Itâs not about him â itâs what he stands for. Two thirds of Americans donât have an issue with President Obama as a person â itâs not that they really think heâs aloof, or too remote, or any of the other stuff which is supposed to be behind his fall in the polls.
Itâs just that the vast numbers of middle-of-the-road voters across the country are proving more centre-right than centre-left. Health care was one thing â but whatâs not going down well, it seems, is the Presidentâs handling of the economy â from the banking bail out to the still-rising numbers out of work.
When the economy is doing badly â history shows people tend to blame the party in power. And the latest survey show just one third of Americans think Barack Obama has been a âvery goodâ or a âgoodâ president: the rest consider him merely average, or downright âpoorâ.
Itâs useful ammunition for the GOP, of course: House minority leader John Boehner is making his first major speech of the campaign in Ohio, where heâll focus on jobs: as an aide put it â âthe November election will be a referendum on President Obama and Washington Democratsâ job killing record.â And RNC chairman Michael Steele bashed out an instant response to the jobless figures: âPresident Obama and his left wing allies on Capitol Hill have spent trillions of taxpayer dollars with nothing to show for it but a mountain of crippling debt and chronic joblessness.â
So just over three weeks before the midterms â how should the Democrats fight back? The good news for the party is that barely anyone (just 22%, apparently) â thinks Sarah Palin would make an effective president.
And key election strategist David Plouffe, whoâs back running Obamaâs âOrganising for Americaâ campaign, has insisted voters are still open to the arguments â claiming large numbers are being put off the Republicans by the success of Tea party candidates.
President Obama himself â and the First Lady, Michelle (now officially the âWorldâs Most Powerful WomanââŠwhey-heyâŠ) â are out there whipping up enthusiasm on the campaign trail. Even Joe Bidenâs been sent out on the road, campaigning for 18 candidates in 23 cities across the country â with 18 more events in his busy diary before election day.
And thereâs a decidely populist tone coming from many Democrats â a direct pitch to working families â hitting Republicans by bashing corporate America, outsourcing of jobs, and the minimum wage.
Yesterday President Obama used his veto to block a bill that sneaked through Congress last week â which critics say would have made it easier for lenders to evict people who missed their mortgage payments. There are legal moves going on in at least ten states to extend a voluntary freeze on foreclosures â with calls for a moratorium across the country.
Union officials from the AFL-CIO have put out literature in Illinois, Oregon and Minnesota, accusing Republican gubernatorial candidates of opposing an increase in the minimum wage â while highlighting other Republican candidates whoâve proposed doing away with federal minimum wage regulations altogether.
And Democrats in many districts are pushing the message that theyâre on the side of ordinary workers â a message that pollsters say has been going down well with focus groups. In at least six close-fought Senatorial contests, like California and Indiana â theyâre putting out campaign ads attacking the Republicans over their record on outsourcing â like this, from Barbara Boxer: âCarly Fiorina laid off 30,000 workers. Fiorina shipped jobs to China.â
Not that the Republicans are taking this quietly: a collection of lobbyists from big business called Club Fox Growth is splurging millions on ads in toss-up states which depict Democrats as âout of touch with the financial plight of average Americans.â Look at the level of campaign spending, in fact, and youâd be forgiven for thinking the recession never happenedâŠtelevision spending by outside interest groups, says the New York Times, has more than doubled the amount spent at this stage in the 2006 midterms.
But is any of this â from hard cash to populist ads â galvanising people to the polls, and overcoming that much-documented âenthusisasm gapâ among those voters who so optimistically swept Barack Obama into power?
The most recent survey by Pew Research at first looks alarmist â under its banner headline âLagging Youth Enthusiasm Could Hurt Democrats in 2010â. But read a little closer â and the numbers are rather more hopeful for the party. Younger voters, it says, are far more supportive of the President than any other age group. 58% of the so called âMillennialâ generation still approve of how heâs doing. Of course optimism is the preserve of the young. And three weeks isnât long to turn things around. But still â it might just be too soon to write off Obama â and those âleft wing allies on Capitol Hillâ â just yet.
Felicity Spector is chief writer and American politics expert for Channel 4 News.