Web Only: the best of the blogs

The five must-read blogs from today on Andrew Marr, Phil Woolas and the mid-terms.

1. Andrew Marr criticises bloggers. Is it 2005 again?

The Telegraph's Shane Richmond says that Andrew Marr's attack on bloggers shows how out of touch he is.

2. Why Phil Woolas is unfit to be on the Labour frontbench

Liberal Conspiracy's Sunny Hundal says that Phil Woolas's attempt to conflate immigration with extremism means he has no place on Labour's frontbench.

3. Housing benefit changes even more unfair than child benefit cuts

Over at Left Foot Forward, Pete Challis warns that the coalition's universal benefits cap takes no account of housing costs, family size or council tax.

4. Nick Clegg averted the axe from over-16s' child benefit

At Liberal Democrat Voice, Helen Duffett says that Nick Clegg prevented the abolition of child benefit for 16-18 year olds.

5. Incumbents Polling Below 50% Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver explains why candidates who are below the magic number of 50 per cent shouldn't lose all hope.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.