties. I believe this is the fairest way to ensure that London is not brought to a stand-still every time there is a pay negotiation, and to ensure union members get a secure deal.
But since then, as the graphic below shows, Tube strikes have reached a level never seen under Ken Livingstone. Not that this should surprise anyone. There is little evidence that Boris has made any serious attempt to negotiate a no-strike deal with the trade unions. Asked in September if he had sat down with union leaders and had his "promised beer" with Bob Crow, the mayor replied: "I have not spoken directly with union leaders but with plenty of people in government."
In a memorable 2008 election leaflet, Johnson complained that "there have been 16 Tube strikes since Ken Livingstone became mayor, two for every year". But since Boris became mayor, there have been no fewer than 20, nearly seven for every year (the next scheduled strike is on Friday).
The grim conclusion is that Boris's "no-strike deal" was a shallow election pledge that he never had any intention of living up to in power.