Murdoch eyes the prize as BSkyB profits soar

BSkyB profits up 26 per cent as Murdoch remains in London to negotiate with Culture Secretary.

As Rupert Murdoch remains in London to lead negotiations personally with Jeremy Hunt over News Corp's attempted takeover of BSkyB, here's a reminder of why he's so keen to seal the deal.

BSkyB has today announced that profits rose by 26 per cent to £467m in the last six months of 2010, with revenues up 15 per cent to £3.2bn. Sky has also now passed its target of ten million subscribers, set by James Murdoch in August 2004, when subscriber numbers were at 7.4 million. The graph I've put together below, based on data from Enders Analysis, shows what a full merger between News International and the broadcaster would mean for media plurality.

Media companies by revenue

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In revenue terms, BSkyB is already the country's largest broadcaster, with an annual income of £5.4bn, comfortably ahead of the BBC (£3.6bn). A pair-up between News International and BSkyB (Murdoch at present owns a 39 per cent stake) would produce a UK media company with revenues of £6.4bn.

As Mark Thompson argued in his impressive MacTaggart Lecture, Murdoch's bid, if successful, would lead to a "concentration of cross-media ownership" that would be unacceptable in the United States or Australia, News Corp's other two key markets. Once the deal is complete, we can expect Murdoch to bundle his newspapers with Sky subscriptions in an attempt to offset falling circulation.

As the media analyst Claire Enders has predicted, by the middle of this decade, the News Corp head could control 50 per cent of the newspaper and television markets, a concentration of ownership that would make even Silvio Berlusconi blush. Regardless of the "undertakings" Murdoch is expected to offer to Hunt, there is an unarguable case for referring the bid to the Competition Commission.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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