The Staggers

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Would a “No” on AV keep the Lib Dems in the coalition?

If the Alternative Vote system is rejected in May’s referendum, it could mean greater unity for the coalition, rather than the predicted schism.

By Caroline Crampton Published 29 October 2010 19:05

In assessing the future unity of the coalition, much of the focus has been on how the Lib Dems in particular would react to the big political events of the parliamentary term so far: the Strategic Defence Review, the Spending Review, Lord Browne's review of higher education funding, and next May's referendum on voting reform.

The assumption has been that, if under pressure from party grass roots and sour public opinion – over their previous pledge not to raise university tuition fees, for instance – in the face of reversed coalition policy, at least some Lib Dems could rebel, or even walk away from the coalition altogether.

The Alternative Vote referendum, expected to take place in May along with proposed changes to constituency boundaries, was reportedly the price Nick Clegg asked for his party's membership of the coalition, back in May.

It is an issue of paramount importance to the party at all levels, thus a "No" result would be a great blow to Lib Dems in government, prompting speculation and, in turn, denials that the party would "walk away" from the coalition if the public rejected AV. If the Tories do indeed actively campaign against reform, it would undoubtedly be a problematic situation.

But Nick Boles, the Conservative MP for Grantham and Stamford, who made a small splash a while back by writing a book calling for an electoral pact between the Tories and the Lib Dems in 2015, has now suggested in an interview that a "Yes" on AV would make the Lib Dems more likely to walk away from the coalition, while a "No" would leave them with no choice other than to stay the course. Boles said, in an interview with the website Yoosk:

If they were to win the referendum and AV were to be brought in, you could imagine a lot of Liberal Democrats saying, "Right, we got what we came for, now we'll withdraw from the coalition and make ourselves an independent voice again on the presumption that in a future election we'll do better than under first-past-the-post." So actually, if anything, they're more likely to leave if they win the referendum. If they lose the referendum, the only thing left to them is the persuade the British people that coalitions are a good thing, and to do that they have to stick with it until 2015.

This point was also made back in July by Peter Oborne (highlighted here by my colleague Jon Bernstein). Given that the Lib Dems seem, so far, to be holding on despite the storm surrounding tuition fees and spending cuts, commentators, including Boles, are agreed that the referendum will be a watershed for the coalition.

Whether a "Yes" on AV will prompt the Lib Dems to take their chances as an independent party remains to be seen. However, it is worth noting that, according to the Guardian's arithmetic at the time, had the last election been conducted under AV, the Lib Dems could have expected a further 20 seats only.

Whatever happens in May, they aren't out of coalition territory just yet.

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Tags: Coalition

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15 comments

Sun, 2010-10-31 08:07 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

If you see nothing wrong with Harriett Harman calling Danny Alexander a ginger rodent you are quite sad. If a Tory had cracked a "joke" about Brown or Mandelson when they were in power you would have formed a lynch mob!

We've never heard where Labour were going to make their near identical
cuts but we wouldn't, double standards all round folks!

I have no doubt that as time goes by and Ed Milliband works his magic, we Liberal Democrats will climb back up the polls and Labour will continue to become a minority.

Fri, 2010-10-29 19:15 — Tanino (not verified)

"You don't cut off your nose to spite your face"

Fri, 2010-10-29 19:37 — Dave C (not verified)

Regardless of the result of the AV referendum, the Lib-Dems will have little choice but to stay in the Coalition until 2015.

Their only (faint) hope is that the economy will come right in about 2014 and everyone will have forgotten the 1 million increase in unemployment from 2011 onwards.

If the Lib-Dems did pull out of the Coalition and there was a General Election, what policies would they stand on? The same policies they stood for in the May General Election? Or the policies they adopted a couple of weeks later?

If people vote for AV, the Lib-Dems still have a problem: they have little choice but to say the Coalition has been a success and that voters should give their second preference to the Tories.

Fri, 2010-10-29 20:00 — swatantra (not verified)

Yes. It's a no brainer: turkeys dont vote for xmas stuffing The Lib dems goose is truley cooked. If AV is rejected Lib Dems will invoke the voice of the people, and be resigned to teir will.

Fri, 2010-10-29 20:19 — Arthur Williamson (not verified)

Thanks to the brutal economic policies of the coalition government, the Lib Dems have slumped in the polls and lost a huge chunk in their membership, and the situation will worsen next year as the spending cuts begin to bite and more and more Lib Dem supporters will feel betrayed.

