Tea party victories provide hope for Democrats

The latest primary victories for anti-establishment and Tea Party candidates could give the Democrat

The electoral backlash from US conservatives has intensified, as Tea Party candidates once again confounded commentators by defeating mainstream Republican candidates in the latest round of congressional primaries.

Undoubtedly the biggest upset of the night came from the traditionally-Democrat state of Delaware, where Sarah Palin-endorsed Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell defeated long-serving Congressman and former governor Mike Castle to be the Republican candidate for Vice President Joe Biden's former Senate seat.

O'Donnell, who is pro-gun, anti-abortion, fiscally conservative and believes masturbation is a sin, defeated Castle with 53 per cent of the vote. Given that just a week ago O'Donnell was engaged in bitter in-fighting with some of Delaware's elected Republican officials and had been termed "unelectable" by some fellow Republicans, her victory in last night's primary is not only a blow to the GOP, which committed significant resources to the fight in Delaware in an attempt to prevent a repeat of the upset in Alaska, but also adds yet another dimension of unpredictability to the final outcome of November's midterm elections.

The majority of states have now held their primaries. Eight mainstream Republican candidates have been defeated by Tea Party or otherwise right-wing challengers, a number which could rise to nine pending the outcome of the recount in New Hampshire.

The consensus, especially from the left-leaning commentariat, seems to be that while these primary victories for anti-incumbent candidates demonstrate the power and reach of this new right-wing movement, it is very unlikely that any of these challengers will be victorious in the midterms themselves.

In an election season that had otherwise long been considered to be potentially disastrous for the Democrats, with the possibility that the Republicans could regain control of both the House and the Senate, these ultra-conservative candidates represent an opportunity to claw back some momentum in advance of polling day. For instance, Delaware, previously considered to be a serious prospect for the Republicans, is now much more likely to be a hold for the Democrats, especially if their candidate, Chris Coons, is able to capitalise on Christine O'Donnell's unpopularity with a significant faction of Delaware Republicans.

Just as a footnote, it's worth noting that the electoral fortunes of some of these insurgent candidates could have a knock-on effect for Sarah Palin's presidential hopes. Palin notably endorsed Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Carly Fiorina in California, as well as O'Donnell in Delaware. As she is apparently already moving into position for a 2012 campaign, embarrassing defeats for candidates Palin has personally endorsed and campaigned for could dent her appeal to Republicans beyond the confines of the Tea Party movement.

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May could live to regret not putting Article 50 to a vote sooner

Today's Morning Call.

Theresa May will reveal her plan to Parliament, Downing Street has confirmed. They will seek to amend Labour's motion on Article 50 adding a note of support for the principle of triggering Article 50 by March 2017, in a bid to flush out the diehard Remainers.

Has the PM retreated under heavy fire or pulled off a clever gambit to take the wind out of Labour's sails while keeping her Brexit deal close to her chest? 

Well, as ever, you pays your money and you makes your choice. "May forced to reveal Brexit plan to head off Tory revolt" is the Guardian's splash. "PM caves in on plans for Brexit" is the i's take. "May goes into battle for Brexit" is the Telegraph's, while Ukip's Pravda aka the Express goes for "MPs to vote on EU exit today".

Who's right? Well, it's a bit of both. That the government has only conceded to reveal "a plan" might mean further banalities on a par with the PM's one-liner yesterday that she was seeking a "red white and blue Brexit" ie a special British deal. And they've been aided by a rare error by Labour's new star signing Keir Starmer. Hindsight is 20:20, but if he'd demanded a full-blown white paper the government would be in a trickier spot now. 

But make no mistake: the PM didn't want to be here. It's worth noting that if she had submitted Article 50 to a parliamentary vote at the start of the parliamentary year, when Labour's frontbench was still cobbled together from scotch-tape and Paul Flynn and the only opposition MP seemed to be Nicky Morgan, she'd have passed it by now - or, better still for the Tory party, she'd be in possession of a perfect excuse to reestablish the Conservative majority in the House of Lords. May's caution made her PM while her more reckless colleagues detonated - but she may have cause to regret her caution over the coming months and years.

PANNICK! AT THE SUPREME COURT

David Pannick, Gina Miller's barrister, has told the Supreme Court that it would be "quite extraordinary" if the government's case were upheld, as it would mean ministers could use prerogative powers to reduce a swathe of rights without parliamentary appeal. The case hinges on the question of whether or not triggering Article 50 represents a loss of rights, something only the legislature can do.  Jane Croft has the details in the FT 

SOMETHING OF A GAMBLE

Ministers are contemplating doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would allow her to hold a second independence referendum, but only after Brexit is completed, Lindsay McIntosh reports in the Times. The right to hold a referendum is a reserved power. 

A BURKISH MOVE

Angela Merkel told a cheering crowd at the CDU conference that, where possible, the full-face veil should be banned in Germany. Although the remarks are being widely reported in the British press as a "U-Turn", Merkel has previously said the face veil is incompatible with integration and has called from them to be banned "where possible". In a boost for the Chancellor, Merkel was re-elected as party chairman with 89.5 per cent of the vote. Stefan Wagstyl has the story in the FT.

SOMEWHERE A CLOCK IS TICKING

Michael Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, has reminded the United Kingdom that they will have just 15 to 18 months to negotiate the terms of exit when Article 50 is triggered, as the remaining time will be needed for the deal to secure legislative appeal.

LEN'S LAST STAND?

Len McCluskey has quit as general secretary of Unite in order to run for a third term, triggering a power struggle with big consequences for the Labour party. Though he starts as the frontrunner, he is more vulnerable now than he was in 2013. I write on his chances and possible opposition here.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Emad asks if One Night Stand provides the most compelling account of sex and relationships in video games yet.

MUST READS

Theresa May is becoming adept at avoiding defeats says George

Liv Constable-Maxwell on what the Supreme Court protesters want

Theresa May risks becoming an accidental Europe wrecker, says Rafael Behr

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Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.