The politics behind Osborne’s Spending Review
The Chancellor’s benefit cuts are designed to clear the Labour-voting poor out of London.
By George Eaton Published 21 October 2010 15:37
Like Gordon Brown before him, George Osborne is a highly political chancellor. Whenever possible, his measures are designed to meet both economic and electoral imperatives. The Chancellor's overarching project, as Benedict Brogan writes in today's Telegraph, is to construct a Tory majority between now and polling day.
Again like Brown, Osborne is also his party's chief electoral strategist and he does not share David Cameron's instinctive fondness for coalition government. He is determined to see the return of one-party Conservative rule.
The best example of Osborne's political and economic objectives working in tandem is the recently announced cap on benefits. The policy is not just a populist measure, designed to reassure the Daily Mail-reading classes, it is an act of supreme electoral engineering. The £500-a-week cap will trigger the largest population movement since the Second World War, as the poor are forced out of inner London and pushed into the suburbs, where rents are cheaper and living costs lower. The decision to charge new social housing tenants at least 80 per cent of the market rate will have a similar effect.
As a matter of social policy this is noteworthy enough, but, as I've argued before, for the Conservatives this is also a measure pregnant with political motives.
I noted then:
The Tories believe that the flight of poor, mainly Labour-voting families from inner London will allow hitherto unwinnable seats to fall into their lap. Many in the party are still aggrieved over their failure to win constituencies such as Westminster North (Joanne Cash) and Hammersmith (Shaun Bailey) – seats they felt were there for the taking.
Since I wrote those words, Conservative figures have openly acknowledged their political intentions. Bailey, the candidate defeated in west London, was recently heard to remark:
If you have a group of people that think that one government will advocate for them and one won't, of course they'll vote that way. And that's the fight for the Conservatives 'cos that's why inner-city seats are so hard to win – because Labour has filled them with poor people.
One unnamed Conservative minister was quoted as describing the policy as "the Highland Clearances" – and not unfavourably.
Conservative strategists believe that their poor performance in seats with large numbers of ethnic-minority voters and/or large concentrations of social housing was one of the main reasons they failed to win the last election. The cap on benefits is part of the party's supreme effort to overcome this defect.
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists




















20 comments
Oh dear Hans Castorp... you really are quite thick.. the £400 cap refers to Housing Benefit ONLY..
'The policy is not just a populist measure, designed to reassure the Daily Mail-reading classes'. Where do you get this bullocks from. It's not just the Daily Mail readers, it's the Daily Mirror readers also.
Benedict.. I would do further those that don't pay taxes don't vote either. No representation without taxation. Labour's, appalling and deliberate importation of a third world block vote, is one of the reasons Labour know sites in opposition.
This is Osborne's version of Robert Mugabe's Operation Murambatsvina - "Clean Out the Filth".
So how exactly is any of the above any different to Labour *maximising* housing benefit; and persuing an open door immigration policy to flood Tory boroughs with generations of Labour voters in "previously unwinnable" seats? And all under the guise of social mobility.
Robert Hanes: You are wrong on this one.
From 2013, household benefit payments will be capped on the basis of median earnings after tax for working households, which we estimate to be around £500 per week by 2013. All Disability Living Allowance claimants, War Widows, and working families claiming the working tax credit will be exempt from the cap. The cap will apply to the combined income from:
The main income replacement benefits (Jobseeker’s Allowance, Income Support, Employment Support Allowance); Other means-tested benefits (including Housing Benefit and Council Tax Benefit);
Child Benefit and Child Tax Credit;
Other benefits (including Carer’s Allowance and Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit.
The cap is not just applied to Housing Benefit at all.
Did anyone see QT last night? It was laughable how Hammond refused to be drawn on his own tax avoidance. You are right Luddite, it would be good to see people like Hammond excluded from representation. He clearly is not a man who should be advocating how people have to budget and pay 'their' way, whilst he himself uses all the usual dodges to evade paying his own dues.
Jezz, I think the clear difference is that Labour's policies were geared towards improving the living standards of the poorer in society, not driving them into abject poverty for the sake of promoting their own ideology. The Tories couldn't care less about the effect of the cuts on people as they have one objective - power and profit at any cost.
