Why the Republican Party is a spider, but the Tea Party is a starfish

(And why the Tea Party has more in common with Al Qaeda than it thinks.)

The Tea Party has more in common with Al Qaeda than it would like to think. Both are of an extremely religious bent. Both hate Barack Obama. And both are starfish organisations - at least according to Jonathan Rauch of the National Journal..

Rauch uses Ori Brafman and Rod A. Beckstrom's model of the spider and the starfish and applies it to the relationship between the Republican Party and its troublesome base movement. Spider organisations, Brafman and Beckstrom argue are:

"centralized and have clear organs and structure. You know who is in charge. You see them coming."

The Republican Party is pretty much a spider organisation, with established means of fundraising and a centralised bureaucracy. Starfish organisations on the other hand:

"tend to organize around a shared ideology or a simple platform for communication - around ideologies, like al Qaeda or Alcoholics Anonymous. They arise rapidly around the simplest ideas or platforms. Ideas or platforms that can be easily duplicated. Once they arrive they can be massively disruptive and are here to stay, for good or bad. And the Internet can help them flourish."

Sound familiar? The Tea Party movement is undoubtedly a starfish organisation. It has a basic, shared ideology (very conservative, very Christian). It has used the internet, particularly social media, to spread its message - and it has caused massive disruption for the Republican Party. Just watch Karl Rove's tetchy interview with Sean Hannity about the Tea Party's latest success, Christine O'Donnell, to see how the Tea Party is affecting the Republican establishment.

Starfish organisations have the upper hand today, argue Brafman and Beckstrom - and the Tea Party's recent successes certainly backs this up. Watch the video below for Rauch's explanation.

 

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
Show Hide image

Will Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister after the 2017 general election?

Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election? 

Jeremy Corbyn could be the next prime minister. Admittedly, it’s highly unlikely. After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. Labour behind in the latest general election polls and underperformed badly in the recent local elections. But since the election was called, Labour’s position in the polls has been improving. Can we trust the general election polls?

This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum. It’s also not Corbyn’s first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister? 

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister after the general election 2017?

Do the polls predict a Labour victory?

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls give Labour ratings in the mid 30s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s. Recent improvements in Labour’s standing still leave Jeremy Corbyn a long way from becoming prime minister.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

What is Labour's record on elections?

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4 per cent of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

0800 7318496