Lou: You are right, this is a completely different scenario.
The Lib Dems are collaborating, in a savage attack on the poor and a subsequent recession.
No one will forgive them and their only escape route is to jump ship and prevent the Tories from ruining our country.
Only then will they gain any respect.

In the past years that Sholto outlines, the L-Ds could be "all things to all men".

Now they're in government, they can't be so chameleon-like: their image has hardened.

Their popularity will rise and fall with that of the Government as a whole. However, there are two additional factors:

* People who like the Government may be more inclined to vote Tory.
* Whereas the Tories can usually say a government policy was in their manifesto, many policies are almost the exact opposite of what the Lib Dems said before the General Election. The charge of being hypocrites and turncoats will stick.

For these reasons, I think a bounce-back to former levels is unlikely.

P.S. I wonder how long it'll be before the 2010 Lib Dem manifesto mysteriously disappears from their website? Download it now while you still can.

http://network.libdems.org.uk/manifesto2010/libdem_manifesto_2010.pdf

These recoveries in popularity during the LibDems recent history happened with the party unencumbered by the burden of a record in office. It was easy to take or return to a favourable view of them because they was no abiding memory of the last time they were in power to undermine any faith in their rhetoric, policy positions and manifesto promises.

Labour might look nice in theory to a few of us on the left at the moment, in contrast to the coalition and with Ed Miliband's talk of a new social democratic direction for the party. But then we remember the vicious, despicable things this party, and these politicians, did when they were last in office.

David Cameron looked like a plausible human being, in stark contrast to his predecessors, and made lots of cuddly talk about huskies and hoodies. But people still remember what the Tories were actually like in the 80s and 90s. So despite being up against a knackered government led by a disastrous Prime Minister during the worst economic contraction in living memory, the Tories still couldn't win an election this year. They haven't won a majority for 18 years. Who knows when they'll win another?

The LibDems problem now is that there will be an equivalent folk memory for them. People will remember how Clegg and Cable's analysis of the economic situation suddenly and conveniently changed on the day after polling day. They'll remember the litany of broken promises. And they'll remember those nice LibDems supporting Osborne's vicious attack on the poorest and most vulnerable in society.

Everyone who loses their job, everyone who knows someone who's lost their job, or whose business went bust, everyone desperately reliant on benefits who got kicked in the face by this government on Wednesday, everyone who knows and cares about such people, and everyone who can see the utter misery about to be imposed on innocent people as they're forced to pay for the bankers reckless greed, will remember how the LibDems played a decisive role in making it all possible (while prattling on about "fairness" and "the new politics"). The party's reputation as a principled, progressive party is in the process of being, if you'll excuse my French, utterly shot to shit.

And if their vote does collapse, who will shed a tear outside of their dwindling membership? It would be a very healthy thing to happen to our democracy if for once a party that behaved in that way was thoroughly and soundly punished.

I agree with the other comments here. Their lies are a life-changing difference. I am very angry about the Tories but the LibDems are literally scum.

I will not write-off nor be complacent about the LibDems, I will work hard in LibDem controlled wards and constituencies to irradiate them as the cancerous growth on progressive politics they have always been.

Like Chris, I won't be complacent about the LDs, but - like others here - I find it hard to see how the LDs can continue gathering a huge number of 'protest' votes in the way that they have traditionally. They have now been fully compromised.

Sholto, the LDs have been down close to these figures more recently (Oct 2007 - 12%, Jan 2006 - 13% both with You Gov) and they still polled 23% at the GE. The problem is how YouGov do their weighting (http://bit.ly/9iJrUy). YouGov only assign them 12% weighting, so if LD are polling 10% it just means they've lost 2 points (not a lot).

Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the polls say 5 years before the next election. The LDs future will hang on the success or otherwise of the economy.

The point of no return; its all or nothing for te LIb Dems. OK they'll be ammered at the next election, but they will have done the impossible: had experience of Govt, of running Depts of State, of dealing with dufficult questions, and defined the Lib Dem dogma a little more clearly if not just for themselves. And established themselves as themselves as a credible force to be reckoned and not just a pressure group. OK theymay fall own to 30 seats but they'll be able to tell their grandchildren that they were the ones that cut their schools budget and increased their student fees and got them on their bikes looking or work. Quite an achievement. Llyod George Gladstone an David Owen would have been proud.

Bugger the Panda
22 October 2010 at 18:19
I think in Scotland they are heading the way of the Scottish Tories and will soon have in Holyrood fewer SMPs than there are breeding pairs of Ospreys, and they are a protected species. Many in England wish the Scots, would have the political courage and call that referendum on full Scottish independence, so that the English will never again suffer another Labour government.

Come on, no none biting. There's no greater cheerleader for Scottish independence then the English.

There could be a problem when women LD's realise their leadership are approving taking twice as much from their purses than from the wallets of men.

Don't worry, though. The Tories and LD's will have a non-agression pact in place come the local elections - just like they do in Birmingham. So good Conservatives will all come out and keep LD councillors in their jobs.

Lib Dems also tend to have a large amount of students/young people voting for them, who are much more likely to switch allegiances than those older people set in their ways.

Lib Dems at general elections have a habit of winning with tiny majorities because traditional supporters of other parties realise their preferred first choice can't win. Eg in a Lib-Dem/Labour marginal like Burnley, many tory supporters voted Lib Dem to get rid of Labour. In an opinion poll, however, these voters still say they are Tories.

This is a consequence of FPTP. Under a different system, the Lib Dem vote is likely to be around 15-20% with the Anti Tory vote going back to labour/swp/greens/snp/pc and the anti Labour vote staying with the LDs or going to the Tories. The Liberal Vote (and there is still a sizeable one in many places) will stay with the Liberals.

Personally I'll be voting Lib Dem again. There is still no other party that cares about things other than money. I care about freedom, human dignity and peace as much as I care about any financial issue. Many people still feel the same and will vote Lib Dem accordingly.