Bearing this fact in mind, the AV result is doesn`t make a blind bit of difference because the Lib Dems cannot afford to have a general election irrespective of whatever voting system is in place, such is their loss of popularity.

The yellows have 2 choices, they can stick it out in the hope that the economy will have turned the corner within 5 years, or, alternatively, they can commit political suicide by walking away from the coalition and forcing a snap election.

Fri, 2010-10-29 20:20 — ang (not verified)

Morecambe and Wise (PIC) WITHOUT THE HUMOUR. GOD I HATE THEM!!!!!!

Fri, 2010-10-29 20:45 — ang (not verified)

David Cameron and Nick Clegg, they sound queer, they look queer.
THEIR POLICIES ARE EXTREMELY QUEEER!
No offence to homosexuals. Whitehouse
and Enfiled sketch very funny.

Fri, 2010-10-29 21:59 — frances smith (not verified)

alternatively, some saner voices in the lib dems could realise that their only way out of this mess is to leave the coalition, and then force the conservatives to govern without a majority. if they left clegg, and the others that were most guilty, inside the conservatives they might recover some of their vote. and clegg would be no great loss, and nobody knows or cares who danny alexander is anyway, so they might as well.

Fri, 2010-10-29 22:37 — praha7 (not verified)

I have spent quite a few years living in countries run by coalition governments.
They have all had one thing in common and that is that they will do anything to avoid losing power.I don't think that this one will be any different, whatever the result of the referendum they will hang on as long as they can.

Fri, 2010-10-29 22:43 — ang (not verified)

Francis: Danny Alexander is a frightening Tory robot and needs to be deleted!
This coalition is based on ideology, lies and deceit and the British public deserve more than that.

Sat, 2010-10-30 12:00 — Phil (not verified)

Wrong question.
"Would a no on AV make Nick Clegg p***ed off?"
Answer: Yes.

So I'll be voting to wipe that smile off his smug face.

Sat, 2010-10-30 14:14 — Lou (not verified)

Clegg and the Lib Dems as far as I can see are damned whatever. If they win the AV vote and go it alone again, they'll say they were the tempering voice in Govt and how they made things better than they could have been, but what chance is there of the wider public beieving a word they say and electing them to power as they've totally sold out on their manifesto and ideals?

I don't buy their defence - that it's a coalition and that's what people do - because they could have held out for more of their policies and if they'd put their foot down a little more, I'm sure they would have got more concessions their way.

I don't buy the spin pitch of it's because the economy was in such a mess either.

If they stay with the coalition, then they're equally as screwed because vast amounts of people will do their best to ensure we don't have a coalition again.

Personally, I don't think there will be this miracle economy by 2014 where we will all be blinded with science, baffled with BS and offered tax breaks as sweeteners for the next election. I think the handling of the economy by the coalition is wrong and with the global econmic prospects, come 2011 and 2012 we'll be in an even worse mess than now.

Ang, re Danny Alexander, if Osborne told him to jump off a cliff he would, he's like a besotted puppy taken in by a rottweiler.

Harriet has laid into Alexander at the Scottish Labour conference this morning, I'm trying to find it on line at the moment, if I do - I'll post the link.

Sat, 2010-10-30 14:20 — Lou (not verified)

Ang,
Link re Danny Alexander. Sjhe called him a ginger rodent apparently. That's awfully insulting - to rodents - being compared to Danny Alexander!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-11658228

Sat, 2010-10-30 14:57 — Dave (not verified)

It was Conservative votes that kept Labour in power for 13 years - a de facto coalition.

And Labour would have formed a coaltion with the Lib Dems if the numbers stacked up, hence Brown's belated promise of an AV referendum.

But as it turned out the Conservatives did a deal with Lib Dems.

Essentially we are always ruled by some form of coalition government.

Therefore change the voting system to reflect the reality and make things more representative and transparent.

Sat, 2010-10-30 17:27 — Geraint (not verified)

The lying Liberals won't leave the coalition if there is a yes vote, or a no vote. It would be politically damaging for them, and will reveal them for the opportunist party that they are.

If the coalition is going to split, it will be because of an unforseen event, that strains the coalition too much.