Fatuous bull. Meanmindedness in every act. They don't care for the poor, unlike us. Only for themselves. Blah blah blah. And who created the mess?
Their policy is always secondary to their self interest. Our self interest is always secondary to our policy. It is the truth, right?Because they are all bastards and we are intellectuals with standards of honesty that those bastards just can't see because they are sooooo self interested. Blah, blah, blah.
The banks created the mess. Labour rescued the economy and we now have to start repaying the cost of that bailout. Before that the economy was sound. Obv.
There is no mess. Government debt is lower than it was when the Tories last left power in 1997. The deficit is perfectly sustainable (and even necessary - see David Blanchflower) until the economy recovers.
Jane is quite right. What is more, I seem to recall that right until the eve of the banking crisis the Tories largely supported Labour's spending plans and the structural defecit was manageable. Post sub-prime crash, if the banks hadn't been bailed out we wouldn't have the defecit we've got now, but we would have a full scale depression.
With hindsight, the deregulation of the finance sector went too far and contributed to the depth of the doo doo the bankers created for themselves, but by 2008 the government weren't left with too many alternatives.
'electoral engineering' is that like allowing millions of third world immigrants into the country knowing full well 80% will vote Labour. What was Labour's slogan, To hell with community cohesion, we need there votes.. give it a rest this article is pure bollocks...
Luddite, You can only vote in General Elections id you are British or Irish. "Third world immigrants" don't have a vote.
bit bonkers if you ask me. what is the point of trying to clear the labour voting poor out of inner london in the hope of winning two seats, while creating such an economic disaster that they are likely to lose almost all of the rest.
I'm with you Francis, I see this nothing more than vandalism of society for the sake of some politcal ideology.
Brace yourself for the economic car crash.
right,left,centre - they are all the same and have left the country in a terrible mess which will be very difficult to clear. even some of the developing countries now seem a far more attractive prospect than a financially, morally and spiritually bankrupt britain.
Nick at 08.51
What Hammond said on QT last night was that he transferred shares that he owned in a private company into his Wifes ownership in anticipation of the election result as ministers are not allowed to own shares in a private company. He also confirmed that this would not avoid tax but would transfer any liability to his wife.
How exactly does a share disposal transaction that Hammond had to complete to serve in Government make him unsuited to represent the people who elected him?
What is laughable about him complying with the law?
Wow.. this is some trashy article worthy of Fox News indeed. Capping housing benefit at £500 a WEEK is going to move the POOR LABOUR VOTERS out of London? How many poor people do you know who live rented houses at over £2000 a month? Surely if any thing, it will be driving out Tory voters who have fallen on hard times.. And all this machinations to win a few London seats at the next election? Surely that's using a mallet to crack a walnut. I'm not a Tory voter, but it's obvious that they know they have no hope of winning the next election after this, so commend them at least for taking the bull by the horns and trying to sort out the countries financial problems, rather than burying their heads in the sand like America is doing.
Oh dear Robert Hanes, you are dreadfully thick. The benefit cap is for everything: food, housing, clothing, furnishings, bills, travel, whatever meagre recreation with the small change left over, for families of whatever size.
This is a perceptive article. The chancellor is seeking a version of economic "success" on his own terms, namely, a balanced budget.
If he achieves that, we will see the tories run in 2015 on a platform of a 2m inheritance tax threshold for married couples, capital gains tax rate falls, greater corporation tax allowances, a giveaway/sale of UKFI bank shares BT-style, and the restoration of welfare for the better off.
And they'll win, because they have economically gerrymandered the metropolitan centres (not just London, George!) of the UK and passed a shamefully politicised electoral reform bill to boot.
If anyone would have said in october 2008 that, two years after the wholesale failure of the global banking system whose activity brought the west within financial armagedden, we would see 7 percent year on year cuts to state services and a 0.02% - rising to 0.07% - tax on non-capital bank assets, with even the sniff of proposed regulation of the madcap banking sector kicked another year down the road, I would think there must be some sort of coup d'etat.