Medical professionals warn against “extraordinarily risky” NHS reform

Coalition’s flagship Health and Social Care Bill could cause health service to shrink and jeopardise

Medical professionals have warned that the government's proposed reform of the NHS is "extraordinarily risky", ahead of the publication of the flagship bill on Wednesday.

The report, by the NHS Confederation, made up of the British Medical Association, the Faculty of Public Health and royal colleges representing general practitioners, hospital doctors and surgeons, accepts the need for reform but expresses grave concerns.

Broadly, the criticisms it levels fall into two categories – the handling of the reform, and its actual content.

On the first note, the Health Secretary, Andrew Lansley, is criticised for failing to convince patients or medical professionals of the need for reform – important given that this is the biggest restructuring of the NHS since its inception. "The absence of any compelling story about why the reforms are necessary or how they will translate into improved outcomes is of concern," it says.

The government's attacks on NHS managers also come under fire for being "unpleasant and demotivating". The plans focus on giving control of NHS budgets to GPs and cutting down on middle managers, meaning that managers will be expected to drive through reforms while also being purged.

Even more worrying, though, is the second "category" – the potentially negative consequences of the bill. The report notes that the switch to a system where GP consortiums can send patients to whoever offers them the best service will force the NHS to shrink to make space for new private health-care providers.

The government's argument is that introducing market mechanisms will improve quality of care and efficiency. The report concedes that this can be the case, but warns: "This will not happen naturally when, as in the case of the NHS, the size of the total market is not increasing. Closure of existing services will be necessary."

Lansley's policy of "price competition", which will allow hospitals to compete for patients, is also alarming. The NHS Confederation analysis shows that it could jeopardise standards of care.

The report's parting shot is that it is "extraordinarily risky" to restructure the NHS when it also has to save £20bn by 2014-2015.

Overall, the impression is of a poorly thought-through bill that could have hugely damaging results for free and equal health care. David Cameron is to give a speech tomorrow, aimed at allaying the fears of the medical profession and reassuring health professionals that the reform plans will not be rushed. We must hope that he listens to their concerns.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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