The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

One in five Lib Dem voters would switch to Labour

New poll shows that Clegg’s party has lost the support of almost four in ten of those who backed it in May.

By Samira Shackle Published 07 September 2010 10:10

The Liberal Democrats have lost the support of almost four in ten of the voters who backed the party in May, according to a new ComRes/Independent poll.

More than one in five people who voted for the Lib Dems say they would now vote Labour. This number has risen to 22 per cent, up from 15 per cent last month. A further 7 per cent would switch to the Tories. This echoes a recent Guardian/ICM poll, which also showed that one in five Lib Dem voters would defect to Labour.

The new ComRes poll showed that just 62 per cent of those who voted Lib Dem would do so again if another election were held today. Slightly down from the ICM poll, which showed that seven in ten voters would stick with the party, this is yet more evidence that Clegg's party will take a hammering in the next general election.

The number could fall further as Lib Dem activists begin to feel disgruntled. Last week, a survey of 600 party members showed support for the coalition falling to 45 per cent in August from 57 per cent in July, although generally support for its existence was high.

It's not all bad news for the Lib Dems, though -- the headline figures in the ComRes poll showed support for the party stabilising. Despite the increased number of voters claiming they would defect to Labour, Clegg's party still gained 18 per cent of the vote (compared to the 23 per cent they secured in the general election). This is a marked improvement on a YouGov poll last week, which put them on a low of 11 per cent.

Arguably, Labour is the real winner from this. Up 1 point to 34 per cent, they are just 4 points behind the Tories, who were down 1 on 38. Quite apart from the support the party is gaining from disillusioned Lib Dem voters, it is likely to benefit once the full pain of deep public spending cuts hits.

Tags: Liberal Democrats Polls

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6 comments

Tue, 2010-09-07 12:37 — homer (not verified)

People say they want cuts. No one likes cuts when they are introduced. Lib-Dam in the next election will be none existence. Labour only has to wait , victory will be theirs.

Tue, 2010-09-07 12:41 — Andrew Wimble (not verified)

There is another issue that is costing the Lib Dems votes.

At the last General Election I think the Lib Dems benifited from a lot of labour voters who were sick to death of Gordon Brown deciding to vote Lib Dem instead. Now that Brown is history I expect that a lot of those will have returned to supporting Labour

Tue, 2010-09-07 12:20 — alan (not verified)

Other than the fact i don't see this government lasting its term i agree with a lot of what Same said.

Tue, 2010-09-07 10:57 — Clem the Gem

Interesting to see how many LD voters switched, and where to in the last election.

Tue, 2010-09-07 10:57 — swatantra nandanwar

No doubt these are the same floating voters that switch their allegances whenever it suits their pockets.
They left Labour to vote Tory and Lib Dem and BNP and ULIP, and will give their support to Labour, if Labour makes it worth their while.
I'm really at a loss to know what to make of this fickle bunch of voters.
But, Labour should under no circumstances pander to them, but stick to its principles of equality and sovcial justice.

Tue, 2010-09-07 11:30 — Sam (not verified)

Swantantra - not all people treat a political party like their football team and support them regardless of their policies. I think it's ridiculous that people have some kind of loyalty to political parties; you should vote for the group of people who feel have the best policies for the country.

The polls today do not matter much that we have over four years till the next election.
I personally think the cuts won't be as deep as currently suggested. I think it's a political tactic, and come the spending review Cameron could be saying how he's done everything he can to protect services whilst cutting the deficit. But the most important factor will be the Labour leader. How they perform over the next four years will obviously be the key thing. Will they be able to get a lead in the polls going into the next election? I like Ed Miliband but I don't think he's leadership material, but he has four years to mature so he could be ready by then, so I'm inclined to think that David Miliband would probably be the one who has a chance of getting Labour the victory.

It will be tough regardless of what happens over the next four years, I don't think the British public are going to give a party a large majority for a long time to come.