Will this picture come back to haunt Nick Clegg?

He was among 57 Lib Dem MPs who signed an NUS pledge to vote against any rise in university tuition

It's been reported today that John Browne's forthcoming review of university finances is likely to favour higher tuition fees over Vince Cable's proposed graduate tax. The review, due to be published on 11 October, is unconvinced by Cable's plans, which break the link between student and university.

The proposals are expected to allow vice-chancellors to raise their fees enough to allow a market between universities -- £6,000 or £7,000 a year.

For the Liberal Democrats, this is problematic. For many years, one of its flagship policies has been opposition to any form of tuition fees at all.

The coalition agreement makes a brief reference to this potential crisis:

If the response of the government to Lord Browne's report is one that Liberal Democrats cannot accept, then arrangements will be made to enable Liberal Democrat MPs to abstain in any vote.

But will this be sufficient? As Greg Hurst points out in the Times (£), the NUS rather astutely persuaded all 57 Lib Dem MPs -- including Vince Cable and Nick Clegg -- to sign a pledge saying that they would vote against any rise in tuition fees.

Clegg can be seen above proudly holding his signed pledge. Here is what he said at the time:

Labour and the Conservatives have been trying to keep tuition fees out of this election campaign. Despite the huge financial strain fees already place on Britain's young people, it is clear both Labour and the Conservatives want to lift the cap on fees . . .

The Liberal Democrats are different. Not only will we oppose any raising of the cap, we will scrap tuition fees for good, including for part-time students . . . Students can make the difference in countless seats in this election. Use your vote to block those unfair tuition fees and get them scrapped once and for all.

If he sticks to abstention -- as laid out in the coalition agreement -- rather than actively opposing any fee hike, Clegg will be hoping that students don't take this advice too literally and punish the Lib Dems at the next election.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.