David Miliband tops poll of Labour councillors

Ed Miliband comes second with 43 per cent to his brother’s 57; Ed Balls is eliminated first.

The BBC's Daily Politics show will shortly unveil the results of a new poll of Labour councillors in which David Miliband comes out first with 57 per cent of the vote, compared to his brother's 43.

Diane Abbott came third on first preferences, but the more surprising fact, perhaps, is that Ed Balls was eliminated first, with just 8 per cent, with Andy Burnham bowing out in the next round.

However, it is definitely worth noting that this poll was conducted by ComRes between 23 July and 10 August, so it will not reflect any of the more recent events in the leadership contest, in particular, Balls's recent strong performance opposing the coalition on the deficit, and the Blairites' intervention in the struggle between the Milibands.

And, need one say, a poll of 265 councillors is hardly representative of Labour's electoral college as a whole. But perhaps what this poll does reiterate is how vital second preferences are going to be in determining who becomes Labour's next leader.

Full results (via Left Foot Forward)

First preference votes

88 (33%) David Miliband
69 (26%) Ed Miliband
55 (21%) Diane Abbott
33 (12%) Andy Burnham
20 (8%) Ed Balls

Elimination round 1

96 (36%) David Miliband
74 (28%) Ed Miliband
62 (23%) Diane Abbott
33 (12%) Andy Burnham
1st eliminated: Ed Balls

Elimination round 2

110 (42%) David Miliband
82 (31%) Ed Miliband
73 (28%) Diane Abbott
2nd eliminated: Andy Burnham
1st eliminated: Ed Balls

Elimination round 3

152 (57%) David Miliband
113 (43%) Ed Miliband
3rd eliminated: Diane Abbott
2nd eliminated: Andy Burnham
1st eliminated: Ed Balls

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

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When Donald Trump talks, remember that Donald Trump almost always lies

Anyone getting excited about a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom should pay more attention to what Trump does, not what he says. 

Celebrations all round at the Times, which has bagged the first British newspaper interview with President-Elect Donald Trump.

Here are the headlines: he’s said that the EU has become a “vehicle for Germany”, that Nato is “obsolete” as it hasn’t focused on the big issue of the time (tackling Islamic terrorism), and that he expects that other countries will join the United Kingdom in leaving the European Union.

But what will trigger celebrations outside of the News Building is that Trump has this to say about a US-UK trade deal: his administration will ““work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly”. Time for champagne at Downing Street?

When reading or listening to an interview with Donald Trump, don’t forget that this is the man who has lied about, among other things, who really paid for gifts to charity on Celebrity Apprentice, being named Michigan’s Man of the Year in 2011, and making Mexico pay for a border wall between it and the United States. So take everything he promises with an ocean’s worth of salt, and instead look at what he does.   

Remember that in the same interview, the President-Elect threatened to hit BMW with sanctions over its decision to put a factory in Mexico, not the United States. More importantly, look at the people he is appointing to fill key trade posts: they are not free traders or anything like it. Anyone waiting for a Trump-backed trade deal that is “good for the UK” will wait a long time.

And as chess champion turned Putin-critic-in-chief Garry Kasparov notes on Twitter, it’s worth noting that Trump’s remarks on foreign affairs are near-identical to Putin’s. The idea that Nato’s traditional purpose is obsolete and that the focus should be on Islamic terrorism, meanwhile, will come as a shock to the Baltic states, and indeed, to the 650 British soldiers who have been sent to Estonia and Poland as part of a Nato deployment to deter Russian aggression against those countries.

All in all, I wouldn’t start declaring the new President is good news for the UK just yet.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.