New poll puts Labour ahead for first time since 2007

A major psychological boost for Ed Miliband.

Ed Miliband's big day has got off to a good start, with a poll putting Labour ahead of the Tories for the first time since the election that never was in 2007. The latest daily YouGov poll has Labour up two to 40 per cent, the Tories unchanged on 39 per cent and the Lib Dems down from a post-conference high of 15 per cent to 12. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would give Labour a majority of 10 seats.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung Parliament, Labour 16 seats short

All political parties usually receive a poll bounce from their conference and, indeed, when a new leader takes over. But this is still a major psychological boost for the party and Miliband. It highlights why the right are entirely wrong to dismiss Miliband as Labour's William Hague or even Iain Duncan Smith. It took three and a half years and the fuel strike for a poll to put Hague's Conservatives ahead. We'll get a better idea after today's speech of the Miliband dividend Labour can expect to receive.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Ignored by the media, the Liberal Democrats are experiencing a revival

The crushed Liberals are doing particularly well in areas that voted Conservative in 2015 - and Remain in 2016. 

The Liberal Democrats had another good night last night, making big gains in by-elections. They won Adeyfield West, a seat they have never held in Dacorum, with a massive swing. They were up by close to the 20 points in the Derby seat of Allestree, beating Labour into second place. And they won a seat in the Cotswolds, which borders the vacant seat of Witney.

It’s worth noting that they also went backwards in a safe Labour ward in Blackpool and a safe Conservative seat in Northamptonshire.  But the overall pattern is clear, and it’s not merely confined to last night: the Liberal Democrats are enjoying a mini-revival, particularly in the south-east.

Of course, it doesn’t appear to be making itself felt in the Liberal Democrats’ poll share. “After Corbyn's election,” my colleague George tweeted recently, “Some predicted Lib Dems would rise like Lazarus. But poll ratings still stuck at 8 per cent.” Prior to the local elections, I was pessimistic that the so-called Liberal Democrat fightback could make itself felt at a national contest, when the party would have to fight on multiple fronts.

But the local elections – the first time since 1968 when every part of the mainland United Kingdom has had a vote on outside of a general election – proved that completely wrong. They  picked up 30 seats across England, though they had something of a nightmare in Stockport, and were reduced to just one seat in the Welsh Assembly. Their woes continued in Scotland, however, where they slipped to fifth place. They were even back to the third place had those votes been replicated on a national scale.

Polling has always been somewhat unkind to the Liberal Democrats outside of election campaigns, as the party has a low profile, particularly now it has just eight MPs. What appears to be happening at local by-elections and my expectation may be repeated at a general election is that when voters are presented with the option of a Liberal Democrat at the ballot box they find the idea surprisingly appealing.

Added to that, the Liberal Democrats’ happiest hunting grounds are clearly affluent, Conservative-leaning areas that voted for Remain in the referendum. All of which makes their hopes of a good second place in Witney – and a good night in the 2017 county councils – look rather less farfetched than you might expect. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.