Nick Clegg on the Lib Dem role in the Spending Review

Emphasises role of Lib Dem ministers in Spending Review, but denies that cuts aim to create a smalle

Nick Clegg has just sent out an email to Lib Dem members giving some of the rationale behind the Spending Review. It's very light on detail, but does provide a couple of interesting insights into how the Deputy Prime Minister is seeking to position his party politically going into this afternoon's announcement.

The core argument is, naturally, the same as the one offered by Cameron and Osborne – the outcome of the review is about fairness and, above all, cutting "Labour's deficit". But there are also certain phrases that demonstrate once again how tightly Clegg's fortunes are now tied to those of the coalition's leading Tory figures. The following paragraph is particularly interesting:

The spending review is a thoroughly Coalition product. Liberal Democrat ministers have been involved every step of the way. Our values and priorities are written through the review, like the message in a stick of rock.

As my colleagues Mehdi Hasan and James Macintyre pointed out in the run-up to the Lib Dem conference, the spending review is just the first in a series of tests for the Lib Dems as a party of government, perhaps the most significant being the local elections to come next May. But with the polling numbers long suggesting we can expect a big swell of unpopularity for this afternoon's announcement, the Spending Review isn't without its challenges for the Lib Dems. Members, and a fair number of Lib Dem MPs, will be feeling very uncomfortable this afternoon.

However, the key paragraph of the letter comes at the end, where Clegg lays out his version of the motivation behind the cuts:

We are not taking the decisions today because they are easy or because we want to see a smaller state, we are taking them because they are right.

He said something similar in his conference speech – it's clearly a line designed for the membership, many of whom will be feeling uneasy about the Tories' mantra of "smaller state, bigger society". Now that Clegg has positioned his party and his ministers so centrally to the Spending Review, it will be fascinating to see how his backbenchers choose to respond, come the inevitable fallout.

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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