The Staggers

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Cameron will be punished for failure on immigration

New report shows that the coalition will struggle to reduce net migration from 200,000.

By George Eaton Published 30 December 2010 10:47

The news that immigration is unlikely to fall significantly in 2011 should set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street. An IPPR study published today suggests that net migration will remain around the 200,000 mark, far short of the government's flagship promise to reduce net migration from "the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands".

The report cites several reasons why net migration will remain high: increased economic migration from the EU (which the government cannot legally restrict) as the UK economy continues to outperform those of Spain, Portugal and Greece; increased emigration from Ireland (120,000 Irish nationals are expected to leave the republic in 2010 and 2011); higher immigration from Latvia and Lithuania (the numbers have risen from 25,000 to 40,000 a year); and lower emigration from the UK (30,000 left in the year to March 2010 compared to 130,000 in the year to March 2008).

Along with the EU, immigration is one of the issues that the Tory right wants to see significant progress on before the end of this parliament. The imperative of deficit reduction means that dissent has so far been limited. Cameron has projected himself as a quasi-war leader, even channelling Lord Kitchener in his conference speech ("Your country needs you"). Conservatives, more than most, are susceptible to such rhetoric. But expect patience to wear thin as time goes on. The Tory right, like the Lib Dem left, will begin to demand greater concessions from the coalition.

One should add that the possibility of Conservative failure on immigration represents a big political opportunity for Ukip and the far right. There is always a danger at times of high unemployment that voters will turn to populists and demagogues in search of solutions. On Twitter, the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, correctly points out: "Good report by IPPR on immigration, Cameron's cuts are meaningless. If euro collapses in 2011 expect a flood from Europe we can't control."

Cameron's decision to raise unrealistic expectations on immigration will return to haunt him.

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Tags: David Cameron Immigration

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8 comments

Thu, 2010-12-30 11:01 — swatantra

And so he should be punished.
The Market dictates labour and immigration and the price of bread, and if the Tories are trying to sell the Market as the solution to all economic problems then they know full well that the promise to reduce to thousands was never ever going to be fulfilled. Once agian the Tories have played the 'race card'.

Thu, 2010-12-30 11:41 — Hova (not verified)

And yet the idiots on the right will still be banging on about muslim immigration causing 'all the problems'. anyway, serves this idiot right for thinking that 'capping immigration' will solve all his woes.

Thu, 2010-12-30 12:07 — DK (not verified)

I hope Labour will choose to be silent on this one, and keep Ed Miliband's promise not to try to outflank the government on the right.

Thu, 2010-12-30 13:21 — mr_wonderful (not verified)

The so-called "cap on immigration" was only ever a device to use whenever the issue was raised by the right wing press or Tory supporters. The bulk of immigration cannot be stopped even if Cameron wanted to.

Thu, 2010-12-30 13:22 — lusina

Let them stew in their own juice. This is one of many promises that cannot be met. It's so easy to theorize. The truth than hits you like a brick. Wait for many more unreachable promises by the two coalition parties to blow in their faces.

Thu, 2010-12-30 16:38 — Luddite (not verified)

So how much youth unemployment is acceptable. So how much long term unemployment is acceptable. So if the discredited left have no answers, how long will it be before the violent right find the answers?

Thu, 2010-12-30 17:54 — Dan (not verified)

The cap on immigration is unrealistic when their is free movement of people across the European Union. Tories love of flexible labour markets and low wages means net migration will increase over the next five years. Thanks to Britain's poor education system despite high levels of investment by the previous Labour Government employers will favour economic migrants because they are better skilled for the modern world. Other European countries have high levels of social protection which acts as a barrier for new workers. In addition the Uk has a large black economy which attracts lots of migrants. I think Cameron should step out of the playing fields of Eton and luxury life style of the upper class and see the real world then he might realise what rubbish he is saying on immigration.