The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Ed Miliband now bookies’ favourite to win Labour leadership

Both the punters and the pollsters now predict an Ed Miliband victory.

By George Eaton Published 24 September 2010 10:34

The votes may be in and counting may have began, but with the result of the Labour leadership election just a day away, Ed Miliband is gathering some final momentum.

Within the past few minutes, it's emerged that he is now the bookies' favourite to win the contest, the first time the markets have put him ahead of David. The news means that both the pollsters and the punters are predicting an Ed Miliband victory on Saturday.

Below are the latest odds from Political Smarkets:

Odds

Over at PoliticalBetting, Mike Smithson is calling it for Ed, noting that the younger Miliband appears to have gained ground in the MP/MEP third of the electoral college.

Elsewhere, the Guardian reports that David will serve under Ed if he loses the election, a sign that the elder Miliband's camp is at least preparing for the possibility of defeat.

Meanwhile, the other candidates are beginning to take stock of their campaigns. Ed Balls all but concedes defeat, suggesting that his close association with Gordon Brown proved fatal.

He says:

Gordon lost the election, and I was the person most associated with his leadership. Early on in the crucial first few months everyone was looking backwards to Brown, and saying it was time to move on . . . A lot of people have said to me: "You have fought the best campaign, but this is a two-horse race." It was very hard to break through that.

Andy Burnham criticises the electoral college system and calls for its replacement with a one-member-one vote system. He points out, as I have done before, that the vote of one MP is worth 600 times the vote of an ordinary party member. Whoever wins the leadership should put reform of the voting system on their agenda.

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Tags: Labour leadership

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29 comments

Fri, 2010-09-24 12:56 — Smarkets (not verified)

If you are going to use our odds you should link to us

https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/official-labour-candidates/labour-leade...

Sat, 2010-09-25 18:26 — MJG1978 (not verified)

This feels like this generation of the Labour Party's "Michael Foot moment". Best not assume the coalition will roll over and capitulate in 2015..

Fri, 2010-09-24 18:44 — CrISpY DuCk

Ed Miliband is one of the few to really grasp the non racist working class genuine and I stress NON RACIST concerns over immigration.

" we need to be willing to talk about the issue of immigration, but the question is what should be done to address the underlying causes of people’s concerns about immigration. The most important thing is to address issues of living standards, housing etc, which have driven that concern. And to have a convincing story about how we can make people’s lives better."

Labour lost much ground in the last election for failing to listen to the voters partly because immigration is a taboo subject amongst the middle class left.Well it's not taboo amongst the working classes who are directly affected by more competion in the employment and social housing markets.
I like Ed I think he has his finger on the pulse and look forward to him one day tackling the unemployment and social housing problems and redistributing the nations whilst and at the same time addressing the genuine concerns of black and white working class people.You see it's not really about immigration at all it's about the working class people of this country wondering how they are going to put a loaf of bread on the table and I think Ed gets that.

Fri, 2010-09-24 19:26 — paul (not verified)

if ed wins a disaster for the labour party!he appeals to the labour party but will never win a general election
im looking at 10 years at least in opposition if he wins!
the london party had more sense and packed ken who they think can win
they should have done the same and backed david who can win as well
a disaster

Fri, 2010-09-24 19:45 — swatantra nandanwar

The Party has a propensity for making things difficult for itself and for shooting itself in the foot on occasions.

Fri, 2010-09-24 20:03 — CrISpY DuCk

Why can't he win Paul.Doesn't he do enough to appease Rupert Murdoch ?
Is looking for a fairer deal for the poor and needy an awful thing to aspire to just because Fleet St/Wapping or wherever they base themselves these days tell you it is.

Fri, 2010-09-24 20:21 — CrISpY DuCk

I think we have to actually try and get away from this notion that we have somehow to be endorsed by the media and the moguls who control it.Labour has hopefully learned from past mistakes and is ready to tackle the media head on.It would be just as absurd for the Tory party to elect leaders on the basis of whether they'd be endorsed by the likes of TNS etc.

Fri, 2010-09-24 20:49 — Rich (not verified)

Whoever is elected will lead Labour to a poll victory. By the time of the next election, the Tories will be very unpopular due to their severe ideological cuts and the LibDems will get buried. Ed and David would both be great leaders.

Fri, 2010-09-24 21:27 — llanystumdwy

Some who suggest that Labour will walk the next election because of the cuts are deluding themselves. First, Labour has a bad reputation after the dreadful leadership of the Brown years. Also, if the economy improves by the next election and the coalition's charge that Labour got us into this mess sticks, then Labour could again find itself in opposition for a very long time.
Even if the economy does not improve there is no guarantee that Labour will win the next election on a plate, for remember that Thatchers Tories won the 1983 and 1987 elections with landslide victories, despite implementing very severe cuts during this period.

