Blair endorses Cameron’s economic policy
Says he would have raised VAT and reduced the Budget deficit faster than Brown.
By George Eaton Published 01 September 2010 10:27
When David Cameron declared, at a 2005 dinner with newspaper executives, that he was "the heir to Blair" he was more right than he could have known.
In his memoir A Journey, Blair offers the coalition's economic policy his unequivocal endorsement and dismisses Gordon Brown as a retrograde Keynesian. He laments that Brown "bought completely the Keynesian 'state is back in fashion' thesis".
Had Blair led Labour into the election, he would have supported a "gradual rise in VAT", he says, a faster pace of deficit reduction and smaller increases in direct taxation.
Here's the key passage:
We should have taken a New Labour way out of the economic crisis: kept direct taxes competitive, had a gradual rise in VAT and other indirect taxes to close the deficit, and used the crisis to push further and faster on reform.
We've long known that while Blair reluctantly supported the new 45p top tax rate, he was opposed to the introduction of the 50p rate -- one of Labour's most popular policies.
On the deficit, he strikes a remarkably Cameron-sounding note:
If governments don't tackle deficits, the bill is footed by taxpayers, who fear that big deficits mean big taxes, both of which reduce confidence, investment and purchasing power.
To my mind, Labour is fortunate that Blair was not in power at the time of the financial crisis. Unlike Brown, he may not have supported the fiscal stimulus that prevented the economy from going into a death spiral.
Writing about the 2010 election, Blair also claims that the public elected "the government they wanted". In fact, most people voted for parties (Labour and the Lib Dems) that opposed immediate cuts in public spending and argued for a slower pace of deficit reduction. What they got was a government committed to economically reckless cuts and to a savage and regressive deficit reduction programme.
But, reading Blair's book, I'm inclined to ask: is there any policy of the coalition's that he disagrees with? The uncomfortable answer for his Labour admirers is: perhaps not.
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22 comments
Who gives a fuck what Tony Blair thinks?
If Blair hadn't been ousted by that gonk Brown then this country would be in a far better state now, and Labour still in power. That's what Brown will have to remember for the rest of his life; he ousted Blair because of his vanity and sense of being 'born to rule' (only he shared it, everyone else who knew him didn't), and the result was that he let the Tories back in.
@ Natalie, 1002: Hmm, why should the author 'calm down'? And why is the article 'embarrassing'? For someone expressing such authorial condescension, your comment lacks any sort of clarity.
@ Charliechops1: The problem, Charlie, is that (a) VAT is a very regressive form of taxation, as it directly impacts the lowest-income brackets the hardest. And (b) that the whole point, in the midst of the actual downturn, cutting spending is the last thing the UK should have been doing.
Tony Blair seems to be pulling the ol' Chicago School of Economics switcharoo, doubly so. Firstly, he implicitly buys the argument that there is no such thing as a DEMAND-side recession, only supply-side ones. Consequently, rapid deficit-cutting and 'reform' (the supply side, fuck the worker sort) are his quick-fix du jour. Only thing is, most economists and economic policymakers worldwide actually got this one right and realised we were facing a near-total meltdown on the demand side--and so demand-side solutions were in order. That is what Martin Wolf over at the FT indirectly pointed out today: without demand-side stimulus (monetary, as per arch-monetarist Milton Friedman, and fiscal) the US economy (as an example) would have contracted nearly 12% (3 times what it did) with attendant unemployment at an eye-watering 16.5%. Blair is obviously dating himself here: like apparently everyone from the boomer generation, he's obsessed with what was a one-off supply-side shock in the 1970s (the oil schocks), which produced lots of inflation and stangant economic growth, but which has nothing to do with our present crisis--which is similar to the Great Depression in the 1930s. Old habits die hard, and Tony--and the monetarist instinct in New Labour and the Tories today--reflects that.
Secondly, he neglects that investor confidence practically demanded--and demands--a vigorous response. Bond yields in the major developed economies have fallen to historic levels--what this means is that, far from putting a break to further public spending as a means to pull out of this mess, governments across the world are being given the green light through ridiculously inexpensive borrowing terms from the market to borrow and spend. Why is that? Because investors aren't investing privately, and short of that investment the economy won't produce sufficient aggregate demand for economic growth. Investment ISN'T being crowded out, Tony; and thanks to excellent borrowing terms, taxes in future will hardly be affected by historically-low future interest liabilities.
