The coalition's approval rating falls 11 per cent in a day

Approval for the coalition falls from +4 to -7 in wake of fees announcement.

It hasn't been the best of weeks for the coalition. David Cameron was the loser from his first PMQs bout with Ed Miliband (as even the Sun grudgingly admits) and the Lib Dems have been badly divided by the Browne report, with MPs in university seats particularly rebellious. Meanwhile, the latest daily YouGov poll shows that the government's approval rating has fallen by a remarkable 11 per cent in a single day.

Poll

After rising for much of the conference season, approval for the coalition fell from +4 to -7 per cent. The poll could, of course, be an outlier but the fact that support for Labour rose four points to 40 per cent (albeit from a low of 36 per cent) is suggestive.

Vince Cable's Damascene conversion to higher tuition fees is likely to have further alienated his party's supporters, for whom free education has become a totemic issue. Lib Dem support has fallen to 11 per cent, their joint lowest rating since 2007, and the poll found that 45 per cent of voters oppose the Browne plan, with 37 per cent in favour.

The double whammy of child benefit cuts and higher tuition fees may yet push the "squeezed middle" towards Ed Miliband.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.