Fri, 2010-09-24 21:39 — Hova (not verified)

If Blair could win an election despite the iraq war, cutting civil liberties and free market orienteerism, we cannot assume that the cuts being made right now will necessarily make the tories unelectable.

in fact, i reckon that with ed as labour leader, we could be looking at a tory majority in 2015.

Fri, 2010-09-24 11:19 — swatantra nandanwar

Andy's got a point; its an absolute disgrace that some 'members' have more than one vote; introduce OMOV now for future elections.
I'm almost tempted to put £10 on Andy and invest in a new gas boiler this winter.
Looked in on the Abbott and Portillo show last night. Dianes becoming more and more unbearable to watch; and so is Portillo, and so was guest Kennedy

Sat, 2010-09-25 22:29 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

We shall see Hova, if we both are spared till 2015, then you owe me a drink!

Fri, 2010-09-24 12:18 — Hova (not verified)

Oh shit.

Well, 5 years more in opposition then, eh.

Fri, 2010-09-24 22:30 — paul (not verified)

well crispy duck the media is powerful and they wil come down heavy on him as a leftie in the hold of the trade unions etc did u notice how all the sections of the media were screaming he was unelectable.i cant even see him face david cameron in prime ministers questions.he labour party has elected someone that can make them feel good but will be damaged by the press in a general election nice guy with good values but not goin to win a general election i preferred oona king but only ken has the clout to win pity but true!!

Fri, 2010-09-24 23:01 — Geraint (not verified)

This "Red Ed" rubbish, the lies, the bile that David team have spread about Ed, calling him a raving leftie, by David Miliband's team will come abd bite Labour in the backside, if Ed wins. If Labour is shooting itself in it's foot, it be because of the Blairite right and David Miliband's campaign team, and not because of the Labour membership.

Fri, 2010-09-24 23:33 — Findiglay (not verified)

I hope party members have voted with their heads and not their hearts, painfull as it might be. David is a clear ticket to victory in 2015. I am confident that the British public will not abide a man with a 'lisp' in office. The 'X Factor' has much to owe to comtemporary politics in this country.

Fri, 2010-09-24 13:16 — Geraint (not verified)

Great. Ed Miliband is the best person who will be best placed to win the next election for Labour.

Fri, 2010-09-24 13:22 — bonk (not verified)

Wonderful going to have to get used to being in opposition then,going to be a long 10 years i fear

Fri, 2010-09-24 13:38 — Lou (not verified)

It's wrong that an MPs vote is worth 600 times the ordinary party member. It should simply be one person, one vote. Under this system it hardly represents the ordinary party member's opinions does it.

Do they provide a breakdown of how the votes were cast as I would be interested to see who won as far as the ordinary party voter was concerned.

I don't want either Milliband, although I'd rather Ed than David. I voted for Ed Balls with Diane Abbott as my second preference. Ed Balls wasn't even a choice at the candidacy announcements for me - I felt there should have been a none of the above option at one point in the race - but over time, listening to him, seeing him actually take on the Coalition in the House - Gove on Academies and BSF, Osborne and Alexander on the Economy, his straight talking approach on the cuts and what needed to be done was far more noteworthy than the other candidates who barely turned up for any important debate let alone stood up and challenged the Government in the House.

Fri, 2010-09-24 13:41 — bonk (not verified)

Balls did impress as time went on but he's an attack dog who should be used wisely by whoever wins and yes the rules have to be changed to make it OMOV

Sat, 2010-09-25 05:47 — John O'Byrne (not verified)

Ed has won!

Sat, 2010-09-25 08:24 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Labour not being my party (I'm a Liberal Democrat), it's not really my place to comment on here about the result.

I would like to say though, that it looks to the public that this campaign has been remarkably clean and civilised, so much better than the Blair Brown warfare. I congradulate the candidates.

The Liberal Democrats will however increase their vote on their performance over the next five years.

Sat, 2010-09-25 10:52 — Hova (not verified)

@stuart : Unfortunately, even at times of success, the 'junior' of the coalition never fares well.

Whether Osborne-onomics works or not, The Libs will plummet in 2015. Don't shoot the messenger though, that is just politics.

Ofc, the tories might make a pact with your lot, but then you will always be referred to as the conservative poodles. I'd rather have my dignity than that.