Oh the facts, so easy to ignore, so difficult to refute.
I would be the first in line to agree that economics was never Blair's forte. That has become apparent from his handling of the euro amongst other episodes.
But Blair is right (although this extract is sketchy on detail) if his argument that Labour should have been more credible & clearer with their plans to tackle the deficit.
I wouldn't agree with him that a nebulous "reform" is a proper replacement for keynesian counter-cyclical fiscal policy.
Oh and as for the NS moaning about how the country didn't elect the current government, I have to laugh.
The country did choose the current government because muppets like this magazine urged people to vote for the lib dems - because they somehow forgot Nick Clegg's speech in autumn 2009 where he talked of the need for "savage cuts" or "progressive austerity".
"It becomes clearer that any good done by the last Labour administration had very little to do with this man."
Too true Clem-the-Gem. Blair was the Tory leader that they wished they'd had ... hence heir(s)-to-Blair Cameron (and Clegg)... All highly ambitious, narcissists without any political principles and a ruthless determination to be at the top.
PS Natalie - I don't find this article at all embarrassing or bitter. I like and agree with George's personal comments.
yep george is up there with mehdi
And tony should be a crack addict by now
I think Gordon Brown would have advised against this and been right. Stay out of politics please Mr Blair!
Blair would have loved to do what Cameron is planning now - but he had the unions and his party in the way.
@RCMoya612 i think alistair darling also thought increasing VAT was a good idea simply because it's an easy tax to collect and perhaps because the richer you are the more you may contribute perhaps this could have been off-set by increasing the range of zero-rated goods i.e. making more basic essential products zero-rated. in terms of demand in the economy i think there needs to be a seperation between good spending and bad spending under the last government there was too much bad spending which crowded out good spending - i for one like the idea of increased transparency the coalition gov't is keen on any expenditure over £500 should be published so we the people can decide if it is good or bad.
As my favourite rappers says 'Game recognize Game!'
David Cameron will be the best Prime Minister in British history and I think Tony Blair knows it!
George you are not being completely honest in your reportage here.
I suggest you read the book.
This is classic overkill reporting! Take a line or two and it can mean anything you want; read it in context and it can take on a whole new meaning. I'll reserve my judgment until I've read the book, others should do likewise.
Tony Blair has written a book about how he saw the leadership from his perspective, that's an entirely valid right to express his thoughts. Those that take the time and trouble to read the book may or may not end up changing their views
on Tony Blair, but taking extracts from it is meaningless unless an attempt is made to understand the whole story.
So Blair is a Tory. So what's new?
Tony Blair has often been described as Margaret Thatcher with a smile instead of a handbag. David Cameron is often described as a young Thatcherite. Now Tony Blair is endorsing the Tory-esque style spending cuts
Plenty of common ground I see.
I agree with thinkov - George is up there with Mehdi.
On TV last night with Andrew Marr, Tony Blair did admit that he and the Tories are on the same wavelength. He did however, like to see it as "the Tories copied us" rather than the other way round.
Really creepy when Blair admitted he did not want to speak out in public too much because he didn't want to 'muck things up for Cameron'! And then, quickly covered his tracks by saying that being prime minister was a difficult job and he should be allowed to get on with it in peace. Bizarre.
In future, calm down before you write an article. You're clearly very bitter about this, and it's very obvious you've written this in anger. I don't agree with what Blair has said, in fact I find it ridiculous, but this article is embarrassing.
David Miliband will now be desperate to disassociate himself from Blairism. What we're hearing today demonstrates just how right-wing this man really is.
Difficult to calm down when a former leader of the Labour party does something like this to his old comrades.
It becomes clearer that any good done by the last Labour administration had very little to do with this man.
This was a journey from comfort to comfortable smugness.
Cannot imagine any former leader being more destructive, except one, and we don't mention him that often.
The wolf in Sheep’s clothing has been exposed once again. He claims to love the labour party but he acts more like a paid up member of the Cameroon junta. I never thought it was possible to despise a politician more then I despise Thatcher, guess i was wrong!
Hold on. This is an unfair interpretation.It is clear that if Labour had raised VAT AND National Insurance it would have been possible to reduce the deficit a little faster AND to cut public expenditure less deeply and more slowly than the Coalition.In the General Election Labour, under the blessed Gordon, was not able to address the central issue of the election, cutting the defict and sustaining economic growth. How is it to be answered now?
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