Round one to Ed Balls

Balls’s calm and assured response was exactly what Labour needed.

Ed Balls wisely resisted the temptation to boast that he had been vindicated by today's terrible growth figures. Instead, in an appearance on The World At One, he calmly offered himself as the voice of experience to an economic novice.

"I worked at the Treasury for ten years. My advice to George Osborne is: don't think up excuses about the weather, don't dig yourself into a hole," he said. Quoting Keynes, he added: "If the facts change, I change my mind. George Osborne should do that."

The shadow chancellor sensibly pointed to the fact that the deficit for 2009-2010 came in at £156.3bn (£21.7bn lower than the original Treasury forecast) as evidence that Labour's policy of "going for growth" was beginning to fill the hole in the public finances. Osborne's insistence that Labour doesn't have a "credible deficit reduction plan" ignores that, without growth, neither does he.

Elsewhere, as the Spectator's Peter Hoskin has noted, Balls refused to predict a double-dip recession. Asked if he thought one was likely, he replied: "I really hope not. I think the most likely outcome is months of stagnant growth, unless George Osborne digs himself out of this hole." The risk of a double dip is real, as the NS economics editor David Blanchflower argued this morning, but this was an act of necessary caution from Balls.

Osborne's decision to put so much emphasis on the weather in his response to the figures has already been widely ridiculed and was a clear misjudgement. As the Office for National Statistics pointed out in its briefing, if you strip out the effects of the snow, growth is still flat at 0 per cent. The Chancellor could only reply that "estimates are highly uncertain at the moment".

When asked for a "plan B", Osborne responded that he can hardly "cancel" the cuts, a caricature of his opponents' position. But he could have easily cancelled the VAT rise, which, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, will reduce GDP by 0.3 per cent alone. History may record that as his biggest misjudgement.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Richmond is a victory for hope - now let's bring change across the country

The regressives are building their armies. 

Last night a regressive alliance was toppled. Despite being backed by both Ukip and the Conservative Party, Zac Goldsmith was rejected by the voters of Richmond Park.

Make no mistake, this result will rock the Conservative party – and in particularly dent their plans for a hard and painful Brexit. They may shrug off this vote in public, but their majority is thin and their management of the post-referendum process is becoming more chaotic by the day. This is a real moment, and those of us opposing their post-truth plans must seize it.

I’m really proud of the role that the Green party played in this election. Our local parties decided to show leadership by not standing this time and urging supporters to vote instead for the candidate that stood the best chance of winning for those of us that oppose Brexit. Greens’ votes could very well be "what made the difference" in this election (we received just over 3,500 votes in 2015 and Sarah Olney’s majority is 1,872) - though we’ll never know exactly where they went. Just as importantly though, I believe that the brave decision by the local Green party fundamentally changed the tone of the election.

When I went to Richmond last weekend, I met scores of people motivated to campaign for a "progressive alliance" because they recognised that something bigger than just one by election is at stake. We made a decision to demonstrate you can do politics differently, and I think we can fairly say that was vindicated. 

There are some already attacking me for helping get one more Liberal Democrat into Parliament. Let me be very clear: the Lib Dems' role in the Coalition was appalling – propping up a Conservative government hell bent on attacking our public services and overseeing a hike in child poverty. But Labour’s record of their last time in office isn't immune from criticism either – not just because of the illegal war in Iraq but also their introduction of tuition fees, privatisation of our health service and slavish worship of the City of London. They, like the Liberal Democrats, stood at the last election on an austerity manifesto. There is a reason that we remain different parties, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn't also seize opportunities like this to unite behind what we have in common. Olney is no perfect candidate but she has pledged to fight a hard Brexit, campaign against airport expansion and push for a fair voting system – surely progressives can agree that her win takes us forward rather than backwards?

Ultimately, last night was not just defeat of a regressive alliance but a victory for hope - a victory that's sorely needed on the back of of the division, loss and insecurity that seems to have marked much of the rest of this year. The truth is that getting to this point hasn’t been an easy process – and some people, including local Green party members have had criticisms which, as a democrat, I certainly take seriously. The old politics dies hard, and a new politics is not easy to forge in the short time we have. But standing still is not an option, nor is repeating the same mistakes of the past. The regressives are building their armies and we either make our alternative work or risk the left being out of power for a generation. 

With our NHS under sustained attack, our climate change laws threatened and the increasing risk of us becoming a tax haven floating on the edge of the Atlantic, the urgent need to think differently about how we win has never been greater. 

An anti-establishment wave is washing over Britain. History teaches us that can go one of two ways. For the many people who are utterly sick of politics as usual, perhaps the idea of politicians occasionally putting aside their differences for the good of the country is likely to appeal, and might help us rebuild trust among those who feel abandoned. So it's vital that we use this moment not just to talk among ourselves about how to work together but also as another spark to start doing things differently, in every community in Britain. That means listening to people, especially those who voted for Britain to leave the EU, hearing what they’re saying and working with them to affect change. Giving people real power, not just the illusion of it.

It means looking at ways to redistribute power and money in this country like never before, and knowing that a by-election in a leafy London suburb changes nothing for the vast majority of our country.

Today let us celebrate that the government's majority is smaller, and that people have voted for a candidate who used her victory speech to say that she would "stand up for an open, tolerant, united Britain".  But tomorrow let’s get started on something far bigger - because the new politics is not just about moments it's about movements, and it will only work if nobody is left behind.

 

Caroline Lucas is the MP for Brighton Pavilion.